Pilot shortage - an article

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

No such thing as a shortage. Only a mismatch of supply and demand at a given price.

That's like saying "there is not such thing as a sandwich; only meat and veggies on bread."

Damn. Now I want a sandwich.

 

[Autothrust Blue]

That's like saying "there is not such thing as a sandwich; only meat and veggies on bread."

Damn. Now I want a sandwich.

sudo make me a sandwich

 

[av8tr1]

Oh come on, the unions would never allow this!

hunt

There are a lot of jobs outside of the airlines. I would argue that there "might" be more pilot jobs outside the airlines than in. So I bet there is room for headhunters to hunt pilots.
The regional airline I just joined is hurting for pilots right now. They took me so they must really be desperate

 

[hook_dupin]

That's like saying "there is not such thing as a sandwich; only meat and veggies on bread."

Damn. Now I want a sandwich.

Except that the firms who are willing to pay $100K-$300K per year have no trouble finding sandwiches. Firms who are willing to pay sub $30K per year aren't finding bread, meat, or veg.

That's not a shortage... That's a functioning market for sandwiches.

 

[z987k]

Headhunting is already a thing in EMSland..

Really? Have they given you a big raise yet or just yearly pay cuts?

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

Except that the firms who are willing to pay $100K-$300K per year have no trouble finding sandwiches. Firms who are willing to pay sub $30K per year aren't finding bread, meat, or veg.

That's not a shortage... That's a functioning market for sandwiches.

Wrong. Your analysis falls apart when you look at the financials of the airlines. It's not a matter of being "willing" or "unwilling," it's a matter of being unable to pay what would be required in order to end the shortage. You can't just will the price elasticity away. The legacy carriers do not see enough value in regional feed in order to justify paying higher rates for the feed, so the regionals cannot increase wages without driving themselves into bankruptcy.

 

[mshunter]

I think that if there is a shortage, then it is a symptom. The factors behind the symptom do, in fact, matter.

When it matters, things will change. Right now, the ones it matters to, us, aren't the ones that make the real decisions. So from my point of view, it doesn't matter. Our pool has run dry. Unless they make it rain, it will be dry.

 

[Hiboglossi]

Howzabout we just maintain the safety level we have now, wait and see how things pan out, and THEN see about this supposed "shortage"? Or is that too radically sensible for our foxhounds on Wall St.?

Of course it is, especially when there's a slow news day and pilot shortage articles can fill space. (Or if Riddle/ATP/other flight schools gives them a check to cultivate the impression there is a looming pilot shortage )

Except that the firms who are willing to pay $100K-$300K per year have no trouble finding sandwiches. Firms who are willing to pay sub $30K per year aren't finding bread, meat, or veg.

That's not a shortage... That's a functioning market for sandwiches.

This is nitpicky but I don't know that firms paying less than $30,000 are having that much trouble finding sandwiches. I know plenty of people who just this year started flying for regionals, for instance, so they can find sandwiches but maybe not the selection they would prefer. Or they're worried about not having enough sandwiches in a few years.

 

[mshunter]

Wrong. Your analysis falls apart when you look at the financials of the airlines. It's not a matter of being "willing" or "unwilling," it's a matter of being unable to pay what would be required in order to end the shortage. You can't just will the price elasticity away. The legacy carriers do not see enough value in regional feed in order to justify paying higher rates for the feed, so the regionals cannot increase wages without driving themselves into bankruptcy.

There is one regional, who is wholly owned, who is paying big bonuses, for four years right now. The cash is there. U.S. airlines made almost $10b in profits last year. We are just seeing the tip of it right now.

 

[Boris Badenov]

so the regionals cannot increase wages without driving themselves into bankruptcy.

You're right. We can't have that, we'd drown in our tears.

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

There is one regional, who is wholly owned, who is paying big bonuses, for four years right now. The cash is there. U.S. airlines made almost $10b in profits last year. We are just seeing the tip of it right now.

Sigh. The cash of the legacies is not the cash of the regionals. You get whatever crumbs the legacies are willing to throw to you, and nothing more. The legacy carriers are shifting flying back to their own metal, because paying more for feed is not economical.

 

[Boris Badenov]

Again, where's the problem? The so-called regionals go out of bidness, flying goes back to mainline, and with even the slightest flicker of intellect or sense, the unions don't allow Lucy to pull the football away again.

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

Again, where's the problem? The so-called regionals go out of bidness, flying goes back to mainline, and with even the slightest flicker of intellect or sense, the unions don't allow Lucy to pull the football away again.

