United's Confidential Business Plan Here

[yankee_one]

United\'s Confidential Business Plan Here

I saw this thread on flight info today. Though some of you might find this interesting.



I look at a lot of aviation sites on the internet, and came across United's "Confidential" business plan on this website. It's dated January 31 of this year.

United's "confidential" business plan

I have no idea how this got on the internet.

 

[Timbuff10]

Re: United\'s Confidential Business Plan Here

I saw this too the other day and skimmed through it. Then today i read in the Rocky Mtn news that they arent planning on implementing this LCC carrier stuff until the end of 2003.

United, Hello!?! Is management even trying to survive and dig themselves out of this hole they are in? I really dont get it. From what many people are thinking, UA will be out of money by the spring! Not next winter. I dont understand how they can not make changes soon yet they are talking about doing it next winter?

In my opinion, I think this whole attempt at launching a LCC called "starfish" is a huge smokescreen. They leaked this business plan to the public on purpose too. They know that the end is coming and if the public finds out then no one will book on them thus immediately killing UA. This way by leaking the business plan, talking about making changes in the winter, and starting a Low Cost Carrier by the end of the year, they are making the public think they will be around for a while and it is OK to book on them.

I would not be surprised at all if in the next few weeks i go to work one day and B concourse is shut down.

acutally a funny thing happened the other night. I was working our Frontier flight and we took one of United's gates for it since ours were all full and we had no gates left. well when the pax got off the flight they thought UA had finally went Chapter 7 and we were taking their gates on the concourse. Our gate agents kinda egged it on and said "we may be seeing a glimpse of the future".

It will be real interesting to see how DEN looks in a few weeks/months if the gorilla goes down. I am thinking CO will take most of the traffic though. I am sure AA, DL, and NW will grow here too.

 

[yankee_one]

Re: United\'s Confidential Business Plan Here

yeah.... I kinda felt the leak was done on purpose as well.

 

[Timbuff10]

Re: United\'s Confidential Business Plan Here

it would make sense... i mean what kind of bonehead company would let something as important as that out the door?

Here at Frontier we are having "something big" happening on March 14th and no one has a clue what it is? There are signs all over the place advertising it but no one knows because management keeps it a secret.

I hope its good! I have heard everything from we are merging with Jetblue to the A-318s are arriving... we shall see.

 

[aloft]

Re: United\'s Confidential Business Plan Here

United going down the tubes would be a very, VERY bad thing for all of us who ever dreamed of flying for a living. It'd put WAY too many ultra-qualified dudes on the street, not to mention what it'll do to the economy. I hope they pull it out of the nose-dive they're in, but I honestly don't have that kind of faith in anybody with an MBA.

Personally, I think we're headed for another Depression, but that's just the eternal pessimist in me--though the fact that we have a "president" with no economic vision, no foreign policy vision--hell, no vision at all, outside of getting Saddam, doesn't help matters. Oh yeah, he's one of those MBA types I mentioned above.

 

[A320_DUDE]

Re: United\'s Confidential Business Plan Here

[ QUOTE ]
United going down the tubes would be a very, VERY bad thing for all of us who ever dreamed of flying for a living. It'd put WAY too many ultra-qualified dudes on the street, not to mention what it'll do to the economy

[/ QUOTE ]

IMHO, I think United going Chap 7 would be best for the industry. Think about it,overnight 20% of the capacity would disappear. That would allow other airlines to moderately increase flights in key markets and start raising fare(in turn...start recalling furloughed employees). I don't wish to see anymore airline employees put on the street,but the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the one.....the other airlines will do their damndest to see UA go Chap 7. Sad but True

Also I don't think it will hinder any of us "next-generation" airline pilots. I asked that similar question to a SWA pilot,who's also my mentor. His opinion was that HR reps would rather hire a rookie pilot rather than a senior pilot furloughed from a major because a)the rookie pilot most likely needed the job...b)the rookie pilot most likely would'nt bring any resentment from his previous employer....c)the rookie pilot most likely had more years to give to the company. Now those are his opionions but you have to admit it makes alot of sense. Besides that alot of those UA guys turned around left jobs at AA,DL,NW,FDX,UPS and etc...for United. I don't think any of those airlines will seriously consider hiring those guys back after that. So I really don't think us "rookies" have much to worry about.

 

[jtrain609]

Re: United\'s Confidential Business Plan Here

Where do you get your information that a lot of United pilots left other majors to work at their current carrier?

737_Dude, I don't think you get the idea that if 5,000 guys that are all in their 30's flood the market if United goes under we're not getting jobs. They all have enough hours and experience to get hired at a major. Sure, the dudes that are over 50 are not going to get picked up by other majors but there are not a lot of those guys out there. Also think that those airplanes gotta go somewhere, and when they get bought up the crews might go with those guys. That's nothing more than a transfer of what we already have to lower pay.

The bottom line is that it would NOT be good. And while I'm ranting, how in the world can you think of undercutting other pilots like that? These are the guys here man. Do you really want to screw all of us out of the job so that you can work? Other people have kids, houses to pay for and car payments to make. No one deserves to go through what these United guys might have to go through, and not one of us should endorse the idea.

