Industry slowdown, will it happen?

[JDean3204]

The economy seems a little iffy these days, granted the retirements will happen either way but what is everyone’s opinion on a slow down in the next year?

Right now all we hear is pilot shortage and majors hiring thousands in the next few years, but I think the slowdown is about 6-12 months away. A lot of spending going on right now is excess savings many accumulated during Covid or just racking up debt to do the things Covid wouldn’t allow for two years. Many housing markets are in an artificially high bubble due to low inventory, but the prices are heading down quick in certain geographical locations. The used car market is also flipping to a complete surplus situation as well. Now I’m not an economic buff, but are those the canaries in the coal mine?

Let’s hear it, without the political banter would be nice.

 

[mikecweb]

It’s already happening on the freight side. Has been for about 8 months.

 

[Doug Masters]

GDP growth, low unemployment, and sticky inflation. We are in weird economic times right now and keep hearing about an impending massive recession that doesn't seem to be materializing. I think the most influential economic realities of the next decade or so will be the breaking down of globalization and the focus on domestic politics worldwide. That combined with the war in Ukraine and tension in the South China Sea will more sharply divide states that have previously been economically intertwined. This will probably especially affect (effect?) cargo carriers as international supply lines begin to change. Perhaps in ways that lower the amount of international long haul cargo demand. That being said, I think people will continue to travel at large rates as telework becomes more accepted and more childless generations enter their prime earning years. Also, the corporate market will continue to flourish as the top segment of society is able to maintain wealth even through troubled times. I'll probably be wrong about all of this, but increased globalization has been a generally agreed goal in most of the postwar world for a large part of our careers. I think the ramifications of abandoning these policies on the modern air travel industry remain to be seen and are hard to forecast.

 

[Hiboglossi]

Only a matter of when. I don't have enough economic expertise to say whether 6-12 months a likely time frame for the next downturn to start, and at any rate the current economy is in some ways unusual by historic standards, but it's certainly possible.

The economy seems a little iffy these days, granted the retirements will happen either way but what is everyone’s opinion on a slow down in the next year?

Not an expert on retirement numbers at major airlines but haven't most of the vaunted retirements already happened? Especially since so many people retired early during the Pandemic? 2023 might well be the last year major airlines ever hire in any significant numbers.

 

[MikeD]

More MD-11s to be living at VCV soon

 

[///AMG]

Only a matter of when. I don't have enough economic expertise to say whether 6-12 months a likely time frame for the next downturn to start, and at any rate the current economy is in some ways unusual by historic standards, but it's certainly possible.



Not an expert on retirement numbers at major airlines but haven't most of the vaunted retirements already happened? Especially since so many people retired early during the Pandemic? 2023 might well be the last year major airlines ever hire in any significant numbers.

The retirement projections peak in a few years, at least in the most recent docs I’ve seen. Winding down towards the end of the decade. That being said, I still don’t really understand how the 60-65 retirement change had such a wild effect. That was a bit after the Vietnam era guys retired, and drew from several eras of low to zero growth and many furloughs/bankruptcies. So I don’t pretend to understand any of this.

 

[Lawman]

The retirement projections peak in a few years, at least in the most recent docs I’ve seen. Winding down towards the end of the decade. That being said, I still don’t really understand how the 60-65 retirement change had such a wild effect. That was a bit after the Vietnam era guys retired, and drew from several eras of low to zero growth and many furloughs/bankruptcies. So I don’t pretend to understand any of this.

We’ve known for 30 years that the follow on generations that had to replace the boomers (Gen X and Millennials) was year to year going to be to small. Boomers were the largest generation for us. They didn’t have kids enough to maintain themselves and their kids didn’t have big families as a rule because we moved into a different household model.

Aviation with the 65 age being actual law is just experiencing what the rest of industries are now running into because it kicks on at the earliest retirement age instead of a longer timeline. It’s not that people are refusing to work because they’ve suddenly recognized some kind of value, there aren’t as many people across what was the expected population for the entire spectrum of employable working age adults… funny enough it largely corrects its self in about 10-15 years. Yes… millennials did something right, because they reproduced more than Gen X did. We just have to get through a decade of a smaller group of people at their maximum in income to really drive our consumer based economy while simultaneously having a shortage of labor to work in that economy.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Brian29]

More MD-11s to be living at VCV soon

But I just started flying her…

 

[Maurus]

It’s already happening on the freight side. Has been for about 8 months.

Is that due to the economy or just a correction due to abnormally high demand during covid?

 

[CoffeeIcePapers]

Is that due to the economy or just a correction due to abnormally high demand during covid?

They bit off more than they can chew, thinking the party wouldn’t stop. Amazon did the same thing.

 

[EIR]

Is that due to the economy or just a correction due to abnormally high demand during covid?

Short answer: Both.

 

[bike21]

Is that due to the economy or just a correction due to abnormally high demand during covid?

No expert, but seems mostly favoring a correction. Still plenty of goods being moved about and I don't think brick & mortar is going to make an overnight comeback to displace e-commerce. There has been some push back and people do appreciate physical shopping but they gotta their goods to sell somehow. I believe (and hope) the cargo folks here will be fine albeit a bump in the road economic wise until we see the other side of this.

As for pax, same sentiments really. People want and need to move about the world and judging from my recent trips international travel is very much in demand. Still a lot of retirements to go and eventually when the the Ukraine war ends, the world will be on a serious upward trajectory.

 

[mikecweb]

They bit off more than they can chew, thinking the party wouldn’t stop. Amazon did the same thing.

There's a lot more to it than just that. I just don't have the energy to go into though. It's been a week.