It's official: Virgin America to merge with Alaska Airlines

Just read that myself. Things that make you go, "Hmmmm." There were a few people who felt and said that Bransom would walk away from them eventually, now that Delta and Atlantic are hooked up.
 
You know, employees don't like it when an owner sells the airline after a short period of time.

Meh, I had an unsuccessful spin tryna mess with @Cherokee_Cruiser.
 
I've always thought it was inevitable. I haven't seen anything to suggest a long term plan here. In the past, it seemed the motto was get this place profitable, IPO it, and then sell/merge it on the market. In 2012 we deferred significant growth just to try and make a profit on the 50ish planes we had. I think the writing has been on the wall since that point. We turned a financial corner into the black (largely helped a lot by falling gas prices), successfully IPOed at the end of 2014 and have money since. But the idea of "growth" here is 5 planes per year which really isn't a long term success plan. All the other LCC players, Spirit, jetBlue, Frontier when they were 50ish planes all had growth plans that were significant to get themselves to a size large enough to be a key, important player. jetBlue became the largest non-legacy airline, Spirit became the largest ULCC carrier, and Frontier is joining the same rank soon. VX just kinda stayed in the back and didn't do much. Of course, we have AMR management and more or less they are 'yes sir!' type followers, not really leaders.

I hope we go to wherever we are sold to. If not, while that would be terrible, I'm a husband/father first and an airline pilot second. Still have muchos dineros en los
pantalones. I can always start over somewhere else, I won't be above anything / nothing as below me.
 
I've always thought it was inevitable. I haven't seen anything to suggest a long term plan here. In the past, it seemed the motto was get this place profitable, IPO it, and then sell/merge it on the market. In 2012 we deferred significant growth just to try and make a profit on the 50ish planes we had. I think the writing has been on the wall since that point. We turned a financial corner into the black (largely helped a lot by falling gas prices), successfully IPOed at the end of 2014 and have money since. But the idea of "growth" here is 5 planes per year which really isn't a long term success plan. All the other LCC players, Spirit, jetBlue, Frontier when they were 50ish planes all had growth plans that were significant to get themselves to a size large enough to be a key, important player. jetBlue became the largest non-legacy airline, Spirit became the largest ULCC carrier, and Frontier is joining the same rank soon. VX just kinda stayed in the back and didn't do much. Of course, we have AMR management and more or less they are 'yes sir!' type followers, not really leaders.

I hope we go to wherever we are sold to. If not, while that would be terrible, I'm a husband/father first and an airline pilot second. Still have muchos dineros en los
pantalones. I can always start over somewhere else, I won't be above anything / nothing as below me.

The key difference between VA and JBLU/SAVE/F9 in their initial growth phases was that the latter three all earned the right to grow from the onset - the models were immediately successful. JBLU was profitable as a startup in the early 2000's, while nearly the entire domestic industry was in the red. This allowed them to justify continued growth. SAVE and F9 have been wildly profitable since they were transformed into ULCC's, allowing them to justify further growth. You will note that JBLU, around 2013 or 2014, was struggling vs. the rest of the industry (though still profitable, I might add), and they too were forced to pare back the growth via orderbook deferrals - in theory, for every dollar that was invested in the company (via equity or debt), the company was generating returns that were lower than even the S&P500 index, meaning they were destroying value (at least, academically). Southwest went through a similar phase a few years ago (they wouldn't grow the fleet until they reached 15% ROIC), and if the SAVE saga from last year continues (generating lower returns on higher growth), they will get significant pressure on their growth plans.

VA, on the other hand, was not profitable until gas prices dropped in late 2014, and until that point was costing their owners a significant amount of money (before gas fell, why put money in an airline that generates no returns and looked like it wouldn't for the foreseeable future, when you could just park that money in the S&P500 index or even a US Treasury note?). The way to fix that is to slow the growth, generate profits on your existing assets, and then to start growing again, on more sound footing.

Scale is a a huge component of this business, but more often than not I think it's a misused buzz word -- carriers have to earn and continue earning to get scale - nobody will give a carrier a pass on earnings to reach a supposed critical mass 5-10 years down the line, when an infinite number of assumptions/scenarios could unfold and change the original outlook.
 
