My three years from now thoughts, a ray of hope for those with none...

[Dphoenix]

Now look at flu deaths from last year, and the year before that, and the year before that, and ask yourself what it might mean that there's a bunch of covid deaths and way fewer than the usual flu deaths? Hm. What are the chances that such a large number of flu deaths would just vanish into the ether this year?

Only about 34,200 for 2018-2019 season, which is still massively lower than the 160k we've already had here in the USA by a large magnitude. And given that people were isolating and on lockdown for much of March/April, I would expect to see many vanish into the ether as well - yes, masks can help with other diseases like the flu, as does social distancing...

It ain't mass hysteria when there's 160k deaths. That number isn't inflated in the slightest.

 

[Dart_8992]

Now look at flu deaths from last year, and the year before that, and the year before that, and ask yourself what it might mean that there's a bunch of covid deaths and way fewer than the usual flu deaths? Hm. What are the chances that such a large number of flu deaths would just vanish into the ether this year?

Uhh, it would mean its not Flu Season.....

Peak Flu Season is December-March with February being the typical worse month... COVID started in late March into April in the US. Also the official count for deaths on the flu isn't a live statistic. They go back and estimate it after the year is over so we wont have an accurate depiction of the 2020-2021 flu season until at the earliest, summer 2021. According to the CDC they estimate the 2019-2020 Flu Season to be just as bad as any of the previous years, so I really don't see what your point is here? Seems to me like you're just making sh*t up...

Burden of Influenza

Learn about how CDC estimates the burden of seasonal influenza in the U.S.

www.cdc.gov

More importantly though. What does any of this have to do with the future of air travel???

 

[Mainline_or_bust]

Thank you for that ray of sunshine. When 300 out of work dispatchers are applying for 4 openings at a regional 2 years from now.

The whole thread seems to have gotten off topic right away. Maybe some feel the tunnel is longer and darker than I believe. I truly believe there will be less difficulty getting hired at a major in about 3 years than it was 3 years ago.

It’s sad that WN may have possibly not retired as many as I had heard but anyone would have their head in the sand to think that it’s something like a five year or more return to normal. Once that happens, you have a never before seen amount of pent up travel energy.

At least from a desire stand point, those who travel even once every three years will be itching to go somewhere, demand and load factors will be high. Pilot shortages will be widespread and majors will be hiring dispatchers far more three years from now (or thereabouts) than they were three years ago. The catch will be if it’s 7% as stated instead of closer to 20% as I’ve suggested based only on an article.

 

[who'swho]

The whole thread seems to have gotten off topic right away. Maybe some feel the tunnel is longer and darker than I believe. I truly believe there will be less difficulty getting hired at a major in about 3 years than it was 3 years ago.

It’s sad that WN may have possibly not retired as many as I had heard but anyone would have their head in the sand to think that it’s something like a five year or more return to normal. Once that happens, you have a never before seen amount of pent up travel energy.

At least from a desire stand point, those who travel even once every three years will be itching to go somewhere, demand and load factors will be high. Pilot shortages will be widespread and majors will be hiring dispatchers far more three years from now (or thereabouts) than they were three years ago. The catch will be if it’s 7% as stated instead of closer to 20% as I’ve suggested based only on an article.

Personally, I think the quick recovery ship has sailed. The tourism industry has been destroyed. You can't just destroy an industry like that and think it won't have far reaching consequences throughout the economy. People need jobs just to live, let alone buy an airline ticket. I hope I'm wrong but I think this will take 10 years to recover from.

 

[DispatcherSam]

The additional $600 a week for unemployment is now gone, so there’s that.

 

[KiloEchoVictor]

What does any of this have to do with the future of air travel???

It's already been established that the public has a completely warped perspective on how bad the virus actually is. Nobody forced the airlines to shut down or stop flying, the damage is the result of a drop in demand. Do I need to spell out for you how those two things are connected? People stopped flying because they think the virus is much more dangerous than it actually is, simple as that, and it's not going to improve as long as people have that warped perspective.
Not to mention that many people will not be able to afford to travel even if they wanted to, thanks to all the other damage that has been done across the economy as a whole.
As for the flu estimates, I guess we will see when that new data comes out. Looking forward to it. All I am saying is that lots of candidates for flu death have been listed as covid. I will believe that a typical number of flu deaths happened in tandem when I see those numbers.

It ain't mass hysteria when there's 160k deaths. That number isn't inflated in the slightest.

