What I see is cancelled flights and reduced service, leaving the door open for some of the lie cost carriers go come and steal customers. It's already happening.
I've been seeing a lot more of them in the podunks we fly into.
Pilot shortage - an article
- Thread starter typhoonpilot
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What I see is cancelled flights and reduced service, leaving the door open for some of the lie cost carriers go come and steal customers. It's already happening.
I've been seeing a lot more of them in the podunks we fly into.
SlumTodd_Millionaire
Most Hated Member
The low cost carriers don't serve those "podunks" because they aren't profitable without the kind of vast network that the legacies have to feed into. Southwest is never going to fly to Bismark. Spirit is never going to fly to Billings. And if the regional feeder demands a higher fee per departure, then those cities no longer make sense to the legacy carrier, either. Stop listening to the STW crowd. They don't know what they're talking about.
JustinS
Well-Known Member
I don't really see how you don't see a problem occurring. Every single regional is hiring. Anyone with a pulse, and the basic etiquette, and pilot skills required can pass an interview at any regional of his/her choice. I had former flight instructors who only a few years ago did not really have a choice. There were only a few regionals hiring, and the interviews were more difficult a few years ago.
I've seen recruiters from 4 different regionals visit our little part 141 flight school. Two have set up some sort of program to help trap some pilots who can work for them as soon as they get their time. Lots of free pizza, goodie bags, and "come fly our shiny jets, we have bonuses, we have fast upgrades, we have flow through, we have travel benefits, etc."
All the airlines that contract regional feed will feel the hurt when they're handing out more and more vouchers and refunds for cancelled flights because their regional feed isn't performing. Well they can just go contract another regional, but wait all the other regionals are having the same staffing issues some to greater extents than others.
I'm not saying you're wrong @ATN_Pilot entirely, but the way things are going right now, you can't say there is not a problem brewing if not already happening... Airlines like Spirit, Southwest, and Allegiant may be immune, but the majors that pull profit by getting people out of smaller cities feeding into their system to anywhere in the world might feel the hurt when you have people that will just drive to the nearest biggest city and choose to fly on a competitor for cheaper since they have to drive to the big city either way. Having a regional feed helps generate revenue and give a leg up in convenience compared to some airlines that do not have that business structure. If the regional model becomes unprofitable by raising compensation, then either it will go away, or it will HAVE to move in house.
SlumTodd_Millionaire
Most Hated Member
You guys just aren't looking at it from management's perspective. Flying FAR-MSP on a CRJ only makes business sense at a certain price. If that certain price is $8,000, and the regional carrier demands $10,000, then the route is no longer worthwhile, and it will either be dropped or frequency will be reduced and shifted to mainline equipment. They aren't going to pay you $50k to be a first year RJ FO. The economics just don't work.
And there is the problem, right there. We fly full airplanes in and out of those cities. How are they going to get from Podunk, Nowhere Ville USA, to MSP, ATL, or DTW? They can have it back. But with what airplanes, and what pilots?
I feel like they've painted themselves into a corner.
JustinS
Well-Known Member
Well, the economics MIGHT work, but that's largely up to the dynamics of the consumer, the economy, and the ticket prices on the market. Think about it this way, the guy flying FAR-MSP most likely isn't flying FAR-MSP, they could be flying FAR-MSP-HNL, or FAR-MSP-LAX etc. So this guy buys a ticket because it's more convenient than driving 4 hours to get to MSP, and to an extent is willing to pay a premium for that leg. If it were to get so expensive that they prefer to drive, they go oh cool I'm flying out of MSP, I have options like Sun Country, American, Delta, United, Southwest etc. Then they're going to find the cheapest carrier. That carrier now might not be the one that would've gotten the customer originally that had the FAR-MSP route. They then lose more money than just the FAR-MSP route.
