Are we on the precipice of another lost decade?

[tcco94]

Just because it’s Wall Street doesn’t mean they know either.

Forget that I’m a pilot. I’m just telling you, as a person, that we are in for a hurting for 2024.

I didn’t say I know? You on the other hand replied to my comment about how pilots love predicting recessions with your prediction of the recession as and I quote “it doesn’t take a genius to figure out”. That’s literally what everyone said in 2021 and 2022.

Well, thanks for your opinion! Point proven. My work here is done.

 

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

I didn’t say I know? You on the other hand replied to my comment about how pilots love predicting recessions with your prediction of the recession as and I quote “it doesn’t take a genius to figure out”. That’s literally what everyone said in 2021 and 2022.

Well, thanks for your opinion! Point proven. My work here is done.

2021 and 2022 would have been recessions. Your government printed trillions with a T. That’s how we avoided it.

Time to pay the piper now.

 

[tcco94]

2021 and 2022 would have been recessions. Your government printed trillions with a T. That’s how we avoided it.

Time to pay the piper now.

 

[BEEF SUPREME]

Just because it’s Wall Street doesn’t mean they know either.

Forget that I’m a pilot. I’m just telling you, as a person, that we are in for a hurting for 2024.

Yeah but you were saying that in the autumn of 2022. A year and a half window is a pretty long time to make a prediction no?


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[Cherokee_Cruiser]

Yeah but you were saying that in the autumn of 2022. A year and a half window is a pretty long time to make a prediction no?


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It’s the economy. I don’t think I said just 2023. The window for recession was 2023-2024. IIRC, I said if we can get through end of 2024 as is, then we might be okay with no recession.

 

[derg]

UUUGHH!!

I don't consider Flight Ops management here to be very bloated, but for reasons I cannot quite put my finger on things move SO SLOWLY. The line thinks they're not being listened to, but in reality HQ hears them loud and clear (usually). It's just that to make any little change takes FOREVER.

I'm very accustomed to working in a bureaucracy, but this is something else and I'm trying to put my finger on it because it doesn't seem like it has to be this way.

Well, lets put it more simply.

Ever go to a Starbucks where there’s one person taking orders and another making coffee, it may be slow but it’s efficient. Add another person behind the counter, things are efficient and run a little faster. Add a third barista and efficiency goes down because, after all, SOMEONE is certainly working on that order that’s been in for the last five minutes. Add a fourth barista, it splits off into two different conversation circles and people are more interested in who Sally is dating or if they saw the latest TIkTok video.

The problem with more people is empire-building. People divide into tribes and if it wasn’t your tribes idea, the idea dies on the vine. Plus things that can get handled with a quick text or phone call becomes an executive summary, calling a MS Teams meeting to figure out what days everyone is ‘green on’ to have an actual in-person meeting, and then what could have been crafted and launched in a day literally takes a year, if it’s not outright smothered because it wasn’t the right person’s idea.

I have a better actual example, something I’ve been dealing with, but it’s not for the internet.

 

[CFIscare]

Well, lets put it more simply.

Ever go to a Starbucks where there’s one person taking orders and another making coffee, it may be slow but it’s efficient. Add another person behind the counter, things are efficient and run a little faster. Add a third barista and efficiency goes down because, after all, SOMEONE is certainly working on that order that’s been in for the last five minutes. Add a fourth barista, it splits off into two different conversation circles and people are more interested in who Sally is dating or if they saw the latest TIkTok video.

Any chance we can get that fourth barista to run a dedicated black coffee line?

 

[Autothrust Blue]

The problem with more people is empire-building. People divide into tribes and if it wasn’t your tribes idea, the idea dies on the vine. Plus things that can get handled with a quick text or phone call becomes an executive summary, calling a MS Teams meeting to figure out what days everyone is ‘green on’ to have an actual in-person meeting, and then what could have been crafted and launched in a day literally takes a year, if it’s not outright smothered because it wasn’t the right person’s idea.

Not-invented-here is a real problem in aviation.

 

[tcco94]

Have you ever seen a day in the life video from a tech employee? Most of them are quite shocking at how many useless positions are involved in the tech industry. I can only imagine how many other industries get caught up hiring the same positions and being told we need this new tech star for our sustainability in the digital world!!!

 

[JordanD]

Have you ever seen a day in the life video from a tech employee? Most of them are quite shocking at how many useless positions are involved in the tech industry. I can only imagine how many other industries get caught up hiring the same positions and being told we need this new tech star for our sustainability in the digital world!!!

Are you implying we don’t need base touchers? But who is going to do the circling back?

 

[Roger Roger]

Have you ever seen a day in the life video from a tech employee? Most of them are quite shocking at how many useless positions are involved in the tech industry. I can only imagine how many other industries get caught up hiring the same positions and being told we need this new tech star for our sustainability in the digital world!!!

Useless positions? Shoot we got whole industries that aren’t just useless but actively detrimental to society.

 

[tcco94]

Useless positions? Shoot we got whole industries that aren’t just useless but actively detrimental to society.

Can’t argue with that one. Sad as it is to say.

 

[derg]

Any chance we can get that fourth barista to run a dedicated black coffee line?

My man! Oh, wait.

 

[derg]

It’s the economy. I don’t think I said just 2023. The window for recession was 2023-2024. IIRC, I said if we can get through end of 2024 as is, then we might be okay with no recession.

Full planes, full restaurant, full cruise ships, full lines at Target and cars are still selling with “Market Condition” markups.

This recesssion is terrible!

 

[Flyinthrew]

Full planes, full restaurant, full cruise ships, full lines at Target and cars are still selling with “Market Condition” markups.

This recesssion is terrible!

Not to mention, and I personally don’t like it, the 30 year fixed rate mortgage interest rate is sitting rate at its 50 year average.

 

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

Full planes, full restaurant, full cruise ships, full lines at Target and cars are still selling with “Market Condition” markups.

This recesssion is terrible!

Full planes in context, with decreasing yields. Restaurants and cruise ships, yes Americans love their obesity and unnecessary spending.

Cars? Depending on the model. A lot of it has calmed down (still not pre-pandemic normal).

Every recession was preceded by a boom so I’m not sure if these items are reflective. It’s also gonna be an election year, so it’s hard to imagine a govt allowing things to get rough. If so, Biden’s toast.

We can revisit this Dec 2024 and see where we’re at.

 

[tcco94]

Full planes, full restaurant, full cruise ships, full lines at Target and cars are still selling with “Market Condition” markups.

This recesssion is terrible!

Full lines at target again? God I could only hope. I have had to dollar cost average my position like crazy after I one day got in the crosshairs of the alt-right

 

[derg]

I made the mistake of attempting to eat out on a Friday night in Seattle without a reservation. Forget it.

 

[bike21]

I'd stop hoovering up the news…

 

[Maurus]

People have been crying out about a recession for well over a year now. I won't say it isn't going to happen but the predictions have been pretty bad so far.

You know people are speaking out of their ass when they start citing random statistics that fall into correlation/causation fallacy land. "We haven't seen X cash levels since the great depression!"