WSJ: Airline-Pilot Shortage Arrives Ahead of Schedule

[CoffeeIcePapers]

Here's an example. If the pay and benefits weren't a barrier to entry (read: higher and more) and the average regional pilot had a reasonable chance to move forward to the majors in a short amount of time, you'd pull all sorts of folks out of the woodwork into the profession.

Keep in mind, there are guys like @fly22, @drunkenbeagle and even @CLR4ILS that never entered the pilot labor pool that would dive in for the right numbers. Hell, if you could start at $80K in the regionals with decent working conditions and be confident that you'll be in the high $100's or early $200's in a few years at the majors (not unreasonable), hell, we could probably even get @MikeD fitted for a double-breasted coat and a hat.

Really, by your definition, there is no such thing as a shortage. If there was a virus that killed off half the beef supply in the world, the price would go up. By your definition, there would be no beef shortage, just a lack of people willing to buy it at those prices.

 

[Soku39]

Really, by your definition, there is no such thing as a shortage. If there was a virus that killed off half the beef supply in the world, the price would go up. By your definition, there would be no beef shortage, just a lack of people willing to buy it at those prices.

Notice that you said the price would go up. This is true, the difference is that airlines have different ways of dealing with a lack of meat in the seats, and our wages are not going up.

Edit:Thinking about it further a virus is something uncontrollable, something unforseen, an actual problem. This shortage could be solved, literally overnight, if it paid decently.

 

[block30]

I think we all agree It is the generalization of the term "Pilot Shortage" which is the issue at hand. It's a recruiting tool used for decades.

The term has always been synonymous with recruiting bewildered victims (generally youths with a dream to fly one day for a Delta, United, American, regardless the cost, "I wanna fly a JET, no matter the cost I'll be flying a JET, and will make money later etc). The drum roll of Pilot Shortage lured them into the low paying regional ranks quickly. With the promise of getting into the "MAJORS" quickly....

The "Shortage" drum roll only recruit folks into the dream (there is a JET job waiting for you).

P.s. Remember the nursing shortage drum roll? Remember now many youths who didn't want to be a nurse started jumping head first into Nursing Programs nationwide for that $55-$65K salary? New York City Colleges/Universities (for example) are saturated with nursing candidate so much so that the program requirements have skyrocketed now that staffing needs are being met. The pay was worth it.

In know I've talked a lot about nursing and two/four year medical programs. The ROI seems to be really good from the people I've talked to...50 to 80k without breaking too much of sweat shortly after starting. I think they usually do some sort of professional development too, like associates to bachelors or bachelors to masters with at least some financial aid from work. Making north of 100k going this route is not unheard of, and I know for a fact these medical programs in my area have students on year-plus waiting lists because the demand is so high.

This, among other reasons, leads me to believe that raising pay and/or ensuring career progression from regional (or UPS/Fed Ex feeder) to mainline would be felt in a positive way. Such positive changes would be felt all the way down to the flight schools. In other words, this is not a lost expense on management's balance sheet. Rather, fair compensation is a *necessary* component of developing- not killing off-the future supply of pilots (or that of any profession.)

 

[CoffeeIcePapers]

Edit:Thinking about it further a virus is something uncontrollable, something unforseen, an actual problem. This shortage could be solved, literally overnight, if it paid decently.

Maybe for the next couple of years, but there is a finite supply of ATP qualified pilots who want to fly professionally, and that supply is dwindling. Either way, it's not like any airline could magically raise their pay rates overnight. It would have to be negotiated through the unions, who seem to be poor negotiators at the regional level.

 

[jgheggie]

This is what unions were supposed to accomplish right? These unions agreed to these wages. Pay will not increase simply because of a "shortage".
By the way....the people who vote on the union contracts are only made up of around 10% of 1st year FOs with low pay. So they are dust in the wind when lobbying for higher starting pay.

It would have to be negotiated through the unions, who seem to be poor negotiators at the regional level.

People keep saying that the rookies coming in shouldn't accept the low pay at the regionals because it allows regionals to keep offering low pay. Well I beg to differ...it is the union contracts that the SENIOR people signed that dictate the pay. Not the rookies accepting the pay the seniors outlined!!

