A Path to A New Thriving GA Paradigm

RVSM

Member
We already have a thread on why GA is not working and why it is considered a "dying" industry in the United States. So, I thought I'd take a moment to create a thread that gathers some ideas about how we actually go about building a new GA paradigm.

There are many elements to any industry that determines its success and/or failure. I could literally write a book about the industry I work in, describing the various elements that make it work, what could kill it and how to possibly make it better. Bringing some of the same ideas that would make any for profit industry strong, I'd like to offer my take on what GA might be able to do, in order to improve its current economic situation.

Though not yet a pilot, I've been involved in aviation (military, commercial and GA) since I was very young. I go back far enough to remember the cost of a C-152 coming in at around $38 - $48 per hour Wet, with the standard C-172 coming in at around $41 - $53 per hour. You could rent a twin back in those days for $68 per hour Wet, or lower. The excessive increases in 'cost-to-participate' alone, have been a big factor for suppressing the growth in GA over the years. But, cost-to-participate is not the only key factor.

If you go back to GA in the United States circa late 1950's through late 1970's, you not only see thriving GA community, but you also see a commitment on the part of government to actually building new airports that were supposed to support not just the hobby of GA, but the commerce that depended on GA. Once upon a time in this country, we actually built smaller local and regional airports to support the "anticipated" future air traffic needed to link various regions into economic relationships. Somehow, that 'commitment' to grow GA as a necessary arm of commerce, has turned into a 'War on GA' as a necessary evil of sorts.

Every business in every industry has a duty to win the Mindshare War. Without mindshare you have little to no market activity. If people have no reason to think about what you have to offer them, they won't think about spending either their money or their time in your place of business and you certainly can't grow an industry absent dollars from customers. If you are going to move GA out of the doldrums, then GA has to become more than just a mere hobby to the masses, which means redeveloping what GA means to people and packaging that meaning in ways that make it necessary and/or desirable for a larger number of people. GA needs to become more than a lifestyle, but a lifestyle that is interwoven to one's profession, vocation and/or career choice. Do that successfully and the industry will boom beyond imagination.

The Money Factor has always been one of my pet peeves about GA. I remember the days back in school, when the only kids that could get their Private Pilots License, were those that came from families who had already established fully funded college accounts, back when the were still in High School. In other words, fairly well to do families. GA is expensive and that will by definition keep the masses from ever engaging the lifestyle. It will always make GA seem like something only 'rich people' do. When the masses are not involved, it causes everything (excluding fuel prices) to go up in price eventually because there is lower demand and little to no competition.

We could see a decrease in overall prices by increasing demand AND increasing competition at the same time. However, merely increasing demand without also increasing competition will only serve to drive prices even higher.

The problem (as I see it) is that nobody is doing anything about treating GA like a real business. Where's the Marketing Plan for GA? Where's the Expansion Strategy for GA? Where's the Business Plan for GA? How can anyone expect it to grow, when none of these things are in place? It is not as if people don't already know that airplanes exist. People know and the GA industry is still compressing, not expanding. Therefore, treating GA as a high-priced hobby just won't work. There needs to be concerted, strategic, ongoing national plan that seeks to expand GA by way of education, exposure and incentive. Absent that - you cannot establish the necessary mindshare that develops long rang interest in those who are now either sitting on the sidelines, or who have never been properly introduced to the industry/community.

In any real business model, you must constantly focus on increasing market share (through increasing mindshare) and improving the product, along with the way that product gets delivered to the customer. Fail to do that, and your business will stagnate unless you run a Commodity type business model. In order to increase the market, people have to see GA as something that is either necessary or at least desirable enough to include as a normalized component of their own personal discretionary spending. This is not going to happen, if GA is only considered to be a weekend hobby for rich folks.

GA needs a Paradigm Shift. Somehow, the SEL aircraft needs to become almost as important to people as their car or SUV. Notice, I said "almost as important." That mental framework helps to bridge the gap between "necessary" and "highly desirable" in the mind of the end-user. This is simply not going to happen all by itself. Nobody is going to sprinkle magical pixie dust on people and get them to start thinking about airplanes in ways they never did before. I see three (3) important areas that need to be explored.

