Hiring boom in ~5 years?

Slugger

Slugger

Well-Known Member
At the UND Aerospace camp I just got back from, a few of the speakers said that there will be a hiring boom in around 5-7 years because the older pilots will be retiring. Do you guys think there will be one, and if so, will the hiring be like it was 4 or 5 years ago (300hr FOs at regionals)? I am a junior in high school and I want to hear from some other people before I choose my major/minor in college. ATC sounds appealing, but if there are going to be a lot of job opportunities in the airlines, I'd rather go there. Thanks.
 
Absolutely true. The hiring boom they speak of actually started in 04-05 and ended abruptly middle of last year due to the Age 65 rule. If age 65 never happened it would be a whole different story right now.

Every pilot on furlough right now can thank Every pilot over age 60 that continues to fly.
 
It's possible but it's really hard to predict. It is true that the new age rule delayed for a few years a lot of retirements that were helping the hiring boom last time but it's not the only factor. A lot of it has to do with the health of the airline business itself and it is influenced by all sorts of things like regulations, public perception, taxes, OPEC, ect. Also I think in this economy you're going to see people cutting back to the basic necessities for awhile all that money people got out of their home equity to spend on vacations is gone.
 
Oh how I am getting tired of hearing hiring booms again. ATC good money, sleep in my own bed every night, sleep with my future blow up wife, and don't have to worry about furlough. Ah hell you got me tempted now.
 
Slugger said:
At the UND Aerospace camp I just got back from, a few of the speakers said that there will be a hiring boom in around 5-7 years because the older pilots will be retiring. Do you guys think there will be one, and if so, will the hiring be like it was 4 or 5 years ago (300hr FOs at regionals)? I am a junior in high school and I want to hear from some other people before I choose my major/minor in college. ATC sounds appealing, but if there are going to be a lot of job opportunities in the airlines, I'd rather go there. Thanks.
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Anybody that tells you a"global pilot shortage" is looming, or "there has never been a better time" to get in.......just wants to sign you up for flight school to take your money.

It is impossible to predict what will happen in five years. The economy is the primary driving factor, not that BS line about retirements coming up. Should the economy recover, then sure 4-5 years from now a lot of hiring MIGHT happen. But there is an equal chance that the economy could be in a hyper-inflation depression, and airlines could be going Tango Uniform. There is also an equal chance that Montgomery Scott could invent the transporter in the next five years making airplanes obsolete.

Take your time, get your training as cheap as you can safely get it, and be patient. That is about the best you can do for the unknown that is the future.
 
Barring complete economic collapse, the airlines will be hiring at a pace never seen before in the history of the business. This is why ab initio and MPL are being looked at. If you look at the slated retirement schedule post 2012 every regional seniority list could be emptied and the legacies still could not finish filling seats. Todd probably could elaborate more on this since ALPA has data similiar to the ones a senior OBAP member showed me.
 
Trip7 said:
Barring complete economic collapse, the airlines will be hiring at a pace never seen before in the history of the business. This is why ab initio and MPL are being looked at. If you look at the slated retirement schedule post 2012 every regional seniority list could be emptied and the legacies still could not finish filling seats. Todd probably could elaborate more on this since ALPA has data similiar to the ones a senior OBAP member showed me.
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I really hope you're right.
 
Trip7 said:
Barring complete economic collapse, the airlines will be hiring at a pace never seen before in the history of the business. This is why ab initio and MPL are being looked at. If you look at the slated retirement schedule post 2012 every regional seniority list could be emptied and the legacies still could not finish filling seats. Todd probably could elaborate more on this since ALPA has data similiar to the ones a senior OBAP member showed me.
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Wasn't Kit talking about a hiring boom EVERY year:insane: He had data behind him too:confused:
 
If there is a hiring boom. Then only regionals will be hiring simply because the majors are shrinking and giving the flying to regionals. I will give you an example

LEts look at Rochester, New York Granted it's not a big city. But it is a type of airport that is affected


Here it is in 1984
0160587.jpg






Here it is now

1288708.jpg



With the exception of Air Tran and Jet Blue Look what type of airplanes fly there now.
 
With all the aircraft deliveries, retirements, lack of people learning to fly, and the need from airlines all over the world with thousands of aircraft on order to find English speaking pilots, I'd be shocked if a few years down the road jobs aren't all over the place.

Not to mention when the economy turns around there will be tons of cheap planes sitting in the desert and way less competition in the domestic market with all the mergers and bankruptcy's, so I'd venture to guess we're going to see a ton of short lived airlines popping up just like what happened in the 80s and 90s.
 
ChasenSFO said:
Not to mention when the economy turns around there will be tons of cheap planes sitting in the desert and way less competition in the domestic market with all the mergers and bankruptcy's, so I'd venture to guess we're going to see a ton of short lived airlines popping up just like what happened in the 80s and 90s.
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May I direct you to www.familyairlines.com ?
 
CrippleHawk said:
If there is a hiring boom. Then only regionals will be hiring simply because the majors are shrinking and giving the flying to regionals. I will give you an example

LEts look at Rochester, New York Granted it's not a big city. But it is a type of airport that is affected
Click to expand...

STL is another good example.
 
Sprint100 said:
Wasn't Kit talking about a hiring boom EVERY year:insane:
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I was wondering if he was a guest speaker at that event. I think things will get going in 2012 when the 5-yr extension runs out.

With capacity reduction, who know how things will balance out. I just HOPE scope survives.
 
Since we're on the subject, just wanted to point something out I came across looking at departedflights.com.

Mainline carriers in SDF 1995:
American
Continental
Delta
Northwest
Southwest
TWA
United
US Air
Valujet

Mainline Carriers at SDF today:
American (twice daily)
Delta (twice daily)
Southwest

The story is the same for almost all downline airports.
 
Regional flying has risen exponentially since 2000. The logjam at the regionals is here to stay. As someone already said, the big carriers will cease to exist if things stay the same.
 
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