Problems with counting methods have already been mentioned, as well as demographics, as well as the overall survival rate, and if you can't see how that number is being presented in a dishonest way, then I can't help you. You do not get to a two-hundred and twenty-five fold overestimate of deaths without mass hysteria. There is no accountability in how this information is being presented to the public and as a result, people have totally lost perspective on it.

 

[Dphoenix]

Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19

Figures present excess deaths associated with COVID-19 at the national and state levels.

www.cdc.gov

Dude, there's no overestimation of deaths. You have no source for that, and you can't provide one. Meanwhile, it's easy to see what a normal number of deaths is and a gigantic spike pointing to when Covid arrived and got bad.

 

[KiloEchoVictor]

Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19

Figures present excess deaths associated with COVID-19 at the national and state levels.

www.cdc.gov

Dude, there's no overestimation of deaths. You have no source for that, and you can't provide one. Meanwhile, it's easy to see what a normal number of deaths is and a gigantic spike pointing to when Covid arrived and got bad.

Please ignore the public health officials who outright tell us that anybody who dies with a covid diagnosis counts as a "covid death"
From the horse's mouth:

If you were in hospice and had already been given a few weeks to live and then you were also found to have covid, that would be counted as a covid death. It means that technically, even if you died of a clear alternate cause but you had covid at the same time, it's still listed as a covid death.

There is virtually no transparency on the actual causes of death, they are just keeping a tally of people who happened to have covid when they died.

Even Dr. Redfield, the director of the CDC, has acknowledged that the death count is likely to be inflated. This was just last week, by the way:

Front Page Featured | MRCTV

www.cnsnews.com

Dr. Birx also stated that she believes the CDC is inflating the death count back in May, by up to 25% in her estimation:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/as-deaths-mount-trump-tries-to-convince-americans-its-safe-to-inch-back-to-normal/2020/05/09/bf024fe6-9149-11ea-a9c0-73b93422d691_story.html

During a task force meeting Wednesday, a heated discussion broke out between Deborah Birx, the physician who oversees the administration’s coronavirus response, and Robert Redfield, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Birx and others were frustrated with the CDC’s antiquated system for tracking virus data, which they worried was inflating some statistics — such as mortality rate and case count — by as much as 25 percent, according to four people present for the discussion or later briefed on it. Two senior administration officials said the discussion was not heated.

In April, NYC added 3,700 "presumed" covid deaths when none of the people in question had ever been tested. No way to know how much that's happening either:

https://theweek.com/5things/908808/new-york-city-adds-3700-deaths-revised-count

The CDC itself says that it is appropriate to log a "covid death" if covid is "suspected."

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pdf

 

[Dphoenix]

Again, you can correlate that with the excess deaths. Covid19 doesn't kill you from Covid19. It puts strain on and causes damage to all of your organs. You can die of a heart attack with covid19... it's not a heart attack death, it's a covid19 death in most cases. You can die of a stroke with covid19... it's not a stroke death, it's a covid19 death. Pneumonia is the obvious killer but by far not the only one. Without performing an autopsy on every patient, if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, in the middle of the pandemic we kind of are going to assume it's a duck. You cite an article from New York adding 3700 presumed covid deaths as evidence. Keep in mind the date, April 14th. If a rash of new yorkers suddenly die at home from pnuemonia like disease in the middle of a pandemic, then yeah, you can add some presumptive statistics without wasting at that time what were incredibly limited tests on corpses. And yes.. from your CDC link.
" In cases where a definite diagnosis of COVID–19 cannot be made, but it is suspected or likely (e.g., the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty), it is acceptable to report COVID–19 on a death certificate as “probable” or “presumed.” In these instances, certifiers should use their best clinical judgement in determining if a COVID–19 infection was likely. However, please note that testing for COVID–19 should be conducted whenever possible. "
We know how many people die of pneumonia in NYC in a typical year in April. A big spike in that can be easily inferred to be Covid. You can take a sample and go back and run the testing later when it's not as limited and get the actual results.

Finally, you also are still fixated on deaths only. There are still people who have been fighting this disease in the hospital for three months that aren't dead yet. If you're not taking adequate precautions to protect yourself and your family, you have your head in the sand. Somebody's gotta be the outlier and I don't intend to be one of the dead 35 year olds.