 

[JustinS]

People keep saying that the rookies coming in shouldn't accept the low pay at the regionals because it allows regionals to keep offering low pay. Well I beg to differ...it is the union contracts that the SENIOR people signed that dictate the pay. Not the rookies accepting the pay the seniors outlined!!

When did this downward spiral of concessionary contracts at the regional level even begin? Serious question... It leads me to believe that back in the day, things had to have been better at the regionals. Am I wrong? I'm sure what has helped this downward spiral is the SJS and the "buy your job in the right seat of a Beech 1900" idea that infiltrated the industry less than a decade ago.

As a CFI and perspective 121 regional pilot, I've been paying a lot of attention to the cyclical nature of race to the bottom of the barrel, and I just began to wonder, when did it start?

 

[CoffeeIcePapers]

When did this downward spiral of concessionary contracts at the regional level even begin? Serious question... It leads me to believe that back in the day, things had to have been better at the regionals. Am I wrong? I'm sure what has helped this downward spiral is the SJS and the "buy your job in the right seat of a Beech 1900" idea that infiltrated the industry less than a decade ago.

As a CFI and perspective 121 regional pilot, I've been paying a lot of attention to the cyclical nature of race to the bottom of the barrel, and I just began to wonder, when did it start?

I think the regional jet explosion started in the late 90's/early 2000's. Prior to 9/11, "commuters" were exactly that. I think the starting wages back then were only slightly worse than they are now, WITHOUT adjusting for inflation or the size of the aircraft. Also, I think upgrade times were relatively quick. @Derg obviously can chime in on this better than I can.

Edit: Or you could end up like this poor bastard on another forum

I've been reading lots of articles, comments on articles, blogs, etc. on pilot pay. Comments on that New York Times one, for example. I decided to pull out my tax returns and post the results as a year by year example to the general public. Comments were closed, however. Since I pulled them out I thought I might as well post it here for posterity. So here it is for John Q. Public...

After getting my degrees, certificates and ratings and flight instructing for 3 years I was hired by one of the more desirable regionals in 1998.

1998- $16,076 and I was home about 10 days per month.

1999- $23,868 and I was home about 12 days per month.

2000- $27,503 and I was home about 14 days per month.

2001- $40,149 I upgraded to captain early that year. I was home about 12 days per month.

2002- $40,278 The end of 2002 my domicile was closed and all crew members were forced to sit reserve at distant domiciles. I was home about 11 days per month.

2003- $21,342 A third of our pilots were furloughed. I had to downgrade back to first officer. I had a top first officer line, but a long commute. I was home about 13 days per month.

2004- Quit the airlines.

2008- Went back to work for a different regional. I brought home about $900 per month. After a few months I was displaced again and couldn't afford a place to live. I didn't want to do a killer commute. Quit the airlines the end of 2008.

I think this represents a fairly typical career path and pay scale of a regional pilot.

Ouch

 

[SeanD]

I think the regional jet explosion started in the late 90's/early 2000's. Prior to 9/11, "commuters" were exactly that. I think the starting wages back then were only slightly worse than they are now, WITHOUT adjusting for inflation or the size of the aircraft. Also, I think upgrade times were relatively quick. @Derg obviously can chime in on this better than I can.

I first realized it when I saw the Comair Academy ad in a flight magazine back in 1998 or 99.

 

[jgheggie]

When did this downward spiral of concessionary contracts at the regional level even begin? Serious question... It leads me to believe that back in the day, things had to have been better at the regionals. Am I wrong? I'm sure what has helped this downward spiral is the SJS and the "buy your job in the right seat of a Beech 1900" idea that infiltrated the industry less than a decade ago.

As a CFI and perspective 121 regional pilot, I've been paying a lot of attention to the cyclical nature of race to the bottom of the barrel, and I just began to wonder, when did it start?

