My three years from now thoughts, a ray of hope for those with none...

According to Dr Fauci, the WHO, and numerous epidemiologists, the virus is never going away even if everyone on earth receives a vaccine. Thus we have to learn to live with the risks. You can either take your chances with the virus or live locked up the rest of your life hoping the government gravy train never ends. If everyone stays locked up forever, the world wouldn't be a place worth living in.

As airline workers, our futures are hedged on the hope that our customers will start traveling again. Since the virus is never going away and you still have a 50% chance if not more of getting it even with a vaccine, we all better hope and pray that our customers decide that traveling is an acceptable risk as we will all be out of jobs if they don't come back.
Spanish flu didn't go away either. Humanity built up enough of an immunity to it that we can now live with it. That's probably where we'll be by this time next summer.
 
They're talking about worldwide. Measles hasn't gone away either but it's still not anything I give a crap about because there's a readily available vaccine that's almost 97% effective and outside of a few minor outbreaks because of some idiots listening to Jenny McCarthay, it's effective enough and the virus spread is low enough that we have herd immunity. Remember polio was only eradicated worldwide a few years ago. Since this isn't a third world country, and it's very likely certain activities like going to school or or going to a foreign country or getting on an airplane might soon require proof of Covid19 vaccination, if they can hit 70-75% effectiveness and several years of effectiveness it should be a pretty trivial issue in a few years in the USA.
Your comments about staying locked up forever seem like overkill when we've got several vaccines that are showing immunogenic response mere months away with 100 million doses supposedly ready by the end of the year which should be plenty for schoolteachers/elderly/first responders.




We've had a vaccine for a long time and zero cases in the USA since 1979. 79. But it still exists in the world.
If I was Fauci god I'd be careful what I say because people will twist anything.

Even if you are right it will still be 2-3 years from now before the first round of vaccines is widely distrubuted to enough people in this country. Plus there will need to be booster shots every year. Airline employees can’t wait that long. Whether we like it or not, we need demand to return as soon as possible otherwise 30% airline furloughs will become 60-70% like we are seeing in places like Canada.
 
Even if you are right it will still be 2-3 years from now before the first round of vaccines is widely distrubuted to enough people in this country. Plus there will need to be booster shots every year. Airline employees can’t wait that long. Whether we like it or not, we need demand to return as soon as possible otherwise 30% airline furloughs will become 60-70% like we are seeing in places like Canada.

I don't think that jives with reality if we get several effective vaccines (ie moderna one works, johnson and johnson one works, etc). Johnson and Johnson says they can produce 600 to 900 million doses by April of 2021. They're planning to make a billion or more annually. That's just one company, there are so many others working on it. It will be widely available in 1st world countries by March 2021 if all goes well. That jibes pretty well with the extension of the PPP thru March 31st 2021.
 
I don't think that jives with reality if we get several effective vaccines (ie moderna one works, johnson and johnson one works, etc). Johnson and Johnson says they can produce 600 to 900 million doses by April of 2021. They're planning to make a billion or more annually. That's just one company, there are so many others working on it. It will be widely available in 1st world countries by March 2021 if all goes well. That jibes pretty well with the extension of the PPP thru March 31st 2021.

Thats wildly optimistic. A vaccine may not even be approved until March. Nobody is making a billion doses of anything until it is actually approved.

Australia and Qantas seem to agree with the idea that things wont be widely available until late next year as they have just long term parked most of their 787s with the idea that a vaccine is at least a year away from being distributed enough to allow for travel again.
 
One way or another this will all end on November 3rd. Chinavirus will no longer be of use to the Left, and you'll see all the doom and gloom disappear.
 
What a clever, original thought, definitely not lifted from right wing facebook and every pilot facebook page I've seen.
And also not in any way accurate, since viruses are little for presidential elections. Most countries in the world it was a big deal too, but less so because they're not as obstinate as we are about FREEDUMB and "masks are for sheeple".
 
