Cherokee_Cruiser
Bronteroc
Regional guys with 4-5 yrs are senior and have golden handcuffs. Really? These people need a history lesson on regional airlines.
Still a good time to go regional?
- Thread starter 86BravoPapa
- Start date
Regional guys with 4-5 yrs are senior and have golden handcuffs. Really? These people need a history lesson on regional airlines.
AAPalmTree
Well-Known Member
totally not what the super successful day traders I fly with tell me.
Beefy McGee
Well-Known Member
Would you leave a regional, making over $100k for an LCC and make $56/hr if your flow to AA was a year away?
86BravoPapa
Well-Known Member
I'm not sure that's really a "golden handcuff" situation.
Beefy McGee
Well-Known Member
Folks are saying these 4-5 year guys are fools for waiting on the flow and not bailing to first year pay cut at an LCC.
86BravoPapa
Well-Known Member
Well 4 or 5 year regional guys may still be several years from flowing. Except for those hired around 2016, I don't think flow timelines have really panned out as advertised.
Beefy McGee
Well-Known Member
You guys aren't getting it. Lots of regional pilots ARE getting on at LCCs in under two years. Then the flow times start to shrink rapidly for all the guys who stick around and doesn't pop off to the LCCs. No one who has a flow over ten years is going to see it over ten years for long. As long as a pilot keeps their training record clean and doesn't do anything stupid on the job, they will have the option to either decide to make the jump to an LCC or cargo in a couple years and move on, acquire enough time to get on with somebody else (legacy/Fedex/UPS/Southwest) within 4-5 years, or get to 4-5 years and see that their flow has shrunk down to only another year or two and decide to not bother applying anywhere else any more and just stick that out. There are lots of options and that 6-7 year flow prediction keeps working out because that many pilots are choosing other options along the way. Someone's flow will benefit from those who choose to leave early.
Just about every training class from 4-5 years ago at my company is down to only half the pilots still on property, because they have gone on to other places at all different levels of the 121 world. That's going to happen to the classes that were hired in the past couple years as well and will probably continue for the next several years. Attrition outside the flow is still happening at all levels of the seniority list.
As long as COVID-19 hysteria doesn't wreck things, this will probably continue due to all the legacy retirements and LCC expansion.
You can get in the pipeline at a regional and start getting that experience and building quality time fast to move on while things are good, or take your chances building time elsewhere.
Just about every training class from 4-5 years ago at my company is down to only half the pilots still on property, because they have gone on to other places at all different levels of the 121 world. That's going to happen to the classes that were hired in the past couple years as well and will probably continue for the next several years. Attrition outside the flow is still happening at all levels of the seniority list.
As long as COVID-19 hysteria doesn't wreck things, this will probably continue due to all the legacy retirements and LCC expansion.
You can get in the pipeline at a regional and start getting that experience and building quality time fast to move on while things are good, or take your chances building time elsewhere.
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chrisreedrules
Master Blaster
Everyone better get comfortable where they’re at. The music has officially stopped, many just don’t want to admit it to themselves just yet. I’m not being alarmist at all, just watch what unfolds this week. The market is going to tank and the federal government is going to recommend that people stop traveling. That plus many corporations will extend their international travel ban to domestic as well and that’s it. No ones flying.
Hiboglossi
The Most Depressing Person
It looks like the music will probably have completely stopped in another month, so if you want to make a career move it would probably be best to do it now. Of course if you start class at a regional today you probably have an excellent chance of being furloughed or "Comaired" within a few months, so I'm not sure if it would be wise for the OP to give up their current job to start at a regional. If you're a CFI or in another low time job, I suppose it might be worth it as this will probably be the last chance to break into the airlines for a few years.
Roger Roger
Bottom of the list
At least the airlines will have cheap fuel.
Autothrust Blue
"Well, on the Brasilia..."
Always look on the bright side etc.
AA34
Well-Known Member
I work for one of the largest medical device companies in the world. They have shut down travel international and must have approval for anything domestic. I’m in a role that requires travel - weird times.
chipdumper
Well-Known Member
I’m SHOCKED that Delta is waiving change fees. That stupid flat rate $200 fee is gold to them. They got me on it again two weeks ago.
Maximilian_Jenius
Super User
So how about on the other side of the industry? Low time (building) pilot jobs. Part 135, pipeline, aerial survey, jump pilots et al. How will COVID 19, but moreso a global recession affect that industry and those jobs? And the people about to, or just finishing primary training?
Asking for a friend. Okay, it's really for me.
Asking for a friend. Okay, it's really for me.
Kingairer
'Tiger Team' Member
Once the music stops, everything stops. If majors don’t hire, no one leaves regionals, if no spots at regional CfI, pipeline etc don’t leave, etc etc... the freight will keep flying but the competitiveness for those type of jobs will grow. Add in some of these A-holes dream of age 68 and you have 2000s all
Over again.
Hiboglossi
The Most Depressing Person
I didn't start doing Aerial Survey until 2014 when the economy was in decent shape again but from what I understand the aerial survey industry wasn't hit too hard last recession. But aerial survey has grown significantly as an industry over the last 15 or 20 years, so I think a lot of that growth helped save it from too many ill effects of the recession, and I don't know if that will be the case for the coming downturn.
Fortunately most of those jobs shouldn't be hit as hard by Covid 19 itself as the airlines since they don't carry passengers. I could see something like jump pilots being hit hard by a recession since skydiving seems like a luxury people would cut out during hard times but I don't know enough about that industry.
Unfortunately what @Kingairer said is largely correct about the music stopping. I know of people who got their commercial certificate around the start of the last recession and had trouble ever securing employment as a pilot. Others did ok but got stuck in low time jobs such as instructing for several years when they presumably hoped to go to the airlines much sooner.
Maximilian_Jenius
Super User
That's exactly my fear. . . not trying to get another psych position or juvenile correction officer job next month, to pay the bills while I wait for a call. Ugh.
RetiredATLATC
Well-Known Member
If, as some say, this is going to be a clusterf•, good luck @Maximillian_Jenius and everyone else in the same boat. Not a praying man, but I'll say a good word all the same.
Maximilian_Jenius
Super User
This crap happened to me last time I tried to get into the industry back in 2008. Only this time I have a $60k flight loan to pay back. So I actually have skin in the game this time. Not just regrets like last time. I have the f-ing worst luck.
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