WSJ: Airline-Pilot Shortage Arrives Ahead of Schedule

[wheelsup]

Airways had 5k applications on file. They randomly select people and then further screen by looking thru the selected apps and calling those I guess they are interested in. Apparently they only hire about 1/3 after that. It seems on the AA side of the house, they select the people they want to interview "less randomly" but hire a good portion of those they interview.

So I guess what that tells me is while Brand "A", "B", & "C" airline may have 10,000 applications on file, just random guessing but only 3000-4000 would meet the cut so to speak, ie discounting those that have multiple 121 checkride failures, FAA violations, incidents/accidents, DUI/traffic violations, etc. You've apparently got a lot of guys coming over from other companies like Spirit, Allegiant, Virgin America & jetBlue as well. That will open up slots at the majors for people wanting to move on from the commuters.

A shortage at the major level? No not really, but don't let the numbers totally scare you, the hiring has just begun. Best thing you can do at the commuter level is become a line check airman, those guys at my commuter are getting snapped up left and right, some with multiple offers from the legacies.

 

[H46Bubba]

I first realized it when I saw the Comair Academy ad in a flight magazine back in 1998 or 99.

If I had only followed my gut and started there then versus reenlisting and waiting 4 more years to go there, I could have been a furloughed Comair Captain now working at SkyWest, GoJet, or Expressjet as an FO!

 

[mshunter]

Notice that you said the price would go up. This is true, the difference is that airlines have different ways of dealing with a lack of meat in the seats, and our wages are not going up.

Edit:Thinking about it further a virus is something uncontrollable, something unforseen, an actual problem. This shortage could be solved, literally overnight, if it paid decently.

Well, at the regional level, they ain't doin a very good job of that. They CANCELED vacations on one side of the house where I'm at in Feb. after offering a %200 buy back, are asking training department guys to go fly the line in March(not a busy time), and are offering my side of the house another %200 vacation buy back in March. So no, there is no shortage. Just not enough people to fly, IN A SLOW TIME OF THE YEAR.

Pilot shortage, short on pilots. Ta-may-toe, Toe-mah-toe.

If they plan on offering a decent wage to start, NOW is the time. There are a few regionals going through negotiations right now. It's time to figure out how to raise the first year wage at the non "Holly Owned"(<---see what I did there) regionals, and offer a good pay-benefits package to guys willing to fly at the "other regionals." If they(wholly owned) want to vote in crappy contracts because of a flow through, let 'em. But also let 'em have their crap sandwich to go along with it! My hope with that is their pool of pilots will eventually dry up(like it is now), because they realize they can't live on sub standard pay. When you actually look at the "hiring bonus" some are offering, and then you realize that they aren't paying for your hotel during training, you realize that it's not a bonus at all, it's for your hotel stay. Yet you signed your life away to them for 1-2 years for that "bonus."

 

[JustinS]

If they plan on offering a decent wage to start, NOW is the time. There are a few regionals going through negotiations right now. It's time to figure out how to raise the first year wage at the non "Holly Owned"(<---see what I did there) regionals, and offer a good pay-benefits package to guys willing to fly at the "other regionals." If they(wholly owned) want to vote in crappy contracts because of a flow through, let 'em. But also let 'em have their crap sandwich to go along with it! My hope with that is their pool of pilots will eventually dry up(like it is now), because they realize they can't live on sub standard pay. When you actually look at the "hiring bonus" some are offering, and then you realize that they aren't paying for your hotel during training, you realize that it's not a bonus at all, it's for your hotel stay. Yet you signed your life away to them for 1-2 years for that "bonus."

Agreed on some points. If all that cute little carrot is is flow through and big shiny jets, then they have their priorities all wrong... I saw in another forum someone claim that the pay, long-term, is better with the supposed high rate flow through agreement. Due to the fact that flow through means you should end up at the major in no time making up for all that lost income. I don't think this is really any good reason to justify low pay at the regional level. That's basically like saying... "Well, you're not really going to make a home with our regional airline, but the poor pay will be made up for WHEN (read: IF) you go to a major airline."

Now as far as the signing bonus, I'm not sure how it is at all companies. However, at one company I know their $5,000 bonus is paid out over the course of the 2 year contract. This means anyone with that bonus has $208 tacked onto their paycheck every month for 2 years, and then it will go away after that.

Food for thought. Why should a company ask for a 5% paycut from their pilot group when they could probably increase their fees or ticket prices by a much smaller percentage and end up making that extra money they would have made by cutting a workforce's paycheck? It seems like if business is good with high demand, employees work hard, and money is flowing in you give them a raise, and/or increase the price of services that have already been held artificially low for too long.