Your optimism is welcomed, and it's true that a mass retirement is going to be inevitable as boomer pilots and DX age out of their jobs, but I am skeptical of a return in demand - People are VERY freaked out by covid. Deaths are going back up, and even though the survival rate is and always was very high, the media loves a good story.

None of that is to say that older people or people with other chronic conditions don't have a legitimate fear, but the general hysteria surrounding this whole thing largely falls on the shoulders of the media in my book. They (the media) have perfectly healthy people scared that they are going to die from something with a 99%+ survival rate, and the public fear of it is so pervasive that every business under the sun is tripping over themselves to shield themselves from liability or any kind of accusation of impropriety.

I personally think it is and always was blown out of proportion, but my view on it doesn't change the paranoia that people feel, or the way the media is fueling it. They love a good story and they absolutely will not let this go. A coronavirus like covid will probably never completely go away, just like the cold and the flu, and as long as there's any trace of it they will continue to publish fear-porn about it.

Market forces will eventually impose reality on all of this, sooner or later, but even when the mass retirement eventually happens, I am skeptical that demand will come roaring back.
KEV,

Though the media has engaged in fear porn, that's not what's keeping me from traveling again. It's not the virus that scares me; it's the REACTION to it! For me, it's the UNCERTAINTY. For example, I was planning to see my brother in March. I ultimately didn't go, because POTUS was making noises about grounding domestic flights. I didn't want to be stuck in FL for weeks! If I were going to be stuck anywhere, I wanted to be stuck at home. Just knowing that this (i.e. mass flight cancellations) can happen will keep a lot of people home for a while, regardless of what they think about COVID. Even if someone doesn't think COVID is a big deal, they'll be wary of traveling because they don't want to be stranded somewhere far from home. That said, as therapies and vaccines are developed, I think domestic travel could rebound in 8-12 months.

I don't know if domestic air travel will make a full recovery. The airlines are requiring PAX to wear masks, and many of us don't want to do that. If the mask requirement isn't rescinded at some point, then, barring an emergency, I simply won't fly again. I know I'm not the only one who feels this way, so domestic flights may not make a full recovery to pre-COVID levels.

International travel will take a lot longer to recover. Many of the countries accepting international flights have quarantines in effect; they're typically for 14 days upon arrival. I don't know if that would apply for US citizens returning home, though it might. I know that we had quarantines early on. How is one going to do any business or leisure travel if one is faced with a 14 day quarantine upon arrival? Since many people don't take off for more than a week or so, that means that they'll spend their vacation quarantined. For business travelers, it means spending 14 days quarantined before holding your meeting. Why go if you can't do any sight seeing? Why go if you can't conduct business? Furthermore, what company would spend two weeks worth of hotel bills? Therefore, I don't see international travel recovering for years.

Those are my thoughts as a prospective passenger.
 

Dude, there's no overestimation of deaths. You have no source for that, and you can't provide one. Meanwhile, it's easy to see what a normal number of deaths is and a gigantic spike pointing to when Covid arrived and got bad.
The gov't IS overestimating COVID deaths! Don't believe me; believe Dr. Birx of the CV task force. I saw this press conference live (had nothing better to do), so I can vouch for what she said. I remember being SURPRISED when I heard it. Check this out:
 
The gov't IS overestimating COVID deaths! Don't believe me; believe Dr. Birx of the CV task force. I saw this press conference live (had nothing better to do), so I can vouch for what she said. I remember being SURPRISED when I heard it. Check this out:

I might be more willing to take a YouTube’d YouTube video (can’t link to the original source or reputable source?) seriously if the same guy didn’t have another video calling COVID a “Psyop.”