 

[KiloEchoVictor]

You cite an article from New York

I cite explicit admissions from top public health officials that the numbers are inaccurate and overestimated, possibly to a significant degree. What's more than that, they are sources that you would otherwise believe if they said that covid-19 will kill you eleventy-billion times as you walk from your front door to your car without a mask. Don't forget your goggles, bro, Dr. Fauci said so.

you can add some presumptive statistics without wasting at that time what were incredibly limited tests on corpses

We know how many people die of pneumonia in NYC in a typical year in April. A big spike in that can be easily inferred to be Covid. You can take a sample and go back and run the testing later when it's not as limited and get the actual results.

So you admit that the death numbers we have are not (and could not possibly be) accurate, even though you tried to use them to fearmonger earlier in this conversation.

I don't intend to be one of the dead 35 year olds.

This is really the only worthwhile part of your post because you're basically just admitting to being emotionally compromised. You asked for sources, I gave them, and you continue to prove that you're not capable of having a reasonable conversation about this. So, peace and enjoy living in irrational fear. We'll see if you still have a job a couple of months from now

 

[Dphoenix]

I posted the excess deaths chart, and you chose to ignore it. I also believe Dr Fauci, so yeah, I don't think we're going to see eye to eye. You want to believe it's fake and dangerous, go right ahead, but that attitude is leading to more spreading of the disease and ultimately job loss. We could be well past this by now if everybody acted responsibly. I don't live in 'irrational fear', I live by risk management, a quality that any good pilot exercises. Right now, the risks of say, indoor dining outweigh the rewards to me. Risk management? I can get takeout or cook at home, which vastly lowers my risk. Threatening my job well... I already have a WARN from UA for Oct 1. My health and other people's health is still more important than my job, however. Science will get us out of this.

 

[QXDX]

So you admit that the death numbers we have are not (and could not possibly be) accurate, even though you tried to use them to fearmonger earlier in this conversation.

This is the crux of the situation. Why are so many in our industry hell-bent on fear mongering the thing that is destroying their job and career? Some people get downright angry when anyone dares to suggest that things aren't as bad as they're reported, or that things are improving. A few days ago I posted that things are getting better in terms of fatality rates, and within minutes one of my counterparts jumped in to protest that things were getting worse again. It's like they get a thrill over being a doomsayer. I just don't understand it.

 

[paincorp]

This is the crux of the situation. Why are so many in our industry hell-bent on fear mongering the thing that is destroying their job and career? Some people get downright angry when anyone dares to suggest that things aren't as bad as they're reported, or that things are improving. A few days ago I posted that things are getting better in terms of fatality rates, and within minutes one of my counterparts jumped in to protest that things were getting worse again. It's like they get a thrill over being a doomsayer. I just don't understand it.

Because facts matter.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[jynxyjoe]

Because facts matter.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Why won't you just play along with our pretend reality? Covid is fine, no big deal!

 

[justaboutdone]

This is the crux of the situation. Why are so many in our industry hell-bent on fear mongering the thing that is destroying their job and career? Some people get downright angry when anyone dares to suggest that things aren't as bad as they're reported, or that things are improving. A few days ago I posted that things are getting better in terms of fatality rates, and within minutes one of my counterparts jumped in to protest that things were getting worse again. It's like they get a thrill over being a doomsayer. I just don't understand it.

To expand upon what @paincorp said...

Because facts matter.

I’d say it’s because the failure to take this virus seriously is only going to prolong the crisis and ultimately hinder our careers even more than they already have been.

 

[KiloEchoVictor]

I posted the excess deaths chart, and you chose to ignore it.

Because it doesn't address any of the issues raised with the way deaths are being counted, which you have repeatedly ignored because you don't have an answer for it.
Meanwhile, in reality:

COVID Webinar Series (TRANSCRIPT): Robert Redfield, MD - BUCK

Robert Redfield, MD, Director, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Tuesday, July 14, 2020 His session is available for viewing online. This is a transcript of the Q & A: KRIS REBILLOT: Dr. Redfield, welcome. ROBERT REDFIELD, MD: Thank you very much. Yeah, resourcefulness. KRIS: We...

www.buckinstitute.org

We’re seeing, sadly, far greater suicides now than we are deaths from COVID. We’re seeing far greater deaths from drug overdose that are above excess that we had as background than we are seeing the deaths from COVID. So this is why I keep coming back for the overall social being of individuals, is let’s all work together and find out how we can find common ground to get these schools open in a way that people are comfortable and their safe. And if there is a need for investment and resources, just like there is a need for some of the underprivileged children that are probably better served if they have certain comorbidities to do homeschooling, they need the access to be able to have the computer and the internet to do that.

