How long will this downturn last? Any predictions?

maniacmatt

maniacmatt

New Member
I've just been wondering to myself...how long will this stinking downturn last? Do any of you have any guesses?

I'm also wondering it it'll ever be back to like it was in the last 90's. Will 1200 hrs ever be the magic number again for regionals? What does the future look like to you guys?

Forgive me if this has been discussed already...but I couldn't find a thread on't.
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I have seen quite a few instructors being hired on at regionals even now with 1200 hours. I remember in the late 90's seeing guys getting hired on with 300 hours. (I think those times are gone for a while!)
 
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I remember in the late 90's seeing guys getting hired on with 300 hours. (I think those times are gone for a while!)

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Not quite, there's still a few through the Mesa Airlines Pilot Development program.
 
Who knows!

The market trails the economy so as long as the economy is in the dumper, aviation will be as well.

But once the economy perks up, it'll begin to reopen.

It's historically been a "lagging" trend with market performance.
 
Mesa is an expection, the new contract the pilots signed makes Mesa look less like an airline and more like some sort of third world sweat shop.....
 
Well, this stupid war against Iraq ain't helping things. Remember, the business traveler is the most profitable flyer and as long as the war lasts, business travel is going to be slow.
 
I think we will start to see the industry come back around in 2005. What do I base this on? Absolutely nothing but seems like a fair guess. I also think that the industry will be alot like we saw in the late 90s. The airlines don't learn from past mistakes and will probably rapidly hire until the economy takes a dip around 2010 when we will again see more furloughs. It seems like there is a recession in the first few years of each decade followed by rapid economic growth and the airline industry is very reliant on the strength of the overall economy.
 
Is it me or has anybody noticed that the airline industries tend to tank at the beginning of each decade?

The end of the 70's beginning of the 80's brought a downturn in the airline industry (as I understand it - could be wrong).

Then, there was the early 90's downturn where Eastern and TWA went away - the downturn that Doug often refers to.

Now, at the beginning of the 2000's - what's happening - yet again??

Wonder if there's any relevance to this? Any thoughts?
 
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Well, this stupid war against Iraq ain't helping things. Remember, the business traveler is the most profitable flyer and as long as the war lasts, business travel is going to be slow.

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Nope, never mind. Let's avoid political and religious statements as much as possible. Nobody ever agrees with anything concerning politics and religion anyway.
 
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Well, this stupid war against Iraq ain't helping things. Remember, the business traveler is the most profitable flyer and as long as the war lasts, business travel is going to be slow

[/ QUOTE ]

But cheaper oil and airline subsidies due to the war may go a long way in helping.

The idea that people aren't flying is a fallacy. They are flying, they are just doing it on cheaper fares. Our load factors are still very high.
 
All month I'd say my load factors have been in the 90th percentile.
 
Well Dave that makes the most since out of things ive heard in a long time. I have flew several times since 9/11 and most times the plane has been pretty full. Once i was on reservere and didnt get on the plane because it was full. I guess the low fares explains it. Both my parents travel with business, and quite frankly i dont know anyone, ill say it again I dont know ANYONE who has completly stopped flying. So I think its just a matter of time before it turns around, or ticket prices come up. And I cant wait! Maybey everyone will be alot more happy then!
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