Heres my take. No one knows what coming down the road. Anything can happen. The earth could be hit by a giant meteor next year, and the whole world ceases to exist. You just dont know.I hear ya, but my concern is that at anytime the FAA could decide they no longer accept any one of those alternative tests. You have to do them every year, and if 2017 rolls around and they say "no more FALANT/Optec 2000/whatever", I'll be in my late 30's with no career.
I need a letter of evidence, good for life- but it's unlikely I'll get one if I have to jump through all those new hoops outlined in the new regs. I'm pretty sure I won't pass all that stuff.
Do you fly commercially?
My advice is to do what you love. Thats it. You will deal with whatever happens as it happens. I am not advocating reckless decision making, but at the same time, you dont want to be in your late 40's (or older) wishing you would have followed your dreams.
I am in my late 30's making the career change as we speak (just finished my IR, Multi and Comm...now on to CFI, CFII and MEI). I let many other factors dictate my path along the way, and I could kick myself now for not following my dreams earlier in life. So I am doing it now before its too late.
This industry is not an easy one to say the least. Extremely unstable and cyclical, the need to pass a medical once a year that could end your career in a moment, declining wages, etc. But I would rather have done this for a while just to have experienced it than to never have done it at all.
Think of it this way. Try the alternate test and see which one feels the easiest for you. Stick with that until (or perhaps more likely IF) they make changes to that requirement. Or if you really want to be sure, go jump through the hoops for the FAA LOE and see if you can pass. If you pass, you have an LOE for life most likely. If you dont, then you perhaps move on to something else.
Just a thought. Wish you the best whatever you decide.