Just remember, it might be you in 20 years.

Cheers


John Herreshoff

 

[kansaspilot]

Re: United\'s Confidential Business Plan Here

With United and US airways both in chapter 11 its does seem a little discouraging for the industry. I think that this could be a much needed shot in the arm for the industry as a whole. If united does emerge from c 11 it will be a much leaner and more efficent airline. It makes me wonder how a airline can make money. I have been on flights with 20 people on board a 737, including the flight crew. How is a profit possible? I just think the airline mgmt would like to be flying big expensive aircraft, when the smaller more efficent aircraft are more prudent. Airlines do need to streamline their ops. Look at Southwest, even with a bad economy they are still making money. People are going to the no frills airlines. Why pay more on another airline when you get the same service. I just think things are going to have to change for this industry to survive. Those are my thoughts.....

 

[Timbuff10]

Re: United\'s Confidential Business Plan Here

737Dude, Im with you. Although it would really suck to be in a UA employee's position, The bottom line is that UA going CH7 would be better for this industry. People with MBAs may have a knack for being annoying in times like these but they got those MBAs by studying things like this and they pretty much all agree that less compitition in a already overcrowded market helps. And as hard as it may be to believe, that IS the bottom line.

One of the reasons why Frontier is having trouble making money is because we have to lower our prices so much to compete with UA who is under protection and can lower their prices to near rock bottom just so they can get more people on their planes. You watch, the day after UA closes their doors, F9 will raise their prices, just as every other airline, and we will be able to make a nice profit again and that will help our economy far more than UA going under would hurt it.

It does suck for many of these UA pilots if this happens but that is part of the business. Check out Eastern and Pan Am in the early 90s. After they bit the dust one of the biggest hiring booms in airline history occured. Every pilot knows this business is feast or famine. Ask Doug. Until the market for pilots is feast again these guys will have to get normal jobs. Thats why that college education is so important. Some of these guys will stay with the normal job thus opening doors for others, and some will come back when things pick up, again.

Tim

 

[braidkid]

Re: United\'s Confidential Business Plan Here

Aloft, I must correct you...
I hate to bring politics into the arena of discussion but I believe our president has the vision to bring
us out of the current economic situation. My guess is you would prefer a democratic president in office
who would spend more tax dollars helping Joe Blow with 3 babies and no job.
The war in Iraq is a necessary evil and is the ONE thing that will turn our economy around. Open your
history books and read that in every economic down turn in our history, war has turned it around.
Our society is afraid and as long as our society is afraid of some dumb ass terrorist living in a cave
our economy will continue to suck. We have waited too long to kick Suddam in the ass and the
longer we wait the more our economy will suffer.

 

[Timbuff10]

Re: United\'s Confidential Business Plan Here

I wanted to say what briadkid said but i just didnt want this discussion to take the politics heading.

what airlines need:

1 attack/remove saddam
2 get it over fast and get out
3 UA to go down
4 other airlines grow, raise prices, and finally make money
5 economy gets better without iraq problem
6 better economy = more people flying at healthier airlines = airlines and economy gets even better and at this point airlines start hiring again.

all this could happen within the year, or it could drag on for years to come?

 

[derg]

Re: United\'s Confidential Business Plan Here

Believe me, if UAL went under, it would be the death knell for many 'rookie' pilots.

If SWA wants to hire 100 pilots, they'd more than love to pick up type-rated UAL 737 pilots, or at least ones with extensive 737 time.

When JetBlue hired, they hired a lot of type-rated America West pilots that decided to jump ship.

If American hires to fill the void, they're going to be looking at experienced 757/767/777 pilots.

etc etc etc.

United going under will absolutely have a deleterious effect on the job market.

Big time.

Like when Delta purchased some remnants of Pan Am. We just didn't take the most senior pilots, we took 727 and A-310 pilots, the two aircraft type that we acquired from Pan Am. The 747 guys, in terms of getting hired at Delta, were sh*t out of luck.

 

[secretapproach]

Re: United\'s Confidential Business Plan Here

Nice word: deleterious. I had to go to dictionary.com to look that one up. And I bet that will be the only time in my life that I see "deleterious" one one line and "big time" in the next. Nice segue!

 

[kansaspilot]

Re: United\'s Confidential Business Plan Here

It would seem logical that if Ual went down, it would be very bad for rookie pilots. The other airlines would most likely hire the laid off pilots with the hours and type ratings for their particular aircraft needs. Kinda like buy the palne get the crew. If Ual did go down, I do not think the other carriers could respond fast enough to meet the new demands. However I may be wrong. I just do not think that Ual going down would actually help the other airlines. If they can streamline their ops there is no reason that they could come out of chap 11. They just basicly got to big for themselves to support, and the passengers to support.

 

[aloft]

Re: United\'s Confidential Business Plan Here

[ QUOTE ]
The war in Iraq is a necessary evil and is the ONE thing that will turn our economy around. Open your
history books and read that in every economic down turn in our history, war has turned it around.