Can't wait to see the suicide numbers this year, they will be very illuminating.

Threatening my job well... I already have a WARN from UA for Oct 1. My health and other people's health is still more important than my job, however. Science will get us out of this.

Nobody's "threatening your job" except, ironically, people like you. Pretty much everyone I know from work IRL wasn't taking this seriously back in February, when information was readily available to anyone who pays attention. I warned everyone that this was going to be a big disruption and would cause a mass hysteria event, and nobody listened. Now all those same people are suddenly (very, very scared) epidemiologists and virologists overnight and believe everything the TV tells them about how the sky is falling. Anyway, I can't imagine someone who actually needs their job would be so cavalier about losing it, though. Not everyone is so lucky.

Because facts matter.

It's really bizarre to watch somebody defending the very same panic that just took their job from them just a couple of months ago. You'd think people would have a few questions about something like that, but I guess not.

 

[Dphoenix]

Because it doesn't address any of the issues raised with the way deaths are being counted, which you have repeatedly ignored because you don't have an answer for it.
Meanwhile, in reality:

COVID Webinar Series (TRANSCRIPT): Robert Redfield, MD - BUCK

Robert Redfield, MD, Director, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Tuesday, July 14, 2020 His session is available for viewing online. This is a transcript of the Q & A: KRIS REBILLOT: Dr. Redfield, welcome. ROBERT REDFIELD, MD: Thank you very much. Yeah, resourcefulness. KRIS: We...

www.buckinstitute.org

Can't wait to see the suicide numbers this year, they will be very illuminating.

Nobody's "threatening your job" except, ironically, people like you. Pretty much everyone I know from work IRL wasn't taking this seriously back in February, when information was readily available to anyone who pays attention. I warned everyone that this was going to be a big disruption and would cause a mass hysteria event, and nobody listened. Now all those same people are suddenly (very, very scared) epidemiologists and virologists overnight and believe everything the TV tells them about how the sky is falling. Anyway, I can't imagine someone who actually needs their job would be so cavalier about losing it, though. Not everyone is so lucky.

It's really bizarre to watch somebody defending the very same panic that just took their job from them just a couple of months ago. You'd think people would have a few questions about something like that, but I guess not.

That was a very interesting transcript, but so far in this conversation we have not been talking about child suicides or child covid19 mortality numbers, which are obviously low... so it's weird you're suddenly talking about those unless you are trying to extrapolate his statement about high schoolers committing suicide to the entire population. Covid19 has killed 3x the number of people as suicide this year from the data I could find, although Covid19 deaths skew older than suicide which tends more to be middle aged white males, so it's not exactly equivalent. Nevertheless, those suicides don't have to happen - if people are kept supported with their mortgages, extended and expanded unemployment benefits, appropriate access to mental health counselling.. many can be prevented.

I did think this was interesting: "So, you know, I’m not necessarily going to recommend that they do it, but I was not going to recommend that they don’t do it. I am going to try to give them technical advice. And if they do do it… same thing I’m trying to do with the airlines right now. I mean, everyone knows I’m very disappointed in American Airlines, which made the decision to fill their middle seats. You know, I just flew the other day on Southwest, and I was very appreciative that they’re continuing to leave the middle seats empty because they think that’s an important thing that they do. All the airlines, including American, are using mandatory mask, and I’m very thankful for that. But I do think if you’re on a six-hour plane, you know, ride with three people in a row, in economy class, you know, I’d prefer to see the airlines maintain of the middle seats open for right now. And so… but it’s really not for me… I can just give them the general guidance. "

Also in the part about schools reopening, he seems to be under the impression they're all going to wear masks, which we know is not happening in most of the school districts. And that there won't be any spread from infected asymptomatic kids because the kids will just wear masks when they get home indoors with their families.. yeah.. that's.. not realistic.

 

[majorpilot]

Uhh, it would mean its not Flu Season.....

Peak Flu Season is December-March with February being the typical worse month... COVID started in late March into April in the US. Also the official count for deaths on the flu isn't a live statistic. They go back and estimate it after the year is over so we wont have an accurate depiction of the 2020-2021 flu season until at the earliest, summer 2021. According to the CDC they estimate the 2019-2020 Flu Season to be just as bad as any of the previous years, so I really don't see what your point is here? Seems to me like you're just making sh*t up...