Using the aircraft to:

1) Extend individual Professional, Vocational, Career and Business opportunities
2) Increase and Strengthen Family relationships by reducing Time & Distance
3) Increasing Personal Freedom by extending Range and decreasing Time

Now, there is absolutely nothing new abut these concepts whatsoever to those already involved in GA. However, do any of these things even register to those not already involved? Nope. And, that's the problem!


 
Attacking the Core Problem: Creating A New Culture of GA Minded Individuals

Simply put, what do you do as a parent when you want your child to grow-up maintaining the same values that you hold dearly? You educate, train and expose that child to a particular way of living and then you release them into society (praying all the time) and trust that what you have ingrained will not be forgotten. Well - if you want a new culture of robust GA participants, then maybe its time to embark on a national campaign of education, training and exposure.

I have some things (projects) in mind that I'd like to see come to fruition across the country relative to GA and young people, but that would require a lot of money to start properly. In the meantime, there are other things that can be done, which do not come with inordinately large price tags.

In order to establish a new paradigm that increases the "necessity and/or desirability" factor(s) in people relative to their interest in GA, we can take most of the money factor out of the equation and start to indoctrinate (expose) people when they are much younger. We can begin to get people hooked, addicted and well adjusted to accept and expect GA to be a normal part of their lives at a very young age. How? By making GA a normalized component of Public Education - just as normal as Mathematics, Science, History, English, Sociology, Economics, The Arts and Physical Education.

Simply make GA an Elective Course in all High School curriculum across the country. Just having GA Classes in the course catalog in High School, will begin to attract those kids who have a predisposition to flight, whether their parents can afford flight training or not. In fact, you can even begin as early as Junior High School, during the 7th and 8th grades, by introducing Aviation Concepts courses including field trips to Airports, Aviation History Museums and Aircraft/Aerospace Manufacturing Companies.

7th and 8th graders are 13 and 14 years old. That is plenty old enough to begin the exposure to Aviation related concepts at a slow pace, so that it is fun, easy to understand and never forgotten. Once those Junior High School students reach High School, they will already be primed for the next step, where they are taught about the history of aviation and how it came into existence during their Freshman year. The Sophomore, Junior and Senior years, could contain curriculum that tracks a Private Pilot Training course and for the advanced students, the Instrument Rating course. This would create a very healthy level of competition among students to do more than just be ready to take their Private exams for a license, but to go all the way and achieve a level of education necessary for the Instrument rating as well, by the 12th grade graduation date.

Imagine a High School Senior Class of Private and Instrument Rating pilots going into College. They would be some of the most mature and confident College Freshman anywhere campus. Most importantly, you will have indoctrinated an entire generation of potentially new GA participants down range. That means increased participation and increased revenues to the entire industry. Most will not go on to own aircraft personally and many will not go on to a career in aviation, but enough of them will continue on to do both of those things and that will formulate a new core that strengthens both Aviation and Aerospace in the United States. Everybody wins.

The FAA can work with GA groups around the country to create a National Volunteer Flight Instructor Corps. Volunteers would hold CFI and CFII ratings and make themselves available on a rotating basis throughout the week. In creating the new National Volunteer Flight Instruction Corps, the FAA could work with the CFI and CFII volunteer members and the Aerospace/Aeronautical industries (NASA, Lockheed, General Dynamics, Cessna, Piper, etc.), so that they are able to teach the students about Aviation History, Aviation Present and Aviation Future related subjects.

You won't reach a broader and deeper Economy of Scale in GA, if you don't alter the current paradigm and you can't do that, unless you are willing to start investing time, energy and effort into opening the eyes and the minds of the nation's youth about what GA has to offer. This is just one way to start the process, but many other things would need to be done.

How do Public High Schools pay for the Aircraft, text books and supplies needed to conduct the training? Answer: They don't.

