The math for quitting FedEx to go to United

[Apophis]

I'd be a lot less concerned about what penciled out in 2-3 years by jumping from what has traditionally been a very well managed cargo carrier to the bottom of a seniority list at a carrier that has had a history of devastating furloughs.

I was blasted here for saying that Covid would affect the cargo side of the industry and while it didn't play out the way I thought it would those times are here. I'm guessing that before peak retirements hit things will go south on the passenger side of the industry.

Personally, I'd stay put and ride it out, but I didn't even stay at a Holiday Inn last night. I slept in my own bed.

It really isn’t some huge downturn as much as it is a “regression to the mean.” FedEx massively over-hired during and after COVID. I guess they figured having peak-level volumes every month was going to last forever and (over)-hired to keep up. As the world started opening up again, freight volumes dropped accordingly.

Another huge key to this is the fact that vulture-capitalist firm DE Shaw purchased an enormous amount of FedEx stock…enough to get 2 seats on the board. The new FedEx CEO doesn’t give two craps about the company or what Fred Smith built. His sole job is asset strip, make the operation as lean as possible to boost short-term shareholder profit. Once DE Shaw is happy enough, they’ll probably sell and leave a future management team to clean up what’s left.

It’s sad.

 

[Skåning]

I am EXTREMELY upset that I turned down United to come here five years ago. I could not possibly have made a worse decision,

Do not beat yourself up over this. You made the decision at the time with the context and information at hand. Things DID look way different back then.

Do you (or would you) commute?

If you’re 45 you should really consider staying put. UA has hired tons of dudes younger than that. Your seniority would not be stellar.

 

[Roger Roger]

It really isn’t some huge downturn as much as it is a “regression to the mean.” FedEx massively over-hired during and after COVID. I guess they figured having peak-level volumes every month was going to last forever and (over)-hired to keep up. As the world started opening up again, freight volumes dropped accordingly.

Another huge key to this is the fact that vulture-capitalist firm DE Shaw purchased an enormous amount of FedEx stock…enough to get 2 seats on the board. The new FedEx CEO doesn’t give two craps about the company or what Fred Smith built. His sole job is asset strip, make the operation as lean as possible to boost short-term shareholder profit. Once DE Shaw is happy enough, they’ll probably sell and leave a future management team to clean up what’s left.

It’s sad.

ThE bEsT eCoNoMiC sYsTeM EvAr

 

[GypsyPilot]

Do not beat yourself up over this. You made the decision at the time with the context and information at hand. Things DID look way different back then.

Do you (or would you) commute?

If you’re 45 you should really consider staying put. UA has hired tons of dudes younger than that. Your seniority would not be stellar.

You’re right, it’s what I need to hear. Thanks for the reality check.

You guys are all awesome, I appreciate it.

 

[BEEF SUPREME]

You’re right, it’s what I need to hear. Thanks for the reality check.

You guys are all awesome, I appreciate it.

I think that most of us would have absolutely jumped at the opportunity to go to FedEx in 2018-2019. Don't beat yourself up on that decision. I remember people cautioning me that aviation was like the tide, how it went in cycles since I was a little kid. I think that things will change sooner than later and you'll be just fine at FedEx. Right now PAX volume is the equivalent of cargo volume in 2020-2021. Things are going to change and when they do I wouldn't want to be at the bottom of the list anywhere.

Do I regret not trying harder to get to United in 2018? Yes. Can I live with being where I am now? Yes. I don't beat myself up about it. I have a 1/3 of the pilot group below me in seniority now and I certainly have the same golden handcuffs as you. Things might turn out better for you than you're thinking and I completely understand how demoralizing facing a downgrade is. I was facing the same just a few months ago. I would not make an emotional based employment decision right now.

Of course I could be wrong. Who knows what will happen in the future.

 

[CFI A&P]

Do not beat yourself up over this. You made the decision at the time with the context and information at hand. Things DID look way different back then.

Do you (or would you) commute?

If you’re 45 you should really consider staying put. UA has hired tons of dudes younger than that. Your seniority would not be stellar.

I think this is a great post. That was the information available at the time, and if you used today's information for United, what's to say it doesn't change in 5 years and you'll be kicking yourself for not staying at FedEx. Someone once told me this, and I'm totally butchering it - but if you spend your career chasing the carrot, in the end you end up tired and never got the carrot.