Burden of Influenza

Learn about how CDC estimates the burden of seasonal influenza in the U.S.

www.cdc.gov

More importantly though. What does any of this have to do with the future of air travel???

Ah, Occam's Razor dulled and useless, once again, on the bricks of willful ignorance. For those saying "it's just the flu" due to "media hysteria," google Nick Cordero, a well-known 41 year old actor killed by COVID. A professional dancer, he was quite fit. Before he passed, he spent three months in intensive care, had a leg amputated, and was going to need lung transplants. LUNG transplants! Someone close to me knows TWO healthy 30/40-somethings struck down, another friend had 3 30-somethings. All were healthy (two marathoners, for all of you "other health condition" internet MDs. Now a report of a frickin' SEVEN year old kid.

You geniuses keep cherry-picking data, soaking up that FuaxNews, and telling yourselves it's all a hoax. Meanwhile, common decency won't stop you from going out like it's nothing, so just touch everything and breathe deep...when it kills someone you love who dies in agony gasping for breath after days, weeks or months of other complications, come tell us how it all overblown media manipulation, and how it's NBD. Darwin will prevail thankfully!

 

[Flagship_dxer]

Ah, Occam's Razor dulled and useless, once again, on the bricks of willful ignorance. For those saying "it's just the flu" due to "media hysteria," google Nick Cordero, a well-known 41 year old actor killed by COVID. A professional dancer, he was quite fit. Before he passed, he spent three months in intensive care, had a leg amputated, and was going to need lung transplants. LUNG transplants! Someone close to me knows TWO healthy 30/40-somethings struck down, another friend had 3 30-somethings. All were healthy (two marathoners, for all of you "other health condition" internet MDs. Now a report of a frickin' SEVEN year old kid.

You geniuses keep cherry-picking data, soaking up that FuaxNews, and telling yourselves it's all a hoax. Meanwhile, common decency won't stop you from going out like it's nothing, so just touch everything and breathe deep...when it kills someone you love who dies in agony gasping for breath after days, weeks or months of other complications, come tell us how it all overblown media manipulation, and how it's NBD. Darwin will prevail thankfully!

According to Dr Fauci, the WHO, and numerous epidemiologists, the virus is never going away even if everyone on earth receives a vaccine. Thus we have to learn to live with the risks. You can either take your chances with the virus or live locked up the rest of your life hoping the government gravy train never ends. If everyone stays locked up forever, the world wouldn't be a place worth living in.

As airline workers, our futures are hedged on the hope that our customers will start traveling again. Since the virus is never going away and you still have a 50% chance if not more of getting it even with a vaccine, we all better hope and pray that our customers decide that traveling is an acceptable risk as we will all be out of jobs if they don't come back.

 

[Dphoenix]

According to Dr Fauci, the WHO, and numerous epidemiologists, the virus is never going away even if everyone on earth receives a vaccine. Thus we have to learn to live with the risks. You can either take your chances with the virus or live locked up the rest of your life hoping the government gravy train never ends. If everyone stays locked up forever, the world wouldn't be a place worth living in.

As airline workers, our futures are hedged on the hope that our customers will start traveling again. Since the virus is never going away and you still have a 50% chance if not more of getting it even with a vaccine, we all better hope and pray that our customers decide that traveling is an acceptable risk as we will all be out of jobs if they don't come back.

They're talking about worldwide. Measles hasn't gone away either but it's still not anything I give a crap about because there's a readily available vaccine that's almost 97% effective and outside of a few minor outbreaks because of some idiots listening to Jenny McCarthay, it's effective enough and the virus spread is low enough that we have herd immunity. Remember polio was only eradicated worldwide a few years ago. Since this isn't a third world country, and it's very likely certain activities like going to school or or going to a foreign country or getting on an airplane might soon require proof of Covid19 vaccination, if they can hit 70-75% effectiveness and several years of effectiveness it should be a pretty trivial issue in a few years in the USA.
Your comments about staying locked up forever seem like overkill when we've got several vaccines that are showing immunogenic response mere months away with 100 million doses supposedly ready by the end of the year which should be plenty for schoolteachers/elderly/first responders.

Science | AAAS

www.sciencemag.org

We've had a vaccine for a long time and zero cases in the USA since 1979. 79. But it still exists in the world.
If I was Fauci god I'd be careful what I say because people will twist anything.