WSJ: Airline-Pilot Shortage Arrives Ahead of Schedule

[H46Bubba]

I actually ordered their stuff. I got the booklet and brochures a couple days later. (which were very well done and organized I must say). In fact, I think I still have them laying around somewhere. There was a big section in there about a current pilot shortage, and that was back in 2001. Anyway, I nearly signed up and was considering taking on the debt to go there then 9/11 happened and that was that for awhile. I ended up training out of a trailer at HND.

I could definitely see the difference pre and post Delta takeover. I enjoyed the training there, but after working there and seeing the "behind the scenes" business stuff, as well as them going after @Derg , I had to take my money and move on. Comair originally had the EMB-120 ground school there at the Academy, until they moved everything up to Cincy when they got rid of the Brasilias.

 

[derg]

Yeah that was loads of "fun".

The one good thing about that episode is that I learned that there more people on my "side" than there were on the "other" side.

And there were some firings too.

 

[bunk22]

I will say AWAC was a class act, seemingly a decent contract but the pay is what it is at the Regional level. I originally went there to gain some 121 experience but going from $123k a year to $24k a year is not easy. I make $43k a year in retirement pay so it's not as huge a cut as it would be without but friends at L3 seduced me with the pay overseas. I fly in the worst location so the money needs to be somewhat decent.

 

[Bumblebee]

I will say AWAC was a class act, seemingly a decent contract but the pay is what it is at the Regional level. I originally went there to gain some 121 experience but going from $123k a year to $24k a year is not easy. I make $43k a year in retirement pay so it's not as huge a cut as it would be without but friends at L3 seduced me with the pay overseas. I fly in the worst location so the money needs to be somewhat decent.

if you fly with tall handsome Alex from mississippi, tell him I send my love

 

[JEP]

Let's be clear about what I said.

There are less people embarking on a career in aviation. Yes.

However, there are those that discontinued their pursuit of aviation because of economic and lifestyle reasons. (+1)

Your analogy isn't relevant because those retiring military pilots who went into aerospace consulting, trained commercially-rated pilots that would rather work in IT (+2) and people that would pursue professional aviation if the cash and prizes were there, are still here. and many are actively evaluating whether the water will ever be warm enough to dive back in.

Unless, of course, I'm out to lunch and there was some virus that attacked and rendered grounded for those that got out of the business.

Out to lunch.....? Nope, spot on!!!!

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

I get those emails too. Not going to say what I think about him here.

Why not? I do, and then he has to sit next to me at dinner a week later.

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

I'd just like to point out that @Derg is towing the Moak party line on this one. Doug, I think I'm going to start calling you Kemo.

Moak and so many people here want to redefine the term "shortage" to suit their bargaining goals. But words mean things. When you have 30 slots to fill, you only get 15 people to show up to the interview, and only 5 of them show up to class, that's a shortage. You don't need to pretend that it's not a shortage just to have a good argument at the bargaining table.

Regarding the 10,000 applications on file at AMR, AirTran had the same 10,000 applications on file when I got hired. It was the same 10,000 applications on file at JetBlue, Delta, UAL, CAL, Hawaiian, and the list goes on. Retirement numbers don't lie. And 10,000 applicants ain't gonna cut it.

It's great for bargaining, no doubt. It gives you leverage. But trying to change the definition of words just makes you look foolish.

P.S. Moak's line is a new one. The previous administration did say that there is a coming pilot shortage.

 

[Boris Badenov]

Moak and so many people here want to redefine the term "shortage" to suit their bargaining goals. But words mean things.

Uh, quite so. Webster's says:

a state in which there is not enough of something that is needed

There were roughly 142,000 ATPs in the US in 2000, according to the FAA. According to the BLS, there are about 100,000 jobs for ALL commercial/ATP pilots (so including jobs which don't even require an ATP). A "shortage" is when (number of available jobs > number of available pilots). What we have is about a 42,000 pilot SURPLUS, er unless I forgot to carry a number or something. Like you said, words mean stuff.

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

A pilot with a certificate but who isn't interested in a job is not "available." Sorry, but your own description doesn't even work. Plus, your numbers also include retired pilots, pilots who have medicaled out, etc. BLS numbers are meaningless for this exercise. The only number that matters is the number of pilots actually looking for a job.

 

[Boris Badenov]

Which is a number you know how, exactly?