So you really need to look at the bigger picture. The dynamics are huge, and it's honestly above my pay grade how they determine the effects of ticket pricing etc, but that's something that the management types are going to have to figure out: Do we stop serving destinations, and shrink our regional feed? Do we keep the regional feed, and raise pay to our FFD carriers to operate more reliably? Do we create a reliable feed, and save money by eliminating duplicity by putting the regional feed back into the mainline? Do we continue to let things be as they are, and allow cancellations and misconnects leading to a growing customer dissatisfaction that effect's the mainline's bottom line? Each option has its pros and cons.
Autothrust Blue
"Well, on the Brasilia..."
Our standards have been low as well, since July 2, 2012, when I was hired.hunt
There are a lot of jobs outside of the airlines. I would argue that there "might" be more pilot jobs outside the airlines than in. So I bet there is room for headhunters to hunt pilots.
The regional airline I just joined is hurting for pilots right now. They took me so they must really be desperate
SlumTodd_Millionaire
Most Hated Member
Clearly.
Everything that you've mentioned has been taken into account by management in their pricing models. They aren't willing to pay more for regional feed. Period.
JustinS
Well-Known Member
And yet some already are...
jynxyjoe
Queso King
You all need to read the above.
There's a weird exception right now with Endeavor, who is paying FO's 40-60k to fly out of Fargo, but that's a Delta thing where they kill off ASA/XJT and other feed to bring it to one or two RJ contractors and will end up playing them off one another... wait- so after buying NWA and flushing everything down the toilet the new RJ model is going to be the old NWA RJ lift model? Anyway, for some reason, Delta values that (even if they still can't staff it).
dustoff17
Still trying to reach the Top Shelf
The HUGE oil boom in ND is causing this, when that goes away, so do these flights. Delta is making money on this.
jynxyjoe
Queso King
*shrug* I'm not in the board meetings, your guess is as good as mine. To me it seems like cheap leverage, Endeavor was going to be out of pilots by Dec of 2015, which was when they needed to put a nail in ASA/XJT's contract. Again, guessing.
SlumTodd_Millionaire
Most Hated Member
There's nothing that mysterious about Delta's feed strategy. It's just the old Northwest strategy that worked marvelously, just expanded on a grander scale. And for those of you who weren't around for version 1.0, it doesn't turn out well for the regional partners.
JustinS
Well-Known Member
What specifically is there feed strategy? Just curious.
SlumTodd_Millionaire
Most Hated Member
JustinS said:
It was a pattern for two decades with Express/Pinnacle and Mesaba. Buy one, build it up, IPO it, take the cash, and then take away their flying while repeating the process with the other. Pinnacle will be kept going now until Anderson sees enough of a market for a big IPO cash out, and then the idiots who buy the shares will get screwed when he takes all of their flying and gives it to the next target. Lather, rinse, repeat. The net result is shrinking RJ feed overall, screwed over RJ pilots, and big profits for mainline. I'm telling you, Anderson is as close to a genius as the airline industry has.
jynxyjoe
Queso King
How much you wanna bet the only one buying will be Skywest and Republic when they are done pumping up Endeavor?
(little to no privately owned regional feed)
NickH
Uber Driver
No, an actual raise. The sub-inflation stuff doesn't count.
hook_dupin
Well-Known Member
As an opposite, AAG seems to be backward integrating into the regional market. Almost 50% of American's regional feed came from wholey-owned subsidiaries. The two strategies do have one thing in common: there are many pilot groups vice one.
This would be a very different industry if there were one wage standard and transferability were built into CBAs.
SlumTodd_Millionaire
Most Hated Member
One wage standard doesn't work for a variety of reasons, but transferable longevity is a viable idea. One ALPA presidential candidate was pushing it a number of years ago. Sadly, some doosh got the job instead.
hook_dupin
Well-Known Member
Fair enough... One wage standard may be impossible, but wage standards that are similar such labor costs aren't appreciably different from one company to the next. Transferability is key to making that happen.
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