Remember, this would be a national effort and no single individual or entity should every be expected to carry the entire load. All of the aircraft manufacturing companies that produce and sell GA airframes in the United States, need to do their part in building the new GA paradigm, as doing so is also for their long-term benefit as well. So, all GA aircraft manufacturers would get together and donate aircraft to schools with Flight Programs. There are roughly 26,000+ post secondary schools in the country.

Not all of them will have fully functioning flight programs. So, nearby Flight Clubs and Flight Schools, could also participate in the effort by donating and/or making available, aircraft for the respective programs in their region. This is also a tremendous opportunity for Light Sport Aircraft Manufacturers to get involved as well with some of their aircraft. Companies that produce flight training materials such as Jeppesen, Sporty's, King, Gleim, etc., including the FAA, could work together to design new training materials that fit the age group and the longer training time lines of a student learning over four (4) year period.

The four (4) year long curriculum would be a lot more than just the Practical Test Standards, obviously. It would be about opening up the eyes of young people to the entire world of Aviation and Aerospace, but with a focus on GA. Do this over the course of four (4) years (Freshman, Sophomore, Junior and Senior) and you create a GA minded individual who not only has a far better appreciation for GA, but infinitely more understanding about the role of GA in the broader scheme of the U.S. economy, as well as what their role could be in that same segment of the economy. At a bare minimum you produce more pilots who spend more discretionary dollars in General Aviation across the country. Not a bad worst case scenario at all for GA.


 
Turbo Charging the GA Industry: Reducing Aircraft Acquisition Costs

Making GA a natural part of the Public Education system will over time, take care of the "Demand" side of the economic equation. The rest will be up to the broader economy to start producing jobs that afford people more discretionary spending capacity. As demand increases, there is no reason why a new Cessna c-172 Skyhawk has to cost as much as a house in Suburban America. $300k for a SEL low performance aircraft is unsustainable in the new paradigm because aggregate discretionary spending for those new entrants into the GA community simply won't support it. Cessna can still turn a good profit selling that same C-172 at between $80k to $125k, if the demand in creases. This is the equivalent of a higher-end Audi, Mercedes, BMW, Cadillac, etc.

This price level would be more reasonable for the typical new GA entrant and the existing GA customer base who can already afford the $300k price tag, but would spend more if the acquisition cost of a new aircraft was substantially lower. Cessna's per unit revenue gets cut by more than half, but its potential new customer base increases by several hundred percent over current levels. The new entrant could buy-in at the $80k range and justify the purchase in the same way they might justify a brand new Audi 8L, especially if the three (3) lifestyle anchors above have meaning in their life.

So, instead of having a garage at home with two (2) or three (3) vehicles, you have one (1) or two (2) nice vehicles in your garage at home and one (1) brand new C-172 in your hanger at the local airport. You extend your ability to do far more during the week than you ever could with ground transportation alone. The GA aircraft industry is going to have to find a way to get those with an interest in aviation to sit seriously question themselves about whether or not they should add another vehicle to the garage, or use that money to buy a brand new aircraft. For many right now, that's just a pipe dream at $300k minimum for a new aircraft.

Right now, most people would consider that a brand new house, which fulfills a completely different lifestyle requirement. So, the pricing scheme, whatever the industry comes up with, will have to shift the buyer's psychology from comparing the aircraft purchase to a House, to comparing that same purchase with another Automobile. Once that psychological shift is made, sales begin to soar among GA aircraft manufacturers, in an economy where people have been living with GA awareness and participation since Junior High School.

You have to bring GA awareness to a much younger audience to set the lifestyle hook early on in their lives. You have to make ownership costs for more akin to purchasing a new higher-end automobile as opposed to buying a new house. You have to compress rental costs for those just getting into the new lifestyle until they can afford to purchase. And, you need to increase competition by increasing the number of new aircraft manufacturing companies and by building new regional and local airports with a strong foundation of full service FBO facilities and ample hanger space.