 

[Firebird2XC]

Agreed on some points. If all that cute little carrot is is flow through and big shiny jets, then they have their priorities all wrong... I saw in another forum someone claim that the pay, long-term, is better with the supposed high rate flow through agreement. Due to the fact that flow through means you should end up at the major in no time making up for all that lost income. I don't think this is really any good reason to justify low pay at the regional level. That's basically like saying... "Well, you're not really going to make a home with our regional airline, but the poor pay will be made up for WHEN (read: IF) you go to a major airline."

Now as far as the signing bonus, I'm not sure how it is at all companies. However, at one company I know their $5,000 bonus is paid out over the course of the 2 year contract. This means anyone with that bonus has $208 tacked onto their paycheck every month for 2 years, and then it will go away after that.

Flow-through in 'no time'? Like the guys at Eagle that signed on for a flowthrough back in 1999 that are just now seeing flow? Even if they flow 30-50 guys from Eagle to AA indefinitely, I'm looking at 3 or 4 years. And I've been here for six.

Anybody betting on flow-through 'any time now' is deluding themselves.

 

[JustinS]

Flow-through in 'no time'? Like the guys at Eagle that signed on for a flowthrough back in 1999 that are just now seeing flow? Even if they flow 30-50 guys from Eagle to AA indefinitely, I'm looking at 3 or 4 years. And I've been here for six.

Anybody betting on flow-through 'any time now' is deluding themselves.

I totally agree with you. Sorry if my post came off like I think that's a good reason to give a paycut. I was just saying why someone else seems to think that is a good enough reason to take a paycut... I disagree with them though.

 

[Firebird2XC]

I totally agree with you! Sorry if my post came off like I think that's a good reason to give a paycut. I was just saying why someone else seems to think that is a good enough reason to take a paycut... I disagree with them though.

Nah, it's cool, I know where you're at. I'm just piling on. There's nothing in the AA/AE flowthrough mess worth taking a pay cut. I'm not subsidizing new hire bonuses by capping my pay as a captain. No way in hell.

 

[Polar742]

People on that other site are posting with devout desperation to work here. We have a good gig, but with this environment, aim higher. If you end up here it's fine...

 

[SeanD]

If I had only followed my gut and started there then versus reenlisting and waiting 4 more years to go there, I could have been a furloughed Comair Captain now working at SkyWest, GoJet, or Expressjet as an FO!

I actually ordered their stuff. I got the booklet and brochures a couple days later. (which were very well done and organized I must say). In fact, I think I still have them laying around somewhere. There was a big section in there about a current pilot shortage, and that was back in 2001. Anyway, I nearly signed up and was considering taking on the debt to go there then 9/11 happened and that was that for awhile. I ended up training out of a trailer at HND.

 

[mshunter]

Food for thought. Why should a company ask for a 5% paycut from their pilot group when they could probably increase their fees or ticket prices by a much smaller percentage and end up making that extra money they would have made by cutting a workforce's paycheck? It seems like if business is good with high demand, employees work hard, and money is flowing in you give them a raise, and/or increase the price of services that have already been held artificially low for too long.

This won't happen for two reasons.

#1: That's not how it works at the regional level. We aren't paid off of how much a ticket costs. The pay structure is different, and it's horrible. If it went to that, think "At risk flying." And I think I'd be okay with that.

#2: Look at the profits ALL the majors made last year. They don't need to raise their ticket prices to pay us more. When your profits start with a "B" as in "B"illions, or, you're in the middle of a (sham) bankruptcy, and manage to make half of a "B"... They just refuse to pay us what it takes.

Screw this crap. The stress is getting to me. Im'a go shoot some people on BF4.

 

[derg]

Really, by your definition, there is no such thing as a shortage. If there was a virus that killed off half the beef supply in the world, the price would go up. By your definition, there would be no beef shortage, just a lack of people willing to buy it at those prices.

Let's be clear about what I said.

There are less people embarking on a career in aviation. Yes.

However, there are those that discontinued their pursuit of aviation because of economic and lifestyle reasons.

Your analogy isn't relevant because those retiring military pilots who went into aerospace consulting, trained commercially-rated pilots that would rather work in IT and people that would pursue professional aviation if the cash and prizes were there, are still here. and many are actively evaluating whether the water will ever be warm enough to dive back in.

Unless, of course, I'm out to lunch and there was some virus that attacked and rendered grounded for those that got out of the business.

 

[JustinS]

This won't happen for two reasons.

#1: That's not how it works at the regional level. We aren't paid off of how much a ticket costs. The pay structure is different, and it's horrible. If it went to that, think "At risk flying." And I think I'd be okay with that.

#2: Look at the profits ALL the majors made last year. They don't need to raise their ticket prices to pay us more. When your profits start with a "B" as in "B"illions, or, you're in the middle of a (sham) bankruptcy, and manage to make half of a "B"... They just refuse to pay us what it takes.

So basically the regionals are the mainlines' cash cow.

