The math for quitting FedEx to go to United

[GypsyPilot]

Hey all,

Just trying to quantify the decision for leaving FedEx. Right now I’m a 767 CA, but am being forced to downgrade at some point soon down to 767 FO from our latest bid. Also, our most recent TA failed (fortunately!) so we’re stuck at 2020 rates indefinitely.

Additionally, management has recently publicly stated that we are over staffed by 700 pilots so it sounds like we are headed for “4.A.2.b/c” soon (this is what FedEx does to mitigate furloughs by reducing minimum guarantee for everyone). This is triggered by two consecutive bid periods of low credit hours across the system.

Once I’m downgraded I’ll be at a rate of $202.77/hr as a 6 year widebody FO. When we hit 4.A.2.c (which management and the union has pretty much said we are headed towards), my monthly guarantee will be (54-low/68-average/81-high). I’ll probably be senior enough (as an FO) to be at the average of 68.

So I will be making $165k/year. It’s about a 50% pay cut from where I’m currently at, and it sounds like this could last several years or longer.

Looking at 2nd year NB UAL FO pay (new AIP), I see $167.57/hr with a MGT of 70 hours/mo. This is about $141k/year. The MGT I found from APC data.

United pilots, is this math correct? Or is this MGT too low? I’m very dissatisfied with FedEx, but the current numbers make it hard to leave.

 

[Seggy]

The numbers are hard to calculate beyond the 70 hours at X rate with the new work rules (reserve will go senior I think) and how bidding strategy changes when the new AIP is vote in. In my opinion even with the AIP you will be able to hold Captain pretty much immediately after a year is up. The widebody FO life is just to good for some folks to give up or not try. UAL also hasn't had their big retirement peak yet (peaks in 2028 if it stays at 65. 5300 retire in the next ten years)....so with growth and retirements you may be back in the left seat or the right seat of a wide body quickly. Of course this could change in the next second, but as you asked....

Here is a download of the AIP...

https://d2r1lrrqctgamh.cloudfront.net/UAL/TA/upa23-print-v1-2.pdf

 

[DE727UPS]

Sorry to hear what's going on with my brothers at Purple. A couple of other considerations. With your lower guarantee and presumed high seniority in the right seat, think about what your line might look like, and be sure to get a good comparison with what your work schedule would be for the same money as a junior guy at UA. There were times at Brown where I would have loved to take a 20 hour hit in monthly guarantee to work an easy schedule. In fact, I might still be on the list had their been such a thing. Second consideration is how many years you have in. To start over is pretty dramatic. I remember guys leaving left and right in the early 90's at Brown but things got better and I'm sure some regretted it. Fedex has a pretty good track record at the top of the pilot career food chain. Hard to believe it could go down the toilet just like that. I'm hoping you can hang in there a couple of years and see how it plays out. Very difficult choice you have to make. So sorry it came to this.

 

[phill1174]

I'd shoot @USN88 a message. I chatted with him a bit about this very subject and it sounds like you're in the same boat as him. He might've crunched the numbers.

 

[ClearedForOption]

Working at a shop where the (snapshot of today) attrition is amazingly high in the bottom quartile/20% range there is a lot of career calculus that you have to do.

The best piece of advice is don't take advice from random dudes on the internet, me included.

Another thought that I can throw out there is that you should talk to a financial planner and an aviation 'career counselor.' Which is exactly the advice that I give to anyone I fly with, to quote The Clash, "Should I stay or should I go now." Because even though it's not just about the money, it's also about the money.

That being said, we are really in unprecedented times and it will not last. Someday the music will stop. The L/D of Retirements and Growth will bottom out. Airlines will stagnate again and I almost want to say that the pendulum will swing as far to the left as it has been swinging right. Now, I believe that we have a few years till this happens.

The only thing that I do see happening is mathematically there will be a long period of seniority stagnation when the legacy airlines replace that 50-60-70ish % of their workforce. From a QOL perspective it would be nice to see what your career would look like before making a jump. Along with the financial projections. A earnings spreadsheet, break even, staying vs. moving somewhere else. Retirement projections. And a seniority spreadsheet... or to put it in simple terms, are you stuck in golden handcuffs?

 

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

6 yrs in? I think you’d be crazy to leave. It’s unfortunate what’s happening at FDX, but it sounds like making a permanent move based on what should be (hopefully) short term blips in a career.

Age? Wife? Kids? 35 below, maybe. 40+ ? I’d hate to start over at the bottom of a 16,000 pilot list.

Just my 2 cents. In Iraqi Dinars.

 

[Boris Badenov]

I emphatically agree with @DE727UPS on this one (and most of the other ones). This whole game revolves around sitting on the lily-pad long enough for your frogs to jump the other frogs. I think it's almost certainly true that you all are in for Hard Times in the short-term, but with six years of seniority, unless you think the ship is legit going down (and I think that would be the wrong call), you're better off sticking it out. IMHO, YMMV, etc. etc. Everything in this business is cyclical, and I suspect that the passenger carriers will have their day in whatever the opposite of the sun is, soon enough.