Current Fuel Costs: A Real Problem

Fossil fuel based solutions are a dying breed. Eventually, that dog will no longer hunt and we will need alternative fuel and powerplant solutions.

The whole fuel thing is a pain in the butt right now and I don't yet know how to solve that problem in the short-term. At some point, we are going to have to get serious about making the shift to a completely different kind of fuel and/or propulsion type/source. At present, there are some powerplant types and designs that have been successfully proofed but have yet to come into broad base use such as Chemical Electric, Electric Ducted Fan, LiPo Cell, Electric Fuel Hybrid, etc.

Personally, I favor the EFH (electric/fuel/hybrid) as a good place to start. I am told that ground ops can be conducted on conventional fuel up through climb-out, with the cruise profile powered by an electric solution at lower rpm (for props) or lower ducted fan settings. Of course, changes in powerplant types will have an impact on aircraft design nomenclatures, so expect a new array of "standard" design aesthetics to be a direct byproduct of the hunt for better power sources.

I think GA does have a very bright future. I just don't see that future looking very much like the older successful paradigm. I see GA taking on a broader and more ubiquitous position within our society as a whole, much the same way that Part 121 operations are conducted today, only at a much more regional level. If done right, it does not have to cost an arm and a leg to get started. But, it will take commitment, vision and a strategic plan of action that no doubt must include Americas Youth at its core.

Instead of General Aviation being a Lifestyle choice, we need to find a way to turn it into a natural part of a very normal Lifestyle. Once that minshare shift is made, you won't have an economic problem in GA anymore.
 
1) Cheap gas
2) Most people need to understand airplanes don't operate on magic and even "little airplanes" are complex and safe machines. As long as people get on something smaller than a 747 and talk about how small it is, this goal will not be achieved.

Really, #1 is the best start.

Won't happen though.
 
1) Cheap gas
2) Most people need to understand airplanes don't operate on magic and even "little airplanes" are complex and safe machines. As long as people get on something smaller than a 747 and talk about how small it is, this goal will not be achieved.

Really, #1 is the best start.

Won't happen though.


I was thinking more along the lines of a long-range paradigm shift. I don't think people who elected to take six (6) years of courses from Junior High through High School graduation in aviation and who at a minimum now have their Private Pilots License, with a good number of them having their Instrument Rating before their freshman year in College, are going to still be fearful of little airplanes. My idea included people who actually want to be a part of GA, and who would want to make it an integral part of their natural lifestyle, as a direct result of having been genuinely exposed and educated to it.

The fuel thing is a problem right now, however. Like I said, it is a pain in the butt right now, until alternative energy sources are embraced and industry is fundamentally established in such a way that yields alternative powerplant designs that are practical (read: allows for longer range GA flights).
 
GA will never be a reliable form of transportation at an affordable level. If you've got less than 100K in an airplane and live anywhere north of Florida, really the best accuracy in arrival time will be +/- 2 days. Spend a bunch more money and you can get it down to +/-4 hours or so, would be my guess, but you're talking serious piston twin or bigger, FIKI equipped.

You've got to convince them that a boat and an airplane are similar, especially for the middle class. You buy a boat to play around with on the weekends in the summer, no reason they couldn't buy an airplane instead.
 
What about cost of insurance and maintenance? Those can be just as bad as the cost of entry or fuel prices.

Also I'm not sure if a aviation course would be tolerated in high school (or at least a proper aviation course anyway). If high schools were to have them they would be the target of lawsuits if/when there is an accident. Even if it were a ground school class I still don't see it working.
 
Gliders don't burn much gas. Or ultralights.

I paid $34/hour for a 152 to do my PPL years back, but it was a pretty crappy 152 then. And the obesity problem makes that moot for many.

I don't think it is purely gas though. I is almost always cheaper for me and 3 friends to fly GA vs. the air lines. There is a pretty good barrier of entry to where that becomes practical though - being at least instrument rated and having a few hundred hours.
 
It's not complicated, it's basic cost vs benefit there's, there's no scheming required to overhaul GA... it's 100% about cost.