[/ QUOTE ]
Except for oh, I dunno...the FIRST gulf war. You really think this one will be any different? The US economy is infinitely more complex now than in any period you allude to, and yes, the "welfare mom with 3 babies" is a bigger driver of GDP than the defense industry. The biggest economic oversight the GOP habitually makes is the fact that when you take away the bottom third's safety net, it stops spending--and nothing can compensate for this; not favorable tax policies for the rich, not incentives for investment, nothing. Restore the safety net, and people then feel like it's okay to spend a little of what little they've got--to take their kids to WalMart or Micky-D's or Toys R Us for a little shopping or even a little air travel. It's simply human nature, yet the GOP doesn't get it. Bubba Dubya doesn't, and neither do you, apparently.

 

[braidkid]

Re: United\'s Confidential Business Plan Here

[ QUOTE ]
Except for oh, I dunno...the FIRST gulf war.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I'm not mistaken, the economy experienced one of the biggest bull periods in the late 90's AFTER
the Gulf war???

 

[derg]

Re: United\'s Confidential Business Plan Here

Actually, the first gulf war did precede the bull market, but I think any economist would fervently debate if the war had anything to do with it.

More or less irrational exuberance from the dot.com/new economy/EBITDA-profits era.

UAL going under, in a macro sense, would actually help the other airlines, but at the great expense of anyone not already comfortably set in a seniority list of a relatively stable airline.

 

[A320_DUDE]

Re: United\'s Confidential Business Plan Here

[ QUOTE ]
Where do you get your information that a lot of United pilots left other majors to work at their current carrier?

[/ QUOTE ]

I have about 20 United pilots who deadhead to Denver on JB each week. We talk,we gossip,we trade info. It's called networking

[ QUOTE ]
737_Dude, I don't think you get the idea that if 5,000 guys that are all in their 30's flood the market if United goes under we're not getting jobs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Tell me....if you were a HR rep hiring for an airline, would you hire some bitter UA guys. I would'nt.....well maybe if I was desperate. These guys have made a name for themselves in the industry,and it's not a good one. I'm really not worried about getting a job at a major.....the ones that I'm considering look at your attitude along with flying skill.

[ QUOTE ]
The bottom line is that it would NOT be good. And while I'm ranting, how in the world can you think of undercutting other pilots like that? These are the guys here man. Do you really want to screw all of us out of the job so that you can work? Other people have kids, houses to pay for and car payments to make. No one deserves to go through what these United guys might have to go through, and not one of us should endorse the idea.

[/ QUOTE ]

John, It's survival of the fittest in the airline game! Nobody wants to face the facts here.....the United pilot group contributed to what we see now. Yes,UA mangement is inept but the pilots pulled one of the dumbest stunts I've ever seen....and it played out not only on the domestic scene, but international. Yes, they have children,houses to pay for,and car payments to make......but they weren't thinking about that when they were taxiing down taxiways at 2 mph....or calling MX for dirty windows...or calling in sick at the last minute. Payback is a b***h,and the UA pilots are finding that out now. You guys that are shedding tears for the United pilots really need to wake up.

[ QUOTE ]
Just remember, it might be you in 20 years.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hopefully not......I plan at working at airlines where all the employees relize that working with mangement to assure profits is better than "squeezing the golden goose for every last egg".

I've said it before and I'll say it again:If United Airlines ceases operation,it will be a good thing for the industry. Between United and USAir,they are bleeding the rest of us dry! Tim even said it....Frontier can't raise fares because UA has it's fares at uneconomic levels just to keep money in the coffers. This cannot continue to go on.....somebody has got to go,and unfortnatly if UA can't get their act together....it will be them!

 

[Timbuff10]

Re: United\'s Confidential Business Plan Here

Maybe we have the low cost carrier view on things when it comes to UA?

I do know this, UA going under helps the aviation industry in general.

There is just one too many airlines out there right now and until either more people are flying, or an airline drops out then the industry will suffer as it is now. As it looks right now with war looming the weakest will fall off. UA has been living the country club lifestyle too long and now it's catching up to them. If they survive this then great, the industry isnt in that bad of shape, if they dont, great, everone else will get healthier faster.

Yeah it sucks for "rookie pilots" to compete with a 757 type rated pilot but if the industry gets healthier faster by UA departing then in 2 years we could be booming again? If UA hangs around then who knows when the hiring boom happens again as no one can make money thus no one can hire new pilots.

 

[kansaspilot]

Re: United\'s Confidential Business Plan Here

Like I said before I may be wrong, and I may not know much about the industry, I just try to looks thing from a different perpestive. It may be a weird one but thats just me. It has been a long time since I had to look at an industry as a whole and decide if one key player will help or hinder by staying around. I hate to say this, but the worst thing that anyone can do is wish that alot of people to lose their jobs for your personal gains. So it would be easier for you to get a job. I don't think that any one of us would want to lose our jobs today. True they have some warning, and they know it might come to this but don't wish that on them. Sure, it is easier to say that they deserved it, but is it really the pilots or any other employees fault that mismanagement is a problem at UAL. Thats my opinion. I'll quit preaching now.