Just about every regional out there right now has the same problem. Wayyyy more FOs than CAs. Hiring more FOs right now just chokes up the training department, then those new FOs can't fly very much because there aren't enough CAs. So those FOs take longer to reach 1000 SIC so they can upgrade, or they get a few hundred hours and are hireable at a higher airline that is also getting kinda desperate for pilots. Most FOs have no intention of waiting to flow in this environment.
Right now PSA (like any other regional that is currently imbalanced), if they are still hiring FOs, then they are spending all that money training those FOs who hardly ever fly in their first year. Many of those FOs are getting frustrated (their words) from the lack of flight time, and a lot of them leave for another airline. So as it is happening now, PSA or amy other regional is just wasting a bunch of money giving each surplus FO a couple hundred hours of 121 time building to future LCC FOs over that first year or so until they leave. And paying them a full 75 hour min guarantee each month while each reserve FO flies 20 hours or less a month. The company is not getting enough flying out of the extra FOs versus the cost of having so many in surplus.
Given the attrition and resulting CA/FO imbalance at the regional level (any regional right now), plotting a flow date for a given person is pretty pointless if it's more than about a year out. Anyone past a year, from what I saw, most are on the "don't wait for flow, try to go to an AA competitor" plan.
The attrition and CA/FO imbalance is going to lead to more massive changes in the regional industry sooner than later. What will that look like? I don't know, but the massive pay thing can only go so far because it gets to a ridiculous $ amount if there is a next round of raises. I expect a bankruptcy or two and some version of mergers or the mythical staple sort of solution to be highly likely. AA in particular needs the WO planes as well as the pilots. They can't just get a suitable number of A320s and 737s fast enough from maxed out production lines if the CRJs and E175s get parked too fast for lack of regional CAs.
