WSJ: Airline-Pilot Shortage Arrives Ahead of Schedule

[jgheggie]

5. All it takes is Congress to lessen licensing requirements for new flyers and bam, artificial "shortage" over. Believe me, there are industry lobbyists right now telling Congress that they need to reduce the 1500 hour rule, and this will only get worse once constituents start moaning and groaning as smaller cities continue to lose service over the next few years, see 4.

This

....the faa is ran by the airlines. That's where the faa gets most of its funding. When a part 91 or part 135 operator is issued an Air worthiness directive, they usually have to comply RIGHT AWAY! But it takes something really serious, and known by the public, for the faa to ground a 121 carriers aircraft.

If the airlines really feel like they cannot fill pilot slots "because of the 1500hr req" then they will put immense pressure on the faa and law makers to lower reqs or creat some creative ways to get young pilots qualified.

 

[Polar742]

You know this is the equivalent of rolling up to a small gold rush town with only a handful of sheriffs complaining about horse parking… and there's an extra badge sitting around the constables office…

You volunteering?

Sign me up....

 

[MikeD]

Another angle is that the airline business is an old diner, with lots of duct tape and too little help.

Once upon a time, that diner was the "place to be seen" where the movers and shakers would drop in for three martini power lunches, working out multi-million dollar deals, the food was solid and people knew that they would have a good experience.

Now that downtown diner is run down, full of duct tape holding relics from a bygone era together and instead of the captains of industry coming in for three martini lunches, it's a room full of people dropping in for the "buy one chili, get one chili free, free fries for the kids if you buy a soft drink" crowd.

The diner needs help and says there is a labor shortage.

Well, the problem is that no one lives downtown any more. People, and the cities heart have moved out to the suburbs and very few think it's worth commuting 20 miles, in traffic, to come serve at a run down diner to hope one of those "value diners" leaves a gratuity on the broken down formica tables.

Once they clean the place up, modernize, start cranking out quality meals with appropriate pricing and attracting experienced waitstaff because of an attractive benefits package, they'll never have to worry about staffing issues again.

It all starts with leadership, but any staffing issues the airlines are having falls solely in the lap of the Airline Transport Association/Airlines For America/Regional Airline Association, certain provisions of the Railway Labor Act and, well, labor in the last decade for serving as "enablers" in some circles. And, of course…. "Us".

I'm hungry. I'm going to go forage in the refrigerator.

Remember the first day at PRC in orientation when the head of the Flight Department.....Carroll was it?......came on stage to open up orientation with "...good morning everyone. Did you know that a UAL 747 international Captain makes more than $300k a year? That could be you and you begin your journey here. Welcome to ERAU......"

 

[Firebird2XC]

A Captain I know at Eagle says that three of the First Officers she's flown with lately have been cold-called by other regionals trying to entice them away.

No shortage? I think not.

 

[SeanD]

I think I have the solution for the shortage. The regionals need to relax their facial hair requirements. Let pilots grow beards and gigantic sideburns.

 

[JFlighttt]

The government shot themselves in the foot with this ATP reg.

How did they not forsee this occurring? I was thinking it would happen about a year from August but looks like it's getting bad quick. Guess that puts me in a good position tho.


As far as this ATP rule, I do have a question that I need to get clarified.

I had an interview at GL a week ago and the chief pilot interviewing me said that I could NOT get a restricted ATP at 21 because I do not have an aviation degree, even if I have the 1500 hours; is this true? I stand against that because if I were to have a 2 year aviation degree, I can get the RATP at 21 with 1250 total, or if I have a 4 year aviation degree, I can get the RATP at 1000 total. He is saying that since I don't have an aviation degree, I will NOT be eligible to get the RATP at 21 period, regardless I have all the flight time. He's saying I have to wait to age 23 to get the full blown ATP. Can someone clarify?

 

[Screaming_Emu]

The government shot themselves in the foot with this ATP reg.

How did they not forsee this occurring? I was thinking it would happen about a year from August but looks like it's getting bad quick. Guess that puts me in a good position tho.


As far as this ATP rule, I do have a question that I need to get clarified.