That's a good question. My guess is that every bankruptcy, economic crisis, and terrorist attack in the last 10-15 years has played a huge role. The airlines use these events as negotiation ammo to "restructure" union contracts. They say things like "XY airline went belly up because of financial issues. We will also fail if we do not renegotiate and lower operating costs". Then the unions fall for it and renegotiate. Before you know it pensions are gone and first year FO pay is $20k. Then when profits start increasing, the airlines refuse to renegotiate for wage increases.

The "pay for right seat" schemes certainly added fuel to the fire. If these guys pay to fly then they will be extremely happy to accept low pay...after all, at least it's pay!

Studying economics, and watching other labor industries has really made me think that the pilot unions work for the airlines. Why else do they out up with the pay? Why are pilots so afraid to go on strike to change working conditions? I guess it's because there will always be a young aviator willing to fly cheap. But with the 1500hr rule I would say now is certainly time to take advantage of the airlines and strike for more pay! The status quo has changed.

 

[SeanD]

:stir:

 

[CoffeeIcePapers]

The status quo has changed.

And PSA just took it in the rear. GOOOOOO ALPA!

 

[JustinS]

Yeah I think I misspoke when I said less than a decade ago. When I said that I was thinking late 90s, but less than a decade is now beyond 2004! I feel like I'm getting older...

Thanks for the insight guys.

 

[elmetal]

People keep saying that the rookies coming in shouldn't accept the low pay at the regionals because it allows regionals to keep offering low pay. Well I beg to differ...it is the union contracts that the SENIOR people signed that dictate the pay. Not the rookies accepting the pay the seniors outlined!!

The problem is that in every TA they come up with, there's something for every guy in the pilot group. most senior guys don't care about the captain cap because the agreement has a 'flowthrough' and that's the only piece of the puzzle they care about. 2nd year guys will vote yes because flow through means quicker upgrade for them. so on, and so forth. There's something for everyone in those things it's a sleight of hand if you will.

"LOOK! QUICK UPGRADE" 'takes per diem price and cuts it'
"LOOK GUYS! WE HAVE NEW SHINY JETS!!!!" 'caps current pay, doesn't even make new payscale for larger jet'


so on and so forth............

 

[Hootie]

Sounds more like the WSJ is experiencing a shortage of journalists who can use simple logic. American Airlines is looking to hire 1,500 pilots over the next 5 years and they received over 10,000 applications. On what planet would that situation be described as a shortage?

 

[ChasenSFO]

Sounds more like the WSJ is experiencing a shortage of journalists who can use simple logic. American Airlines is looking to hire 1,500 pilots over the next 5 years and they received over 10,000 applications. On what planet would that situation be described as a shortage?

To be fair, many of those 10,000 will have moved on to other airlines or even other careers before AA gets to them. Not that they'll have trouble filling 1,500 seats, but they don't actually have 10,000 people on file ready to start tomorrow.

 

[Hootie]

To be fair, many of those 10,000 will have moved on to other airlines or even other careers before AA gets to them. Not that they'll have trouble filling 1,500 seats, but they don't actually have 10,000 people on file ready to start tomorrow.

Respectfully disagree amigo. If they want qualified pilots there are tens of thousands available. For everyone who leaves that 10,000 plus pool of applicants, another will fill their place. I bet another 3-5k qualified applicants dont even bother to apply because AA already has 10k plus applicants.

 

[ChasenSFO]

Respectfully disagree amigo. If they want qualified pilots there are tens of thousands available. For everyone who leaves that 10,000 plus pool of applicants, another will fill their place. I bet another 3-5k qualified applicants dont even bother to apply because AA already has 10k plus applicants.

That is true, I'm just pointing out that if all the legacies have 10,000 resumes on file, its mostly the same 10,000 people on file for each legacy carrier. Either way, just restates the old saying "It's not what you know, but who you know". Only one way to stand out in a pool that huge, and that's networking.

 

[Hootie]

Only one way to stand out in a pool that huge, and that's networking.

Seriously.

 

[Finny]

Wouldn't the 10,000 people on file also be on file for United, Delta, FedEx, UPS, etc?

 

[jgheggie]

Does anyone know how many pilots are employed by airlines in the US?

I just read an AOPA article that said there are 144,000+ ATP pilots. Seems like a lot.