 

[///AMG]

We have a couple FDX guys about your seniority in my reserve squadron. Same questions have been asked. More specifically about a jump to widget (where 90%+ of our guys are), and the math just doesn't work out. In that case, jumping to the bottom of a 15000 pilot seniority list, where half have been hired in the last 10 years, and many of them are younger than any of us.......maybe the hard math makes up in the short term, but QOL won't. Im not familiar with the calculus at UAL, but I agree, and take my opinion for what it is worth (about 50 seconds in this industry), I'd think twice about throwing it all away and starting again. Sorry you guys are going through this.

 

[GypsyPilot]

Working at a shop where the (snapshot of today) attrition is amazingly high in the bottom quartile/20% range there is a lot of career calculus that you have to do.

The best piece of advice is don't take advice from random dudes on the internet, me included.

Another thought that I can throw out there is that you should talk to a financial planner and an aviation 'career counselor.' Which is exactly the advice that I give to anyone I fly with, to quote The Clash, "Should I stay or should I go now." Because even though it's not just about the money, it's also about the money.

That being said, we are really in unprecedented times and it will not last. Someday the music will stop. The L/D of Retirements and Growth will bottom out. Airlines will stagnate again and I almost want to say that the pendulum will swing as far to the left as it has been swinging right. Now, I believe that we have a few years till this happens.

The only thing that I do see happening is mathematically there will be a long period of seniority stagnation when the legacy airlines replace that 50-60-70ish % of their workforce. From a QOL perspective it would be nice to see what your career would look like before making a jump. Along with the financial projections. A earnings spreadsheet, break even, staying vs. moving somewhere else. Retirement projections. And a seniority spreadsheet... or to put it in simple terms, are you stuck in golden handcuffs?

Yes, I think I’m stuck in golden handcuffs. After getting jerked around in this crap hole profession for years and years, my 401k going into FedEx wasn’t great. I’ve been maxing everything out since day 1, and it’s definitely better but I do pretty much need the pension although a better DC would also make it so I’d have an ok retirement 20 years from now.

Doing the math for United, it’d take three years of me being at 4.A.2.b/c reduced pay before I’d come out ahead at United (assuming NB pay at min guarantee). It’s hard to believe we’d be that stagnant for so long, but who knows at this point.

I am EXTREMELY upset that I turned down United to come here five years ago. I could not possibly have made a worse decision, and my anger at FedEx management grows every day for the double talk we’ve received during and after COVID. I just want to rage quit at this point, even though it’s not logical. I don’t know that I will ever be happy here again and I hate to spend the next 20 years being miserable.

Everyday I wait makes it harder to leave, which is also very stressful. Perhaps once I downgrade, I can just go to “don’t give a crap” mode and checkout. I’ve never been like that, but may have to if I’m going to keep my sanity and stay here purely for the paycheck.

 

[phill1174]

Yes, I think I’m stuck in golden handcuffs. After getting jerked around in this crap hole profession for years and years, my 401k going into FedEx wasn’t great. I’ve been maxing everything out since day 1, and it’s definitely better but I do pretty much need the pension although a better DC would also make it so I’d have an ok retirement 20 years from now.

Doing the math for United, it’d take three years of me being at 4.A.2.b/c reduced pay before I’d come out ahead at United (assuming NB pay at min guarantee). It’s hard to believe we’d be that stagnant for so long, but who knows at this point.

I am EXTREMELY upset that I turned down United to come here five years ago. I could not possibly have made a worse decision, and my anger at FedEx management grows every day for the double talk we’ve received during and after COVID. I just want to rage quit at this point, even though it’s not logical. I don’t know that I will ever be happy here again and I hate to spend the next 20 years being miserable.

Everyday I wait makes it harder to leave, which is also very stressful. Perhaps once I downgrade, I can just go to “don’t give a crap” mode and checkout. I’ve never been like that, but may have to if I’m going to keep my sanity and stay here purely for the paycheck.

This is something to think about. Going to fly and having it feel like “work” is miserable. I can always tell the difference between the folks who truly enjoy where they work and the ones who are here because the checks cash, seniority, A plan, etc.

 

[JEP]

I guess this previous post of mine hasnt aged well....

i follow several purple pilots on other social media sites. for the last # of classes there were numerous pilots from every single major. never know the seniority but was always a surprise giving up that seniority. one never knows what happens in the what-if game and when you do find out it can be too late..

saw a post today about hiring being paused through 2024.

For those that went pax to purple recently I think they almost have to be stuck. I mean they couldn't or woudln't go back to the carrier they left....? I know of a couple with less time than you sitting right seat that have indeed made the jump to a pax carrier. I am sure they are now looing back thinking what the hell..... What does that mean..... I think all anyone can go on is what they know NOW. Honestly I don't think anyone will know if the decision they make was right or wrong not until their career is over and they can look back.... Best of luck in whatever decision you make.