I had an interview at GL a week ago and the chief pilot interviewing me said that I could NOT get a restricted ATP at 21 because I do not have an aviation degree, even if I have the 1500 hours; is this true? I stand against that because if I were to have a 2 year aviation degree, I can get the RATP at 21 with 1250 total, or if I have a 4 year aviation degree, I can get the RATP at 1000 total. He is saying that since I don't have an aviation degree, I will NOT be eligible to get the RATP at 21 period, regardless I have all the flight time. He's saying I have to wait to age 23 to get the full blown ATP. Can someone clarify?

I think they did exactly what they intended. Making it harder to become an airline pilot will lead to more experienced, better compensated pilots.

I know at your current experience level it sucks, but it's not exactly an insurmountable goal. And I think by the time you get here, it will be a better place.

 

[jgheggie]

The government shot themselves in the foot with this ATP reg.

How did they not forsee this occurring? I was thinking it would happen about a year from August but looks like it's getting bad quick. Guess that puts me in a good position tho.


As far as this ATP rule, I do have a question that I need to get clarified.

I had an interview at GL a week ago and the chief pilot interviewing me said that I could NOT get a restricted ATP at 21 because I do not have an aviation degree, even if I have the 1500 hours; is this true? I stand against that because if I were to have a 2 year aviation degree, I can get the RATP at 21 with 1250 total, or if I have a 4 year aviation degree, I can get the RATP at 1000 total. He is saying that since I don't have an aviation degree, I will NOT be eligible to get the RATP at 21 period, regardless I have all the flight time. He's saying I have to wait to age 23 to get the full blown ATP. Can someone clarify?

You have to have a degree (or military) regardless of age 21-23 for a RATP. However, if you do have a degree then you CAN get a RATP at age 21.

Here's the requirements.

• At least 21 years old;
  
  
• Hold commercial pilot certificate with instrument rating;
  
  
• Successfully complete new ATP Certification Training Program prior to taking the ATP knowledge test (after July 31, 2014);
  
  
• Pass ATP knowledge and practical tests; and
  
  
• At least 750 hours total time as (military pilots); or
  
  
• At least 1,000 hours total time as pilot and a Bachelor’s
  degree with an aviation major; or
  
  
• At least 1,250 hours total time as pilot and an Associate’s degree with an aviation major; or
  
  
• 1,500 total time as a pilot.
  

 

[derg]

Remember the first day at PRC in orientation when the head of the Flight Department.....Carroll was it?......came on stage to open up orientation with "...good morning everyone. Did you know that a UAL 747 international Captain makes more than $300k a year? That could be you and you begin your journey here. Welcome to ERAU......"

Yup! At the mother trucking DLC.

 

[JFlighttt]

You have to have a degree (or military) regardless of age 21-23 for a RATP. However, if you do have a degree then you CAN get a RATP at age 21.

Here's the requirements.

• At least 21 years old;
  
  
• Hold commercial pilot certificate with instrument rating;
  
  
• Successfully complete new ATP Certification Training Program prior to taking the ATP knowledge test (after July 31, 2014);
  
  
• Pass ATP knowledge and practical tests; and
  
  
• At least 750 hours total time as (military pilots); or
  
  
• At least 1,000 hours total time as pilot and a Bachelor’s
  degree with an aviation major; or
  
  
• At least 1,250 hours total time as pilot and an Associate’s degree with an aviation major; or
  
  
• 1,500 total time as a pilot.

So looking at those requirements, I can get the RATP at the age of 21 if I have 1500 hours of flying as a pilot, regardless of my college, correct?

 

[juxtapilot]

So looking at those requirements, I can get the RATP at the age of 21 if I have 1500 hours of flying as a pilot, regardless of my college, correct?

You are correct.

 

[jgheggie]

So looking at those requirements, I can get the RATP at the age of 21 if I have 1500 hours of flying as a pilot, regardless of my college, correct?

Yes sir!

 

[derg]

A Captain I know at Eagle says that three of the First Officers she's flown with lately have been cold-called by other regionals trying to entice them away.

No shortage? I think not.

Here's an example. If the pay and benefits weren't a barrier to entry (read: higher and more) and the average regional pilot had a reasonable chance to move forward to the majors in a short amount of time, you'd pull all sorts of folks out of the woodwork into the profession.

Keep in mind, there are guys like @fly22, @drunkenbeagle and even @CLR4ILS that never entered the pilot labor pool that would dive in for the right numbers. Hell, if you could start at $80K in the regionals with decent working conditions and be confident that you'll be in the high $100's or early $200's in a few years at the majors (not unreasonable), hell, we could probably even get @MikeD fitted for a double-breasted coat and a hat.