 

[Soul Brotha']

You made the right decision to go to FedEx. It stinks now(every major in history has gone through this phase) but for your company there is a great chance that it will get better.

 

[gliderboy]

Maybe spend more time thinking about how much you have to be thankful for.

 

[Autothrust Blue]

Man, this sucks to read on so many levels and it makes me angry too. I wanted to fly the MD-11 before it’s gone forever. I wanted to stay flying purple cargo until the day I retire. But It seems like FedEx management is just a larger version of our own incompetent management team. I feel like anybody with half a brain could have forecast the COVID freight volumes weren’t going to last forever. DE Shaw acquiring a large amount of FedEx stock and installing their shills on the board to asset strip the company for short term profits really made me rethink my plans.

I have a mid September class date at United and it seems more and more like the right decision with each passing day.

There's an "always has/have been" meme in here somewhere, sadly.

Every great job is one change in management away from becoming a not-great job, and you're married to your number whether you like it or not.

 

[Autothrust Blue]

Maybe spend more time thinking about how much you have to be thankful for.

-1 unhelpful.

 

[Autothrust Blue]

ThE bEsT eCoNoMiC sYsTeM EvAr

 

[SrFnFly227]

It's worth noting that you got to ride out Covid at a carrier that never even had a hint of trouble. Had you taken the United class, you would have spent a year wondering whether you were going to be furloughed or whether the government was going to guarantee another couple paychecks. That is a huge amount of stress and disappointment that you avoided. You would have absolutely been kicking yourself for not taking the Fedex offer (or staying at Fedex depending on the timeline) had you been toward the bottom of the list at United in 2020. Now the pendulum has swung. It is likely to swing back and forth for the rest of your career.

You made the best decision you could make based on the information you had at the time. It's probably the same decision that a lot of people on this board would have made back then. I won't say it will be easy, but try to find peace in that.

 

[MikeD]

We’ve had a number of people interview at my airline that made the jump to other carriers.

It really depends on how you left. If you gave notice, you’re welcome to reinterview. If you just up, threw a ‘shaka’ and screamed “Audi FIVE!” at random like some people did, you are persona non grata.

Uh huh……you’re welcome to reinterview. Translation: “He left the tribe once already. Only because we actually need pilots, send his ass 717 FO NYC for the rest of his life.”

 

[Pilot Fighter]

FedEx massively over-hired during and after COVID.

What was the alternative, turn away business?

 

[CFIT99]

Yes, I think I’m stuck in golden handcuffs. After getting jerked around in this crap hole profession for years and years, my 401k going into FedEx wasn’t great. I’ve been maxing everything out since day 1, and it’s definitely better but I do pretty much need the pension although a better DC would also make it so I’d have an ok retirement 20 years from now.

Doing the math for United, it’d take three years of me being at 4.A.2.b/c reduced pay before I’d come out ahead at United (assuming NB pay at min guarantee). It’s hard to believe we’d be that stagnant for so long, but who knows at this point.

I am EXTREMELY upset that I turned down United to come here five years ago. I could not possibly have made a worse decision, and my anger at FedEx management grows every day for the double talk we’ve received during and after COVID. I just want to rage quit at this point, even though it’s not logical. I don’t know that I will ever be happy here again and I hate to spend the next 20 years being miserable.

Everyday I wait makes it harder to leave, which is also very stressful. Perhaps once I downgrade, I can just go to “don’t give a crap” mode and checkout. I’ve never been like that, but may have to if I’m going to keep my sanity and stay here purely for the paycheck.

In my class at AA we had a mix of UA, SW and DL guys, moving over mainly for the bases as commuting is the worst thing since ever. (granted none were more than 2 years in at any of them.)

You mention only money in your posts...what about vacation, schedule, etc....?

money is one thing but QOL is king...

 

[MikeD]

The new FedEx CEO doesn’t give two craps about the company or what Fred Smith built. His sole job is asset strip, make the operation as lean as possible to boost short-term shareholder profit. Once DE Shaw is happy enough, they’ll probably sell and leave a future management team to clean up what’s left.

It’s sad.

Almost sounds like a Frank Lorenzo Jr.

You’re right, it’s what I need to hear. Thanks for the reality check.