 

[BEEF SUPREME]

I'd be a lot less concerned about what penciled out in 2-3 years by jumping from what has traditionally been a very well managed cargo carrier to the bottom of a seniority list at a carrier that has had a history of devastating furloughs.

I was blasted here for saying that Covid would affect the cargo side of the industry and while it didn't play out the way I thought it would those times are here. I'm guessing that before peak retirements hit things will go south on the passenger side of the industry.

Personally, I'd stay put and ride it out, but I didn't even stay at a Holiday Inn last night. I slept in my own bed.

 

[Kingairer]

I wouldn’t leave if you were relatively happy flying cargo before. If you weren’t a cargo guy and FedEx was a concession for you, maybe. I’m sure it feels like the other lane of traffic is very appealing right now but it’ll balance out soon. Also, to many younger pilots getting hired now to ever realize the low digit retirement number.

 

[derg]

I guess this previous post of mine hasnt aged well....


For those that went pax to purple recently I think they almost have to be stuck. I mean they couldn't or woudln't go back to the carrier they left....? I know of a couple with less time than you sitting right seat that have indeed made the jump to a pax carrier. I am sure they are now looing back thinking what the hell..... What does that mean..... I think all anyone can go on is what they know NOW. Honestly I don't think anyone will know if the decision they make was right or wrong not until their career is over and they can look back.... Best of luck in whatever decision you make.

We’ve had a number of people interview at my airline that made the jump to other carriers.

It really depends on how you left. If you gave notice, you’re welcome to reinterview. If you just up, threw a ‘shaka’ and screamed “Audi FIVE!” at random like some people did, you are persona non grata.

 

[BEEF SUPREME]

We’ve had a number of people interview at my airline that made the jump to other carriers.

It really depends on how you left. If you gave notice, you’re welcome to reinterview. If you just up, threw a ‘shaka’ and screamed “Audi FIVE!” at random like some people did, you are persona non grata.

Peace out bitches!

 

[JEP]

We’ve had a number of people interview at my airline that made the jump to other carriers.

It really depends on how you left. If you gave notice, you’re welcome to reinterview. If you just up, threw a ‘shaka’ and screamed “Audi FIVE!” at random like some people did, you are persona non grata.

So your airline -> purple ->back you your airline would be ok....? Guessing the seniority would not pick up where it left off ?

 

[Apophis]

Yes, I think I’m stuck in golden handcuffs. After getting jerked around in this crap hole profession for years and years, my 401k going into FedEx wasn’t great. I’ve been maxing everything out since day 1, and it’s definitely better but I do pretty much need the pension although a better DC would also make it so I’d have an ok retirement 20 years from now.

Doing the math for United, it’d take three years of me being at 4.A.2.b/c reduced pay before I’d come out ahead at United (assuming NB pay at min guarantee). It’s hard to believe we’d be that stagnant for so long, but who knows at this point.

I am EXTREMELY upset that I turned down United to come here five years ago. I could not possibly have made a worse decision, and my anger at FedEx management grows every day for the double talk we’ve received during and after COVID. I just want to rage quit at this point, even though it’s not logical. I don’t know that I will ever be happy here again and I hate to spend the next 20 years being miserable.

Everyday I wait makes it harder to leave, which is also very stressful. Perhaps once I downgrade, I can just go to “don’t give a crap” mode and checkout. I’ve never been like that, but may have to if I’m going to keep my sanity and stay here purely for the paycheck.

Man, this sucks to read on so many levels and it makes me angry too. I wanted to fly the MD-11 before it’s gone forever. I wanted to stay flying purple cargo until the day I retire. But It seems like FedEx management is just a larger version of our own incompetent management team. I feel like anybody with half a brain could have forecast the COVID freight volumes weren’t going to last forever. DE Shaw acquiring a large amount of FedEx stock and installing their shills on the board to asset strip the company for short term profits really made me rethink my plans.

I have a mid September class date at United and it seems more and more like the right decision with each passing day.

 

[BEEF SUPREME]

I wouldn’t leave if you were relatively happy flying cargo before. If you weren’t a cargo guy and FedEx was a concession for you, maybe. I’m sure it feels like the other lane of traffic is very appealing right now but it’ll balance out soon. Also, to many younger pilots getting hired now to ever realize the low digit retirement number.

 

[derg]

So your airline -> purple ->back you your airline would be ok....? Guessing the seniority would not pick up where it left off ?

We’ve taken quite a few back, but you lose your seniority as it’s not portable or ‘freezeable’.

 

[SteveC]

...and I hate to spend the next 20 years being miserable.
...

I don't have input on your overall question, but whatever you do, do not do this. ^^^

"What I tell you three times is true:"

No amount of money can make up for the damage that this will do to you mentally, emotionally, and physically.
No amount of money can make up for the damage that this will do to you mentally, emotionally, and physically.
No amount of money can make up for the damage that this will do to you mentally, emotionally, and physically.