You don't like the BLS numbers, what numbers do you like? I mean, we're all agreed that the fact that people are unwilling to show up to be paid like a parking attendant does not signify a shortage of "available pilots", aren't we?

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

Which is a number you know how, exactly?

Because the airlines talk openly about the number of applicants that they have. It isn't a state secret.

You don't like the BLS numbers, what numbers do you like?

The only number that matters: the number of people actually showing up for class.

I mean, we're all agreed that the fact that people are unwilling to show up to be paid like a parking attendant does not signify a shortage of "available pilots", aren't we?

No, we aren't. The going wage is the going wage. We can work through collective bargaining to increase the going wage, but until that tree bears fruit, the only wage that matters is the one on the books. And right now, with the going wage what it is, we are seeing the early stage of the shortage.

 

[Boris Badenov]

Heh so if I bought a 135 certificate tomorrow, hung out my shingle, and said "come pay to fly my airplanes...beatings thrown in for free", the fact that no one showed up for class would be further evidence of the GRATE PYLOT SHORTAGE@(#*@(*#@??????

Whatever, man.

 

[Beep]

"come pay to fly my airplanes...beatings thrown in for free".

Sweet! Don't forget to mention that only applicants that are typed and current will be considered.

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

Heh so if I bought a 135 certificate tomorrow, hung out my shingle, and said "come pay to fly my airplanes...beatings thrown in for free", the fact that no one showed up for class would be further evidence of the GRATE PYLOT SHORTAGE@(#*@(*#@??????

Whatever, man.

You and Seggy are manufacturing those Straw Men at breakneck pace today!

Read what I said, Boris. I said "the going wage." Charging someone to work for you and throwing in free beatings is not "the going wage." The going wage to be an airline pilot your first year is running about $25k right now. That's what the market has set, and frankly, there isn't a whole lot of wiggle room, since the legacy carriers have basically decided that they'd rather have their regional feed go out of business than pay them any more than they're already paying them. Therefore, if people aren't applying at those rates, then you've got a shortage.

 

[moxiepilot]

A pilot with a certificate but who isn't interested in a job is not "available.".

So by your interpretation, because I have no interest in making $30,000 a year I'm not available? I suppose you should tell my current employer that, since you know, they pay me a respectable wage and all...

Again, not a pilot shortage. It's a financial management issue.

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

So by your interpretation, because I have no interest in making $30,000 a year I'm not available? I suppose you should tell my current employer that, since you know, they pay me a respectable wage and all...

Again, not a pilot shortage. It's a financial management issue.

It's not a financial management issue when the money isn't available to pay any more. You guys can scream and holler all you want about the pay being too low, but airlines can't pay you with money that doesn't exist. The regionals aren't faking their financial situation. A dozen regionals are fighting over the scraps tossed at them by the three customers that they have to market themselves to. That's it. Three customers. No more. When your only three available customers decide that the product you have to offer is no longer worth anymore money, you have nowhere to go to get more money, and you can't offer newhires anymore money.

 

[MikeD]

It's not a financial management issue when the money isn't available to pay any more. You guys can scream and holler all you want about the pay being too low, but airlines can't pay you with money that doesn't exist. The regionals aren't faking their financial situation. A dozen regionals are fighting over the scraps tossed at them by the three customers that they have to market themselves to. That's it. Three customers. No more. When your only three available customers decide that the product you have to offer is no longer worth anymore money, you have nowhere to go to get more money, and you can't offer newhires anymore money.

Don't many/most regionials only have one customer, putting them even more at the mercy of things they can't control or change?

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

Don't many/most regionials only have one customer, putting them even more at the mercy of things they can't control or change?

It's a mixed bag. Some have one customer (Eagle), others have several (Republic). In either case, though, even if you're serving two customers, and both customers have come to the same conclusion about the value of your service, you're screwed.

 

[derg]

It's a mixed bag. Some have one customer (Eagle), others have several (Republic). In either case, though, even if you're serving two customers, and both customers have come to the same conclusion about the value of your service, you're screwed.

Mesa!

 

[PhilosopherPilot]

Don't many/most regionials only have one customer, putting them even more at the mercy of things they can't control or change?

Some have all three, like XJT, but it's as if the CEOs got together about 6 years ago and said, "Boys, it's time to squeeze the regionals." You can have 100 customers, but if they all get together to fix the contracts, you're screwed.

It's almost like they unionized in reverse...