You guys are all awesome, I appreciate it.

No….

Let the hate flow through you! Anger and pain are your friend…….they let you know that you aren’t dead yet!

Someone once told me this, and I'm totally butchering it - but if you spend your career chasing the carrot, in the end you end up tired and never got the carrot.

Are you writing the forward to the career memoirs of JCs ZapBrannigan, with this?

 

[A300Capt]

Tough call brother…

In the first few years at UPS I was looking for a way out to what I thought would be greener pastures. I had already had enough of life at Brown and knew I couldn’t do this for 30+ years. I actually would’ve gone back to flying Metroliners if my previous employer would’ve taken me back….it was really that bad. I thought I had made the worse decision of my young life coming to UPS. Schedules sucked, night flying and sitting the sort at 3am would take years off my life and I knew it. Captains making $65K/year and we were told not to expect to EVER be paid like the pax carrier pilots who were easily already making 3-4 times that amount.

I was about as miserable as I could get and watching folks leave left and right to what were considered better places (Braniff 2, TWA, USAir and PanAm) didn’t help. Of course, we all know what happened to those “greener pastures”! I had actually secured interviews at a couple of those now defunct carriers. Fast forward to my retirement and I thank God for unanswered prayers!!

Listen, I hear you and I understand where you’re coming from. The top tier pax airlines are hiring at incredible numbers and riding a high right now and FedEx is going through a transformation which may or may not go as you expected. It’s stressful and infuriating all at the same time especially if you have a family to think about. Nobody really knows what the outcome will be but my money is on FedEx. However, if you think leaving a top tier legacy cargo carrier like FedEx because things look rosier somewhere else, you’re more than likely setting yourself up for just more disappointment down the road. The ebb and flow, ups and downs, at the pax carriers would be a lot more stressful to me than worrying about UPS or FedEx.

I remember years ago I started seeing Delta pilots in UPS new hire classes. Dogs and cats living together, I thought. How times had changed as things looked bleak at Southern jets. I had a pretty senior 25 year Delta Capt sitting f/o for me on the Airbus.…weird! Things were tough there and he took the early out but still wanted to fly. Great dude who probably flew with us another 8-10 years before retiring. Not sure he made the right decision but I do know almost all the other younger Delta dudes went back to Delta when things got better and now look how great things are. Maybe they should’ve just stayed and ride it out.

There will be another downturn in the economy, terrorist attack, hijack, war or air crash that will send the pax carriers into panic and furlough mode.…guaranteed! It happens every decade or so right on schedule. FedEx and UPS tend to flourish in those times. People are fickle and skittish about air travel but love their home delivery products. Cargo has always been a more lucrative and secure flying job than the fickle pax side of things. FedEx is an iconic brand and company. They are financially stable and as far as I can tell will be long into the future. Don’t let threats of furloughs and parking airplanes (fear talk) during contract negotiations persuade you into making a decision you may quickly regret. A year from now the outlook may look completely different….COMPLETELY! This is just a speed bump in a flying career. You’re with a great company. May not seem that way at the moment but it will get better. My advice would be to stay put….

Keep in mind my advice is free….and that’s about what it’s worth at the end of the day.

Good luck in what ever you decide!

 

[Apophis]

What was the alternative, turn away business?

Pay now or pay later.

 

[CFIT99]

Let the hate flow through you! Anger and pain are your friend…….they let you know that you aren’t dead yet!

agreed...I wouldn't be where I am now if I didn't rage apply at 3 am...due to massive frustration with my last shop

 

[SteveC]

In my class at AA we had a mix of UA, SW and DL guys, moving over mainly for the bases as commuting is the worst thing since ever. (granted none were more than 2 years in at any of them.)

You mention only money in your posts...what about vacation, schedule, etc....?

money is one thing but QOL is king...

Yeah that.

I turned down opportunities that would have paid more at least a half dozen times in my flying career, and don't regret a single one of those decisions. My schedule and home life were more important then, and I can look back now that I'm retired and, what do you know, we still managed to save more than enough money to support the lifestyle that we now enjoy. Nice home - paid for, cars we paid cash for (both bought new), cottage, yearly international travel, discretionary income for our hobbies...win/win!

(And to think, I did that while exceeding 150K only one time in my whole career...)