Are we on the precipice of another lost decade?

turbojet28 said:
I’m at an interesting spot in my career with about 30 years left, currently as a top 35% pilot at a ULCC, but with a CJO in hand from a legacy airline. Its been excruciating lately trying to make some tough long-term decisions, so it can be safely said that my mind has been at almost full capacity with this very same question lately.
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Go and dont look back, 30 years is a long time. Do you live in base?
 
Skåning said:
Go and dont look back, 30 years is a long time. Do you live in base?
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I am a long-distance local to a domicile that my ULCC closed and is a large base for said legacy. I’d be going from commuting for day trips (at a base that didn’t exist when I was hired) back to a semi-long drive to a fortress hub domicile.

It probably seems like a very easy choice from the outside, but Stockholm Syndrome is a real thing. Coupled with the fact that my 3 kids are just entering their “prime kid years”, it’s not as easy of a choice as I maybe thought, especially as someone who first entered the industry very young, right at the start of 2008. I remember those times well, and the topic of this thread seems more relevant than ever to me.
 
ZapBrannigan said:
Delta announced headquarters layoffs. Seems like an early indicator of cost cutting that may impact front line employees next.
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www.cnbc.com

Delta lays off some corporate workers to cut costs

Delta Air Lines is cutting some corporate jobs in an effort to reduce costs as the industry grapples with higher expenses such as for fuel and labor.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com

Maybe, but they’re pretty explicitly not touching the frontline thus far.

Executives recently reported strong travel demand helping it more than cover costs. Delta posted a third-quarter profit of $1.1 billion, up nearly 60% from a year earlier, but had warned higher costs had reduced its bottom line.

"Growth is normalizing next year, and we expect operational reliability to continue to improve," CFO Dan Janki said on an earnings call last month. "This will allow us to optimize how we run the airline, reducing operational buffers and driving out inefficiencies that have resulted from the intensity of the rebuild.”

…
Airlines have more recently ramped up capacity, while demand has moderated, leading to lower airfare compared with last year. Some carriers, including Southwest, are now looking at slowing their capacity growth as bookings return to more traditional patterns.
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turbojet28 said:
I am a long-distance local to a domicile that my ULCC closed and is a large base for said legacy. I’d be going from commuting for day trips (at a base that didn’t exist when I was hired) back to a semi-long drive to a fortress hub domicile.

It probably seems like a very easy choice from the outside, but Stockholm Syndrome is a real thing. Coupled with the fact that my 3 kids are just entering their “prime kid years”, it’s not as easy of a choice as I maybe thought, especially as someone who first entered the industry very young, right at the start of 2008. I remember those times well, and the topic of this thread seems more relevant than ever to me.
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Wishing you the best, whichever decision you make.
 
ZapBrannigan said:
Delta announced headquarters layoffs. Seems like an early indicator of cost cutting that may impact front line employees next.
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This is a bit of an overreaction. Trimming corporate fat is not a sign of front line employees in danger, and most of the time is better for business anyways.

Relax. Get some fresh air. No sense in worrying about something out of your control and playing 20 scenarios of how the economy can unfold in the next 5 months to 5 years. Even the most perma-bears of the last 12-18 months are even starting to retreat.

And what is the obsession to compare everything in this industry to the past? The industry today vs 2000 isn’t even remotely the same in terms of pilots, # of airlines, travel demand and societal changes to travel. I don’t think it hit the big red panic button. Maybe some airlines will struggle, but the broader industry is facing the front of an unprecedented crisis of lack of people. Not too many people.
 
tcco94 said:
This is a bit of an overreaction. Trimming corporate fat is not a sign of front line employees in danger, and most of the time is better for business anyways.

Relax. Get some fresh air. No sense in worrying about something out of your control and playing 20 scenarios of how the economy can unfold in the next 5 months to 5 years. Even the most perma-bears of the last 12-18 months are even starting to retreat.

And what is the obsession to compare everything in this industry to the past? The industry today vs 2000 isn’t even remotely the same in terms of pilots, # of airlines, travel demand and societal changes to travel. I don’t think it hit the big red panic button. Maybe some airlines will struggle, but the broader industry is facing the front of an unprecedented crisis of lack of people. Not too many people.
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Spirit and Frontier have both suspended hiring. JetBlue losing money.

History may not repeat itself, but it often rhymes.
 
ZapBrannigan said:
Spirit and Frontier have both suspended hiring. JetBlue losing money.

History may not repeat itself, but it often rhymes.
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Right and some of that is not due to a broader industry worry. The context matters obviously. Like I said not every airline and company is going to flourish. But ULCC’s lacking business models, demand declining for their products, and airplane issues forcing massive planes parked is not a broad view of the industry.

Obviously there will be ups and downs for every company, but I am lost at how you drew the conclusion of this news to a lost decade. That is quite the overreaction.
 
Not accusing OP of it because I think it's a level-headed thought but what is it with people's doom fetish? I've been hearing about the "career ending recession" since I got into the airlines I feel like. I guess if you keep saying it eventually you can go "see?! I was right!"
 
JordanD said:
Not accusing OP of it because I think it's a level-headed thought but what is it with people's doom fetish? I've been hearing about the "career ending recession" since I got into the airlines I feel like. I guess if you keep saying it eventually you can go "see?! I was right!"
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I think some of it is a related to predominant sociopolitical beliefs, and some to the personalities. After all we’re always training to prepare for the worst, and we’re always reading accident reports etc that teach us about small mistakes or symptoms that are precursors to catastrophic accidents.
 
JordanD said:
Not accusing OP of it because I think it's a level-headed thought but what is it with people's doom fetish? I've been hearing about the "career ending recession" since I got into the airlines I feel like. I guess if you keep saying it eventually you can go "see?! I was right!"
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Roger Roger said:
I think some of it is a related to predominant sociopolitical beliefs, and some to the personalities. After all we’re always training to prepare for the worst, and we’re always reading accident reports etc that teach us about small mistakes or symptoms that are precursors to catastrophic accidents.
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Agreed about the doom fetish crap, but in this case, @ZapBrannigan has been through the wringer and back during his career so I totally get it.
 
I think this time of year is pretty doom and gloom for investments. During the autumn everyone seems to freak out. I remember it vividly last year because it was the main argument to vote yes on the labor contract where I work.


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