Are we on the precipice of another lost decade?

[BEEF SUPREME]

People have been crying out about a recession for well over a year now. I won't say it isn't going to happen but the predictions have been pretty bad so far.

You know people are speaking out of their ass when they start citing random statistics that fall into correlation/causation fallacy land. "We haven't seen X cash levels since the great depression!"

I haven't seen these fear porn levels since the last contract negotiation!!!

 

[Boris Badenov]

The debt is at or approaching wartime levels, that's not a myth or an "opinion". Whether the US can continue a fiscal policy that would immediately relegate any other nation to junk-bond status for another cycle or two remains to be seen, but the train is definitely headed for the blown-up bridge, and I don't think we could stop it now, even if we tried. Which we won't.

The wildcard is, of course, that US bonds/currency are regarded as "safety". As long as the dollar remains the world's reserve currency, the rules are kind of out the window. But the cracks are already showing, as developing nations increasingly look to China for a more, uh, let's call it "pragmatic" approach to global economics.

This isn't wild-eyed, spittle-flecked conservative lunacy, The Economist has been feteing this notion in much more diplomatic terms for at least a couple of years, now.

 

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

I haven't seen these fear porn levels since the last contract negotiation!!!

I haven’t seen pilots get off on other pilots calling out a potential recession since, the last time pilots got off on other pilots calling out a potential recession!

 

[Lawman]

The debt is at or approaching wartime levels, that's not a myth or an "opinion". Whether the US can continue a fiscal policy that would immediately relegate any other nation to junk-bond status for another cycle or two remains to be seen, but the train is definitely headed for the blown-up bridge, and I don't think we could stop it now, even if we tried. Which we won't.

The wildcard is, of course, that US bonds/currency are regarded as "safety". As long as the dollar remains the world's reserve currency, the rules are kind of out the window. But the cracks are already showing, as developing nations increasingly look to China for a more, uh, let's call it "pragmatic" approach to global economics.

This isn't wild-eyed, spittle-flecked conservative lunacy, The Economist has been feteing this notion in much more diplomatic terms for at least a couple of years, now.

The prevailing opinion on what to do seems to be based off some secret Illuminati white paper where they predict global collapse before US collapse.

Essentially when the demographics and economic fractures begin in Asia and Europe they will occur before we run out of debt to throw at our problem and effectively we will all become insolvent. That’s ok though because the US and by extension the dollar remains the most solvent of the insolvent and therefor nothing changes except where we put the decimal point.


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[BEEF SUPREME]

I haven’t seen pilots get off on other pilots calling out a potential recession since, the last time pilots got off on other pilots calling out a potential recession!

The only thing more predictable is you taking what I post personally


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[Cherokee_Cruiser]

The only thing more predictable is you taking what I post personally


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And the only thing more predictable than that is you making things about yourself, as usual

 

[mikecweb]

 

[Flyinthrew]

Well, lets put it more simply.

Ever go to a Starbucks where there’s one person taking orders and another making coffee, it may be slow but it’s efficient. Add another person behind the counter, things are efficient and run a little faster. Add a third barista and efficiency goes down because, after all, SOMEONE is certainly working on that order that’s been in for the last five minutes. Add a fourth barista, it splits off into two different conversation circles and people are more interested in who Sally is dating or if they saw the latest TIkTok video.

The problem with more people is empire-building. People divide into tribes and if it wasn’t your tribes idea, the idea dies on the vine. Plus things that can get handled with a quick text or phone call becomes an executive summary, calling a MS Teams meeting to figure out what days everyone is ‘green on’ to have an actual in-person meeting, and then what could have been crafted and launched in a day literally takes a year, if it’s not outright smothered because it wasn’t the right person’s idea.

I have a better actual example, something I’ve been dealing with, but it’s not for the internet.

Appropriate to our conversation…there were cuts this week on The Cuatro. Check your people.

 

[phill1174]

I made the mistake of attempting to eat out on a Friday night in Seattle without a reservation. Forget it.

It’s the people living off that $600 stimmy check they got 2yrs ago

 

[derg]

It’s the people living off that $600 stimmy check they got 2yrs ago

THAR GETTUN PAID TA STAY HOME!!1one!

 

[///AMG]

I made the mistake of attempting to eat out on a Friday night in Seattle without a reservation. Forget it.

haha I mean, this isn't PHX up here......we have some standards

 

[Autothrust Blue]

The debt is at or approaching wartime levels, that's not a myth or an "opinion". Whether the US can continue a fiscal policy that would immediately relegate any other nation to junk-bond status for another cycle or two remains to be seen, but the train is definitely headed for the blown-up bridge, and I don't think we could stop it now, even if we tried. Which we won't.

Well, thank God there are actual fiscal conservatives in Cong...I couldn't get that out, I started laughing 2/3rds of the way through.