The key difference between VA and JBLU/SAVE/F9 in their initial growth phases was that the latter three all earned the right to grow from the onset - the models were immediately successful. JBLU was profitable as a startup in the early 2000's, while nearly the entire domestic industry was in the red. This allowed them to justify continued growth. SAVE and F9 have been wildly profitable since they were transformed into ULCC's, allowing them to justify further growth. You will note that JBLU, around 2013 or 2014, was struggling vs. the rest of the industry (though still profitable, I might add), and they too were forced to pare back the growth via orderbook deferrals - in theory, for every dollar that was invested in the company (via equity or debt), the company was generating returns that were lower than even the S&P500 index, meaning they were destroying value (at least, academically). Southwest went through a similar phase a few years ago (they wouldn't grow the fleet until they reached 15% ROIC), and if the SAVE saga from last year continues (generating lower returns on higher growth), they will get significant pressure on their growth plans.

VA, on the other hand, was not profitable until gas prices dropped in late 2014, and until that point was costing their owners a significant amount of money (before gas fell, why put money in an airline that generates no returns and looked like it wouldn't for the foreseeable future, when you could just park that money in the S&P500 index or even a US Treasury note?). The way to fix that is to slow the growth, generate profits on your existing assets, and then to start growing again, on more sound footing.

Scale is a a huge component of this business, but more often than not I think it's a misused buzz word -- carriers have to earn and continue earning to get scale - nobody will give a carrier a pass on earnings to reach a supposed critical mass 5-10 years down the line, when an infinite number of assumptions/scenarios could unfold and change the original outlook.

Pilot turned Wall Street analyst eh?

Virgin America started flying Aug 2007. Just months later we were hit with the worst recession since the Great Depression. So of the 8 full years of existence, years 2008-2012 stung a lot. Less than 12 months after starting up, oil shot up to $150 /barrel. No other airline start up faced such dire circumstances. jetBlue started in a different environment, and directly gained benefit after 9/11's legacy cutting. They shrunk down and jetBlue grew. The airline environment before 2008 was a lot different than it was after 2008's recession and the ensuing mergers that gave just 3 legacy airlines plus SWA. The bottom line is the only other startups at the time, like Skybus, failed relatively quickly.

SAVE had a huge loss in stock value from the 80s down to the 30s, and their CEO was put on the chopping block. There's now someone new at the helm. NK and F9 are also heading down a similar merger/buyout path.
 
Scale is a a huge component of this business, but more often than not I think it's a misused buzz word -- carriers have to earn and continue earning to get scale - nobody will give a carrier a pass on earnings to reach a supposed critical mass 5-10 years down the line, when an infinite number of assumptions/scenarios could unfold and change the original outlook.

The scale though that the big 3 enjoy come via failures and then mergers right? Of course at some point they had to grow, but ultimately the largest % of their growth came through merging. SWA not included...They've grown and succeeded picking up smaller carriers along the way.
 
What would SWA want? Slots?

Planes don't fit their fleet model.....
AirTran had 88 717's

I could see SWA, with how they want to grow their slots and presence in major markets. LAX, a DFW coup, etc. SWA is a powerhouse, they will continue to put immense pressure on the legacies.
 
AirTran had 88 717's

I could see SWA, with how they want to grow their slots and presence in major markets. LAX, a DFW coup, etc. SWA is a powerhouse, they will continue to put immense pressure on the legacies.

I can kinda see that. They'd get Love field 2 additional gates, Hawaii operations, footing in JFK/LGA/EWR and take part in the profitable transcon market.

But again, the fleet difference.

You are right Airtran had 88 717s, but Southwest gave them ALL away to Delta, and maintained their true 737-only model.
 
I can kinda see that. They'd get Love field 2 additional gates, Hawaii operations, footing in JFK/LGA/EWR and take part in the profitable transcon market.

But again, the fleet difference.

You are right Airtran had 88 717s, but Southwest gave them ALL away to Delta, and maintained their true 737-only model.
There is a lot more flexibility with the A320 as opposed to the 717. Not saying it is going to happen, but I think it is conceivable that Southwest would be willing to add the Airbus to the fleet per a merger if there are enough benefits to justify it.
 
There is a lot more flexibility with the A320 as opposed to the 717. Not saying it is going to happen, but I think it is conceivable that Southwest would be willing to add the Airbus to the fleet per a merger if there are enough benefits to justify it.
Impacts their Pilot, MX, training and spares costs though and for a small amount of planes.

I could see them scooping up the slots and selling off the fleet, but not if they have to pay a premium for the A/C involved.
 
Impacts their Pilot, MX, training and spares costs though and for a small amount of planes.

I could see them scooping up the slots and selling off the fleet, but not if they have to pay a premium for the A/C involved.
If the Airbus fleet reaches a certain size, the added costs of a separate fleet is not as critical as one would believe. What that size is, I have no idea. That would be up to the bean counters at Southwest. I think it is a possibility, although I wouldn't consider it a probability.
 
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