 

[ScorpionStinger]

The pilots united will never be defeated

So no, there is no shortage. Just not enough people to fly, IN A SLOW TIME OF THE YEAR. Pilot shortage, short on pilots. Ta-may-toe, Toe-mah-toe.

I hear ya, but I'll take Capt. Lee Moak's statement 3 days ago USA TODAY. He does not think it is a "Ta-may-toe, Toe-mah-toe" issue. He clearly says their is no shortage of pilots. .....

P.s. @Derg pointed it out as well... "discontinued their pursuit of aviation because of economic and lifestyle reasons.

Now read what Capt. Lee Moak just said.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/flights/2014/02/05/faa-pilot-training-regional-airlines-united-cleveland-great-lakes/5227839/

"The union president, Capt. Lee Moak, said thousands of pilots who are furloughed or working overseas would prefer to work for a U.S. airline. About 1,154 ALPA members are furloughed from their airlines and another 2,000 pilots are looking for work after four small domestic airlines closed, he said.

The average pay for co-pilots at 14 U.S. regional airlines is $21,285 and $61,000 at Delta and United, Moak said. But Emirates Airlines is paying $82,000 plus a housing allowance, and Cathay Pacific is paying $72,000 plus a housing allowance, he said.

"There may be a shortage of qualified pilots who are willing to fly for U.S. airlines because of the industry's recent history of instability, poor pay and benefits," Moak said."

 

[mshunter]

The pilots united will never be defeated


I hear ya, but I'll take Capt. Lee Moak's statement 3 days ago USA TODAY. He does not think it is a "Ta-may-toe, Toe-mah-toe" issue. He clearly says their is no shortage of pilots. .....

P.s. @Derg pointed it out as well... "discontinued their pursuit of aviation because of economic and lifestyle reasons.

Now read what Capt. Lee Moak just said.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/flights/2014/02/05/faa-pilot-training-regional-airlines-united-cleveland-great-lakes/5227839/

"The union president, Capt. Lee Moak, said thousands of pilots who are furloughed or working overseas would prefer to work for a U.S. airline. About 1,154 ALPA members are furloughed from their airlines and another 2,000 pilots are looking for work after four small domestic airlines closed, he said.

The average pay for co-pilots at 14 U.S. regional airlines is $21,285 and $61,000 at Delta and United, Moak said. But Emirates Airlines is paying $82,000 plus a housing allowance, and Cathay Pacific is paying $72,000 plus a housing allowance, he said.

"There may be a shortage of qualified pilots who are willing to fly for U.S. airlines because of the industry's recent history of instability, poor pay and benefits," Moak said."

I get those emails too. Not going to say what I think about him here.

 

[CoffeeIcePapers]

Your analogy isn't relevant because those retiring military pilots who went into aerospace consulting, trained commercially-rated pilots that would rather work in IT and people that would pursue professional aviation if the cash and prizes were there, are still here. and many are actively evaluating whether the water will ever be warm enough to dive back in.

There is really no way to quantify how many of those guys are out there, and I would suspect the number isn't in the 1000's, but I am completely talking out of my ass. There are plenty of ex-military guys going to regionals right now to get some 121. @bunk22 is an example of one, I think. Guys like him don't really care about the pay because they won't be at a regional more than a year. Even the military isn't producing as many pilots as they have in the past.

http://www.stripes.com/news/air-force-faced-with-new-reality-fewer-pilots-1.155793

 

[bunk22]

There is really no way to quantify how many of those guys are out there, and I would suspect the number isn't in the 1000's, but I am completely talking out of my ass. There are plenty of ex-military guys going to regionals right now to get some 121. @bunk22 is an example of one, I think. Guys like him don't really care about the pay because they won't be at a regional more than a year. Even the military isn't producing as many pilots as they have in the past.

http://www.stripes.com/news/air-force-faced-with-new-reality-fewer-pilots-1.155793

I lasted about two months into the Regional but left due to the horrific pay! I work for L3 flying MC-12's now, making way, way more.

 

[CoffeeIcePapers]

I lasted about two months into the Regional but left due to the horrific pay! I work for L3 flying MC-12's now, making way, way more.

Why did you go there in the first place?

 

[HRDiva]

I was shredding old tax files recently (ok don't judge me as a pack rat). My husband made more in his first year at Pennsylvania Commuter Airlines starting in April than those starting at regionals today for a full 12 months.

 

[block30]

I lasted about two months into the Regional but left due to the horrific pay! I work for L3 flying MC-12's now, making way, way more.

This is the sad part....Bunk went to a "*good*" regional.

 

[Boris Badenov]

What most people mean when they say there's a shortage is that there's a significant change in the pilot supply.

When Greyhound can't fill busses because they can't find drivers, they don't call it a "bus driver shortage". Why? Because there are plenty of people with CDLs who could drive a Greyhound, but don't, because it sucks. No bus driver shortage, no pilot shortage.