Hiring boom in ~5 years?

bunghole said:
FYI...in aviation there is not such thing as a hiring boom, only a hiring burp, cough then its over. It happens so fast that its over by the time it starts. The sweet spot of course is to train and network while the industry is down so you will be prepared for future aviation related abuse. :insane:
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It's more like a burp, fart, regurgitation, heartburn and then it's over!
 
Joe Gremlin said:
So it was all due to the age 65 rule? Good to know. For a while there I was worried that things like consumer spending levels and personal income levels and unemployment rates might actually effect how many customers the airlines have which might in turn actually effect how many pilots the airlines need. Nice to know that all that technical stuff has nothing to do with it and its all just because one group of pilots decided to work a couple of extra years. Hallelujah, happy days will be here again just as soon as those old goats decide to hurry up and die.
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If Age 65 had not happened airlines would be hiring right now, not furloughing. Period.
 
I'm over 50, so instead of throwing trillions $$ away haphazardly, just pay me a boatload to retire now.
Immediately, some aspiring young pilot gets my job.
I'll buy a hotel stateside somewhere and spend all my profits on American women, whiskey and cars.
Crashpad discounts for pilots away from home, even!
 
Hiring boom or not, if you're positioned to catch that ride when it happens, you're still SOL.

Flight schools sell this viewpoint- "be ready! Take our rapid advancement courses so you don't miss the bus!"

The ink was barely dry on my commercial certificate when the last hiring boom was at its peak- I was lucky to grab that last chance to get on board.

A year later, everything stopped, and where everybody was is where they'll be for a good while now.

In other words, Your Mileage May Vary. Even if you DO spend a mint 'positioning yourself' for the next hiring wave (or however you do it) you still might not catch it.

Ask yourself.. if it's worth the risk.
 
Hey Charlie think about it like this.

In another 5 years, you might have a chance to upgrade at Eagle, where I'll just be getting recalled.

Never saw that one happening...
 
jtrain609 said:
Hey Charlie think about it like this.

In another 5 years, you might have a chance to upgrade at Eagle, where I'll just be getting recalled.

Never saw that one happening...
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Aye, that's odd, indeed. Strange how this business shifts these days.
If another hiring wave kicks up, upgrades will come fast. Because of the bubble in our seniority list, the upgrade time will snap to about 4 years actual seniority very quickly. Oddly enough- retirement will affect our list as well. We've got a lot of senior guys pushing retirement. Go figure.
 
Trip7 said:
Just got word CAL will furlough 308 this fall if they can't get enough oldtimers to retire early....this Age 65 rule is KILLING the youth in this industry. Who's bright idea was this? I don't ever want to hear pilots blaming joe six pack or management for their problems. You want to point the blame, take a look at the person sitting next to you on the flightdeck. Pilots are, and will ALWAYS BE, their own worst enemy.
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You make it sound like it was that guys choice to stay there and F you over. Maybe he has too because his pension is gone and the economy isn't doing so swell right now for retirement. He just may need to save up some money for the next couple years after 60 so he can retire.:dunno:
My dad doesn't fly, but he is 61 and he told me he wishes he could retire, but his 401K and other investments took a big hit and he says he needs about 3 good years for the market before he can.
 
Trip7 said:
If Age 65 had not happened airlines would be hiring right now, not furloughing. Period.
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Age 65 was a bit part in the cause of furloughing.... the economic downturn, and Delta buying NWA seem to have been far more major players. And, I wouldn't disrespect a guy just because he wants to work until 65..... now that the rule exists, you can bet your butt I will want to fly to 65 now barring any health setbacks.

And let me bold this part.... DELTA is the reason that some of the regionals it is working with are furloughing, because it likes to play us like fiddles. If NWA had bought out DELTA, we would have all been fine... NWA attitude towards regionals was "eh.... go play with your toys", not ASA gets planes no I mean Pinnacle no I mean Freedom etc....
 
Trip7 said:
Barring complete economic collapse, the airlines will be hiring at a pace never seen before in the history of the business.
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How could you possibly know this.


Trip7 said:
Just got word CAL will furlough 308 this fall if they can't get enough oldtimers to retire early....this Age 65 rule is KILLING the youth in this industry. Who's bright idea was this? I don't ever want to hear pilots blaming joe six pack or management for their problems. You want to point the blame, take a look at the person sitting next to you on the flightdeck. Pilots are, and will ALWAYS BE, their own worst enemy.
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WOW, ever think that a lot of the young guys are lucky to be in airline cockpits at all, given so many were hired with hardly a spec of flight time or experience. Just as a lot of the older guys are UNlucky, having been through furloughs, paycuts, and loss of retirement. Playing the blame game is pointless, there is ALWAYS something that will slow you down... just accept it and move on. The industry is constantly changing, who knows what will happen tomorrow.
 
