Another lost decade?

[Wonderlic]

Many are convinced on the pilot side that we’ve just entered another “lost decade”. After 9/11 there was little career advancement, little gain in seniority, no significant pay raises, etc.

Anyone see that happening for dispatch? I know airlines are a million times better positioned now than they were in 2001 but this situation is a billion times worse.

 

[jynxyjoe]

Many are convinced on the pilot side that we’ve just entered another “lost decade”. After 9/11 there was little career advancement, little gain in seniority, no significant pay raises, etc.

Anyone see that happening? I know airlines are a million times better positioned now than they were in 2001 but this situation is a billion times worse.

We'll know in a year or less

 

[757Geek]

I personally don’t think it will. There is still a very large percentage of pilots who will be turning 65 and retiring that you didn’t have after 9/11. Another factor that you have is the 1500 hours rule that also didn’t exist after 9/11. Combine both of those and I think there will still be a pilot shortage, this just may delay the effects from being felt for another year or two.

The more likely scenario is I think “a lost decade” will be more felt on the dispatch side with people not retiring in order to build up lost savings from this, and if the airlines shrink a little then hiring will dwindle to almost nothing.

 

[Bobber]

The more likely scenario is I think “a lost decade” will be more felt on the dispatch side with people not retiring in order to build up lost savings from this, and if the airlines shrink a little then hiring will dwindle to almost nothing.

I have to agree, I think the pilots will be fine. A lot of airlines will offer early retirement and such for pilots that would be close to retirement anyways. As things (hopefully) start to recover they will be able to hire new pilots that would be cheaper than keeping senior pilots. There are massive flow through programs and pilot pools that they can get more pilots from. Pilots will always be in demand with attractive pay. I don't think the same can be said for dispatchers.

On the operations side I think 757 hit the nail on the head, it may work in a similar way where some folks will take retirement, but dispatch is a relatively small field. I think most people will stick around longer and people wont move from regionals to majors as quickly. I was looking at a 5 year plan to go from my cargo shop to a regional to a major and thats looking more like 10 years now. I am fortunate I didn't get offered any gigs at regionals earlier this year because it is tough for them but it looks like Ill be at my current gig for a while. (Atleast I can get vested! Silver linings ya'll)

This is of course just my opinion and we should have a better outlook about a year after everything calms down. Good luck to everyone and don't be afraid to reach out for help or ask. Love my dispatch family on here <3

 

[ZapBrannigan]

Raising the retirement age while thousands of pilots were still on furlough was the biggest contributor to the lost decade. No chance of that happening now (I hope)


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[Wonderlic]

I personally don’t think it will. There is still a very large percentage of pilots who will be turning 65 and retiring that you didn’t have after 9/11. Another factor that you have is the 1500 hours rule that also didn’t exist after 9/11. Combine both of those and I think there will still be a pilot shortage, this just may delay the effects from being felt for another year or two.

The more likely scenario is I think “a lost decade” will be more felt on the dispatch side with people not retiring in order to build up lost savings from this, and if the airlines shrink a little then hiring will dwindle to almost nothing.

I think you’re right on both accounts. I should have clarified in my initial post that I’m more wondering about how the dispatch side will fare the next several years if this all plays out the way everyone is thinking it will. Us at the regionals have a long few years ahead.

 

[paincorp]

The only silver lining for dispatch as I see it, will be the retirements and potential buy outs that I'm hearing about.

I think someone posted UA already had some retirements, and I'd imagine AA will see some, since a member here said "we'll retire to keep our kids from being furloughed" which most likely means October.

Hopefully buy outs help accelerate that, but that's just me trying to be optimistic.

 

[TJ94]

The only silver lining for dispatch as I see it, will be the retirements and potential buy outs that I'm hearing about.

I think someone posted UA already had some retirements, and I'd imagine AA will see some, since a member here said "we'll retire to keep our kids from being furloughed" which most likely means October.

Hopefully buy outs help accelerate that, but that's just me trying to be optimistic.

DL might be putting out a package later this month. All depends on the details of the package obviously, but I heard a few years ago that 30+ people would've been interested in a package had it been an option at that time. They were rumored to be looking for 10-12 from the February posting which was cancelled due to the hiring freeze (initially they were interviewing anyway but since all positions company-wide were scratched).

It all depends on how soon the rebound happens, and what (the potential) early out packages at the majors entail. I think it's too early to say that the decade is "lost".

 

[Bobber]

I did get this picture posted in a pilot work chat

 

[z987k]

Raising the retirement age while thousands of pilots were still on furlough was the biggest contributor to the lost decade. No chance of that happening now (I hope)


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I wouldn't hold that much hope. A bunch of guys with 3 ex wives 6 houses, 2 airplanes and 4 boats are going to start raising holy hell to their union about not having enough money to retire because of covid 19. They'll be asking for age 67 or 70 to make up for it. Never mind they hardly know what their name is on a given day, let alone fly an airplane.

 

[jetn672003]

I wouldn't hold that much hope. A bunch of guys with 3 ex wives 6 houses, 2 airplanes and 4 boats are going to start raising holy hell to their union about not having enough money to retire because of covid 19. They'll be asking for age 67 or 70 to make up for it. Never mind they hardly know what their name is on a given day, let alone fly an airplane.

I see it happening ..911 all over again ..They kept ticket prices cheap so people would start flying again ..Seats were full and the airlines went bankrupt ..Pensions went away and the raised the retirement age to 65..Were going down the same exact road


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[Green12324]

Pensions went away and the raised the retirement age to 65..Were going down the exact same road

That's ok, this is the aviation industry and we're dispatchers not pilots, so I was planning to work until I die anyway!

At least the people who have gotten into the industry since 9/11 have never counted on a pension, so we're a little better off than those guys were as far as retirement expectations/planning.

 

[Mainline_or_bust]

That's ok, this is the aviation industry and we're dispatchers not pilots, so I was planning to work until I die anyway!

At least the people who have gotten into the industry since 9/11 have never counted on a pension, so we're a little better off than those guys were as far as retirement expectations/planning.

Some of us still have them**