 

[drunkenbeagle]

Here's an example. If the pay and benefits weren't a barrier to entry (read: higher and more) and the average regional pilot had a reasonable chance to move forward to the majors in a short amount of time, you'd pull all sorts of folks out of the woodwork into the profession.

Keep in mind, there are guys like @fly22, @drunkenbeagle and even @CLR4ILS that never entered the pilot labor pool that would dive in for the right numbers. Hell, if you could start at $80K in the regionals with decent working conditions and be confident that you'll be in the high $100's or early $200's in a few years at the majors (not unreasonable), hell, we could probably even get @MikeD fitted for a double-breasted coat and a hat.

Your analysis is precisely, absolutely, dead-on balls accurate.

But as long as I am schlepping through airports, and staying in crap hotels most would prefer to avoid, it is going to be for the highest bidder.

Second year six-figure pay? I know of a small army of well qualified folks that would quickly enter the workforce...

 

[derg]

Your analysis is precisely, absolutely, dead-on balls accurate.

But as long as I am schlepping through airports, and staying in crap hotels most would prefer to avoid, it is going to be for the highest bidder.

Second year six-figure pay? I know of a small army of well qualified folks that would quickly enter the workforce...

There is no shortage.

We need to get over that.

There are, however, a "shortage" of people willing to do the job for the current benefit structure.

I have a full schedule and an entire month free of any airline responsibility and had a pretty respectable W2 last year, but if I had to look forward to years of what I hear people bitching about in the regionals and only a scant chance of being where I am today, nah, I probably wouldn't do it.

The airline industry can fix this. But they have to put on their big boy pants and pay what it takes to put butts in seats.

 

[JFlighttt]

Yes sir!

Thank you both for the confirmation.

These regs are quite confusing and I tend to understand them for a bit and then comes along someone else that understood them differently and it screws with me. I was that close to calling OKC for confirmation.

 

[drunkenbeagle]

The airline industry can fix this. But they have to put on their big boy pants and pay what it takes to put butts in seats.

The airline industry isn't going to "fix" anything.

Pilots can fix things by not working at regional carriers that pay peanuts. The relative scarcity of ATP rated pilots won't be a hinderance to 135/91 operators - they will raise pay immediately when they have a seat to fill.

Once enough pilots have the backbone to say "seniority doesn't pay my mortgage," and find something else to do, contracts will suddenly be far more generous.

 

[derg]

I know.

But I'm trying to communicate that the idea that we're "out of pilots" is laughable.

They're out there, but it's not worth it with how the whole industry went into reverse.

 

[cardsfan05]

Regarding the "pilot shortage"...Lets say 5-10 years down the road.

What do you all predict the salaries to be? Will regional pay be any better?

...Just a thought, is there any chance there will no longer be regional carriers in the near future?

 

[jgheggie]

The airline industry isn't going to "fix" anything.

Pilots can fix things by not working at regional carriers that pay peanuts. The relative scarcity of ATP rated pilots won't be a hinderance to 135/91 operators - they will raise pay immediately when they have a seat to fill.

Once enough pilots have the backbone to say "seniority doesn't pay my mortgage," and find something else to do, contracts will suddenly be far more generous.

So if I don't take a job at a regional for "peanuts", then what do you suggest I do to "pay my mortgage"?? I'm not trying to raise any hairs on your neck....just trying to point out that if pilots were to suddenly walk away from the low paying regionals then where would they go? Unemployment line? Or start over in a whole different career field? This is what unions were supposed to accomplish right? These unions agreed to these wages. Pay will not increase simply because of a "shortage".

Many of you posting here have already said in other threads that there will always be a warm body willing to work for the low wage. So I completely disagree with those of you who say "there's only a shortage of people willing to fly for that low pay, not a shortage of pilots." There is a shortage of qualified applicants willing to work for the low pay....but guess what? There is a surplus of pilots willing to work for that wage once they meet the minimums. How do I know??? Because the hiring slots were filled for these same wages last year and years past when low time pilots could take the job.

Airlines will dictate the pay....always. If you want change...become a doctor! Or start putting more pressure on your "pilot union" to do their job and fight for you.

By the way....the people who vote on the union contracts are only made up of around 10% of 1st year FOs with low pay. So they are dust in the wind when lobbying for higher starting pay.