There will never be a hiring boom in aviation since the airlines are now recycling the corpses of old airline pilots.


Universal Delta
Starring Jean Claude Van Damme
Coming fall of 2011


Seriously man, this business ebbs and flows more violently than most. Just wait it out and if you're lucky you'll never have to work for an airline.
 
esa17 said:
There will never be a hiring boom in aviation since the airlines are now recycling the corpses of old airline pilots.


Universal Delta
Starring Jean Claude Van Damme
Coming fall of 2011


Seriously man, this business ebbs and flows more violently than most. Just wait it out and if you're lucky you'll never have to work for an airline.
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"It is not "green" to bury dead people, its killing trees and adding pollution adding to the Greenhouse effect."- Some paid liberal 'expert' on a through analysis. It is also more economically efficent to re use dead pilots in regards to the long term financial stability of an airline company. Also his flight experience will stastically create more safer flights.

As I said before, this industry is very dynamic. It ALWAYS adjusts to cutting costs. So there will be always some type of movement, reducing of aircraft, addition of more fuel efficient aircraft, new routes, cancellation of old routes, competition. until they all meet a level of equilibrium there will always be some type of change within a company. If you want to fly then by all means do not let anyone on here or anywhere, discourage you from doing so. When it all comes down to it, it is all based on luck. But you can better your chances by networking, having more hours, and other qualifications.
 
It'll be a tough decision for me. I would love to fly, but I don't wanna have to live off foodstamp money (if I ever get to the regionals). ATC just sounds so much more appealing.....
 
I sure as heck DO NOT want to be living out of a roller board 20 days/mo (ok MAYBE 15) when I'm 65. Living the dream or missing life?
 
Trip7 said:
Just got word CAL will furlough 308 this fall if they can't get enough oldtimers to retire early....this Age 65 rule is KILLING the youth in this industry. Who's bright idea was this? I don't ever want to hear pilots blaming joe six pack or management for their problems. You want to point the blame, take a look at the person sitting next to you on the flightdeck. Pilots are, and will ALWAYS BE, their own worst enemy.
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Gotta do it. . .

surreal1221 said:
Today on an appointment I met a retired Delta Captain.

This gentlemen retired at 60 years in 2007. Following his retirement, he went to work for Kit Darby's AIR Inc. outfit. This gentlemen has a son who is now #13 from the bottom at ASA.

This gentlemen, during his time at Kit Darby's outfit, managed to provide career consultations to a number of his peers at the various other major/legacy companies within this country.

The reason I bring this up is that I had no expectation of meeting a retired Delta Captain today. I only planned to meet with a potential customer, find out their needs, and try to exceed them.

What he ended up telling me was that he would encounter on a regular basis fellow 58-59 year old heavy jet captains who didn't want to retire at Age 60 and were hoping and praying that they'd be able to stay on for another 5 years.

Now, he didn't seem to really subscribe to this thought much because he realized why he himself was able to achieve such success flying jets around. Because people left, retired, and/or died. If it wasn't for those who came before him leaving at their appropriate time, he wouldn't have achieved his own career goals.

He made it a habit of challenging those seeking to fly past 60. He informed them of the damage they have done to their body, and how it will get increasingly worse over the next five years. He informed them that it was their ill-fated financial decisions that have put the stress on their careers and their families.

He also asked them a simple question:

How did you get to your current seat?

The answer was simple and obvious. Because someone left.

It seemed that at the end of the conversation all he wanted to do was reaffirm the fact that these guys were able to reach the pinnacle of their careers because guys before them left, retired, got on that boat on the lake, and enjoyed the rest of their lives.

His end goal was to remind these individuals he provided consultations to that it wasn't the younger guy's/gal's fault that he/she had a second or third marriage, or bought the bigger house, or sent their son or daughter to that ivy league school they really couldn't afford. But, because of the nature of our business they were able to move on and get to where they were.

I left that conversation being very surprised. I've encountered perhaps one other Captain who joyously left his seat at 60 years old, without a complaint. What meant more to me than anything was that this guy knew where all of us are coming from - at least those of us who don't plan on sticking it out at our crap regional. He understood, and was willing to go to bat for us younger folks just trying to make a living doing what we love.

I sure as hell hope there are more guys like him out there.
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Quick questions for those blaming Age 65 for the dilemma of the youth at the airlines:

1. Since seniority is the name of the game at the airlines, shouldn't what those senior to you....ala staying with their job vs going when the law allows for it now.....shouldn't they have that right since they theoretically "earned" it, and are ahead of you? To use the title of the other thread here......haven't they "paid more dues" than you?

2. If the roles were reversed, would you be willing to leave for the sake of some co-pilot far down the list saying you should since he feels his career is stagnating?

Just curious........
 
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