The only segment of GA doing OK is high end because to the target customers the cost really doesn't matter.

The average Joe's "benefit" from GA is pleasure flying. $100/hour+ for a little fun is never going to be sustainable for $50,000 household incomes.

Until manufacturers can affordably produce new aircraft (meaning there's not millions in certification costs and an ongoing liability to lawsuits that threaten to wipe them out at every engine hiccup) and a convenient source of low cost fuel is available.... well GA for the common man is going nowhere.

I would've loved to have seen things back when GA airports were blossoming around the country, Cessna was selling 140's to the average Joe and airport cafes were the place to hang out... but I think social values that stimulate that sort of an economy simply dont exist anymore.
 
GA will never be a reliable form of transportation at an affordable level. If you've got less than 100K in an airplane and live anywhere north of Florida, really the best accuracy in arrival time will be +/- 2 days. Spend a bunch more money and you can get it down to +/-4 hours or so, would be my guess, but you're talking serious piston twin or bigger, FIKI equipped.

You've got to convince them that a boat and an airplane are similar, especially for the middle class. You buy a boat to play around with on the weekends in the summer, no reason they couldn't buy an airplane instead.

Here in FL, no reason not to use the boat everyday.
 
Simply make it fun again.

During the "boom" of private aircraft ownership, the types of airplanes that were owned were things like J-3 cubs. And surprise surprise, a lot of those guys have been life long owners/weekend BSers.
VFR buzzing around from your own dirt strip in the back of your house, now that is fun and that can be achieved in smaller, less expensive aircraft that doesn't burn much.

Focus on the flying. The incentive is, "fun".
 
About all we can do is take a personal interest in it. One of the biggest reasons GA has shrunk is loss of personal interest. Cost is a very big factor, but so is relevance. When GA was booming, so was the need for GA. We still need it today, but let's be real. The Internet has replaced a lot of the things that things like GA used to be good at. I once jumped in my 152 and flew 7 hours round trip to get some things I desperately needed. Today, I can order a pair of shoes on the Internet and get them faster then I could, if I jumped in a 152 and went to the originating location myself. GA wasn't always about the $100 Hamburger. GA directly supported what the internet does so well today. We will probably never get back what we had with GA, because without a boom, many kids don't grow up with it and are like "Airplanes are boring and annoying". Those kids become politicians and well, you know what happens next. GA still provides a lot for the businessman, so we have an interest there.

The best thing I have found is flying clubs. There are 2 types of really good flying clubs. There are the clubs that have aircraft with primary owners who take very good care of the airplanes and offer them at or near daily operating cost. You don't find these types of clubs very often. There are also the clubs that have had the benefit of a good pile of startup money and aircraft leased or purchased with incentives and run relatively cheap for the type. I personally thing the future is in flying clubs and LSA.
 
What about cost of insurance and maintenance? Those can be just as bad as the cost of entry or fuel prices.

Also I'm not sure if a aviation course would be tolerated in high school (or at least a proper aviation course anyway). If high schools were to have them they would be the target of lawsuits if/when there is an accident. Even if it were a ground school class I still don't see it working.
http://www.kiae.org/aboutus.htm

https://www.facebook.com/KIAEORG

Not only do they learn to fly, they build airplanes, repair/maintain them, and they participate at Osh. Marvelous program.

MISSION: to improve student learning in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) and create career pathways in aerospace throughout the Commonwealth of Kentucky.
The KIAE's network of 14 high schools are providing students direct experiences in aeronautical engineering, flight, aircraft maintenance, and space systems.


KI1.jpg



KI2.jpg


KI3.jpg
 
There are actually a number of aviation centric alternative high schools and classes, including numerous homebuilt aircraft that have been built in high school programs.
 