Depends on your perspective. If you're a 50 year old RJ captain, that sucks. If you're a 25 year old RJ captain, life is grand. There's also the concern that higher mainline ASM capacity is not the same thing as higher numbers of mainline jobs. SWA has been adding capacity for years by up-gauging airplanes, but nary a new job to be found. Replacing 3 RJs with 1 B717 means better jobs, but fewer of them. I know which I think is better, but not everyone will agree, depending on where they're sitting at the moment.

 

[Ajax]

Wrong. Your analysis falls apart when you look at the financials of the airlines. It's not a matter of being "willing" or "unwilling," it's a matter of being unable to pay what would be required in order to end the shortage. You can't just will the price elasticity away. The legacy carriers do not see enough value in regional feed in order to justify paying higher rates for the feed, so the regionals cannot increase wages without driving themselves into bankruptcy.

Sadly this is true. If they can outsource it to cheap labor, then whipsaw and recycle pilots at the bottom of the longevity they will.

What is prohibiting regionals from paying decent wages is the payment they get for doing said flying. So, you would have to convince the majors to pay more, then the regionals to pay more.

Two groups need raises

 

[hook_dupin]

Wrong. Your analysis falls apart when you look at the financials of the airlines. It's not a matter of being "willing" or "unwilling," it's a matter of being unable to pay what would be required in order to end the shortage. You can't just will the price elasticity away. The legacy carriers do not see enough value in regional feed in order to justify paying higher rates for the feed, so the regionals cannot increase wages without driving themselves into bankruptcy.

Industry structure is certainly limiting some consumers of pilot labor. Just because a few large employers are budget limited does not mean that market forces are removed. Firms like Surf Air, Plane Sense, and Wheels Up seem to not have any trouble filling classes at a pay level that is still pretty low.

 

[BEEF SUPREME]

Wrong. Your analysis falls apart when you look at the financials of the airlines. It's not a matter of being "willing" or "unwilling," it's a matter of being unable to pay what would be required in order to end the shortage. You can't just will the price elasticity away. The legacy carriers do not see enough value in regional feed in order to justify paying higher rates for the feed, so the regionals cannot increase wages without driving themselves into bankruptcy.

Boom. I'm also waiting for that teensy little thing that brings the industry to its knees every 10-15 years or so.

I'm basically sitting in my pool with a nice adult beverage thinking to myself "WAIT FOR IT".

But yeah. In a couple of years I'm going to try and squeeze the biggest paycheck possible out of an expatriate job in Asia.

I'll believe it when I see it.

 

[NickH]

Really? Have they given you a big raise yet or just yearly pay cuts?

Had a pay rise last year, but not enough. I've had a couple of calls this year from other companies trying to recruit.

 

[mshunter]

Sigh. The cash of the legacies is not the cash of the regionals. You get whatever crumbs the legacies are willing to throw to you, and nothing more. The legacy carriers are shifting flying back to their own metal, because paying more for feed is not economical.

I know that. But with how much flying the regionals do for the legacies, it's starting to become their problem. A cancelled flight, when you buy a ticket from Delta, no matter who does the flying, reflects bad on the person who sold the ticket in the consumers eyes.

I fully understand what you are saying. And it's not necessarily the legacies fault. But it will become their problem. The "they'll just take the flying back" mantra doesn't work. They can only do so much flying with the airplanes they have, and the people they have. All of them are already running their training departments at 110%. IMO, there is a serious problem brewing.

If the people who do your contract work can't get it done...

They are going to have to help out their regional feed. I see no other solution. Do you?

 

[z987k]

Had a pay rise last year, but not enough. I've had a couple of calls this year from other companies trying to recruit.

A raise at less than the rate of inflation?

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

I know that. But with how much flying the regionals do for the legacies, it's starting to become their problem. A cancelled flight, when you buy a ticket from Delta, no matter who does the flying, reflects bad on the person who sold the ticket in the consumers eyes.

I fully understand what you are saying. And it's not necessarily the legacies fault. But it will become their problem. The "they'll just take the flying back" mantra doesn't work. They can only do so much flying with the airplanes they have, and the people they have. All of them are already running their training departments at 110%. IMO, there is a serious problem brewing.

If the people who do your contract work can't get it done...

They are going to have to help out their regional feed. I see no other solution. Do you?

I don't see a problem to solve. What you see is wishful thinking.