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Color me SHOCKED that when somebody who dies counts with Covid19, we count that as a Covid19 death. What she is saying speaks more to dishonesty or lack of understanding of the disease in other countries than any criticism of ours, imo. We know covid19 affects the heart and liver, if somebody dies of a heart attack and they have Covid19, it's reasonable to presume it was a covid19 death. Especially with body bags stacking up everywhere, how many autopsies do you want to do? We know it causes heart attacks in otherwise healthy people, and some that are not so healthy. That may, in a few cases, lead to an overcount.
Obviously if somebody dies in a motorcycle crash with covid19, you don't count it. That was a Florida just being Florida problem, and they removed that person from the statistics.
I will end by once again saying that death is NOT the only bad possible outcome from the disease and looking at deaths only will lead to a very 36,000 ft view of what is actually quite a bit of pain and suffering for those dealing with the disease that don't die of it.

 
I might be more willing to take a YouTube’d YouTube video (can’t link to the original source or reputable source?) seriously if the same guy didn’t have another video calling COVID a “Psyop.”


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So, you're not willing to accept the truth straight from the HORSE'S mouth? I don't know who posted the YT video, but it's 100% true. I saw that presser live, and I was in disbelief over what I heard. Perhaps you'll find this Newsweek article interesting...
 
So, you're not willing to accept the truth straight from the HORSE'S mouth? I don't know who posted the YT video, but it's 100% true. I saw that presser live, and I was in disbelief over what I heard. Perhaps you'll find this Newsweek article interesting...

In the world we live in, the source of the information needs to be clear. I can go watch Nixon give a speech he never gave, after all. Not saying that’s what is happening here, but there is too much misinformation floating around for me not to wonder why I’m being linked to a guy with a handful of views vs any other reputable source.

Nothing against you, we all need to vet our sources of information.


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So, you're not willing to accept the truth straight from the HORSE'S mouth? I don't know who posted the YT video, but it's 100% true. I saw that presser live, and I was in disbelief over what I heard. Perhaps you'll find this Newsweek article interesting...

This is because Florida is a crap state with a messed up health system run by a dumb Republican governor, and it was fixed and he was removed from the data.

 
This is because Florida is a crap state with a messed up health system run by a dumb Republican governor, and it was fixed and he was removed from the data.

This sort of thing is happening in both Dem and GOP states; no party has anything on the other when it comes to curious COVID numbers. The point is that this sort of thing is happening; that the numbers can't be trusted; therefore, we have to suspect everything the "authorities", regardless of party, are telling us.
 

Cause of death is rarely so simple. This is a great example. Technically he drowned. But without covid19, no seizure, and no drowning. Did he die of Covid19 or not? That's the truth about "overstated" numbers. It's tricky mid pandemic. We know the disease is deadly, though, and having a temperature so high you start having seizures cannot be good for long term health.
 
You can either take your chances with the virus or live locked up the rest of your life hoping the government gravy train never ends. If everyone stays locked up forever, the world wouldn't be a place worth living in.

This is hardly the choice.

If we all lived having to choose between two false choices, the world wouldn’t be worth living in.

No one I know is locked up waiting for the government gravy train to end. But we are taking reasonable and sensible precautions that stupid people make fun of ... and then bear no consequence for the problems created by their selfish and uncivil conduct.

If you want to save your job, my job, any job, be smart. Until there is a proven vaccine, take countermeasures. Suck it up and work together. Accept short term pain for long term gain. And, like other countries who’ve done that, we will save lives and preserve our economy.

Or don’t ... but I reject both of your ridiculous paths. Hell, take your chances though, Darwin approves!

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The gov't IS overestimating COVID deaths! Don't believe me; believe Dr. Birx of the CV task force. I saw this press conference live (had nothing better to do), so I can vouch for what she said. I remember being SURPRISED when I heard it. Check this out:

Yeah, it’s more like 169,000, not 170,000.

Yes...you got me! It’s all made up!!! All of the stories about people who downplayed it then DIED are all liberal hoaxes too ... just like school shootings, 5G and the internet...and fingerprints! Sure, they SAY there aren’t two people with the same ones..but they’ve never TESTED everyone, have they?

Fight me!

Bwahahahahahahaha!!!
 
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