And I have worked with these folks:

http://www.tamuseum.org/


It's an afterschool program for inner city kids in Compton, California. Here, hundreds of children, as young as 5 are learning how to fly. They learn about aerodynamics, math and science. They’re coaxed to sit in helicopters and various planes, play with the gears, ask questions, study, and they practice flying on flight simulators until they start training in actual aircraft. Many of them have gone on to getting their PPL and some now also instruct the younger kids there.

This is part of how you keep GA alive. You start with kids. You mentor, teach them and give them the opportunity to fly. You invite them to your FBO and give them a tour and put them to work. You take them to air museums and to where planes are being re-stored. You take them to fly-ins and to flying clubs. You show them the history of aviation and give them a chance. You encourage them and light the spark.
 
As others pointed out flying doesnt have to be expensive. Flying gliders is very cheap. Cubs etc that only burn 4-6 gallons a hour. Cost isnt what drives people away because it can be affordable. If you want to get people flying you have to make them excited to come out and fly. People buy boats because its fun and they can hang out with friends while doing it. You have to get them in that same mindset when it comes to an airplane. Here in Ohio we have the lake erie islands which is always fun for people to fly out for the day to go do.
 
The problem is the entry cost. Yes you can go fly a cub for $30/hour in gas, but you need to buy a $30,000 cub first, hangar it, insure it, and oh yeah... you need to learn to fly it. Other than a few very select locations, nobody has a cub you can walk of the street and learn to fly.

So step one in making GA accessible and increasing participation is to look at the entry... learning to fly.
How does someone do that? Maybe they've had a casual interest for years, then something tugs at it and they decide to go check it out. They drive by the airport and find that every FBO is out of business and theres nobody to talk to. For most, the game is over. For a few persistent people they search the web and call around. They find that yes there are a few options, including a dumpy old Cessna 172 they can get instruction in for $160/hour ($120 airplane/$40 instructor)....for a piece of crap airplane and the student has to put in a lot of work to even get something scheduled because nobody seems to care anyway.

That is the reality at many many airports around the country, and I've heard some variation of the above at least a dozen times from people around here in the last year.

I've written before about how I've been trying to address this myself by operating a frugal flight training operation. Every one of my students right now have told me there is absolutely no way they'd be flying if it weren't for me because it would not be affordable. One guy literally writes me a thank you note every week.
 
The problem is the entry cost. Yes you can go fly a cub for $30/hour in gas, but you need to buy a $30,000 cub first, hangar it, insure it, and oh yeah... you need to learn to fly it. Other than a few very select locations, nobody has a cub you can walk of the street and learn to fly.

So step one in making GA accessible and increasing participation is to look at the entry... learning to fly.
How does someone do that? Maybe they've had a casual interest for years, then something tugs at it and they decide to go check it out. They drive by the airport and find that every FBO is out of business and theres nobody to talk to. For most, the game is over. For a few persistent people they search the web and call around. They find that yes there are a few options, including a dumpy old Cessna 172 they can get instruction in for $160/hour ($120 airplane/$40 instructor)....for a piece of crap airplane and the student has to put in a lot of work to even get something scheduled because nobody seems to care anyway.

That is the reality at many many airports around the country, and I've heard some variation of the above at least a dozen times from people around here in the last year.

I've written before about how I've been trying to address this myself by operating a frugal flight training operation. Every one of my students right now have told me there is absolutely no way they'd be flying if it weren't for me because it would not be affordable. One guy literally writes me a thank you note every week.
Not sure how it is around the rest the country but in Ohio at least Northern Ohio there is a good number of places to learn to fly including 2 with cubs for rent. Also there is a handful of soaring clubs. So around here I wouldn't say that lack of places to learn to fly is a issue. As far as purchase price, hangar, and insurance. Around here on the lake there are thousands of privately owned boats most of which cost much more than $30,000 and docks go for as much as T-Hangars is this area. If it money isn't stopping boaters it won't stop people from flying. I think it is more of painting a flying is fun image. Boaters love the community aspect the docks bring. We need to create that atmosphere around the airport with more fly ins and whatnot. I don't have the perfect solution for getting more people to fly other than we need to make flight training more visible
 
Back
Top