Southwest Suspending hiring through 2024....

Hiboglossi said:
Probably a good hundred or 2.
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That IS trolling. And also, deflection.

If you meant to make a joke of that absurd construct, the joke works only once.

After that, you're just another cult member.

Which is fine if that's what you're here to be. I'm not here to judge; just to point stuff out for you.
 
///AMG said:
This is a great point, and I wasn't trying to say there is a reason to be fearful of the next bad thing. I just have always been financially nervous, for lack of a better term, as my general nature. That being said, I do think there is a portion of the population who thinks the good times will continue forever. The good times may go, and will surely come back. But I hope people have a reasonable plan for the next time there is a bad period. This could probably be said for any industry, if you just look at the last recession as an example. I was very shielded from that one since I was on active duty in the military, and I'd say I was only vaguely aware of it at the time....I wouldn't say I really followed the news about stuff like this much back then as a guy in my mid-20's with no family and no impact to my livelihood. But in hindsight, it was a pretty big deal for a lot of people, and a lot of lines of work. I personally think we dodged it this time, coming out of COVID, but there will be another event. Like you said though, it isn't something we should be putting our energy into stressing about.
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Look at the tech industry. It is boom or bust, and almost nowhere in between.

We are pulling back from an unprecidented hiring shortage and growth, post COVID. WARN notices and furlough letters haven't hit yet and the metal is still moving. Once it is cause for real concern and sadness, we will know. I don't bury my head in the sand and stick my fingers in my ears going lalalalala at current events or the industry I am in, far from it.

There are two absolutes in aviation. 1, is that the industry is cyclical and 2, you can't control it. No amount of forum posting or Fox News watching is gonig to change what's coming. The ONLY thing people do which is so silly, is panic and worry. Hell if most pilots were truly worried about the downturn, THEY WOULD PLAN FOR IT. This is just another avenue for bitchy pilots to bitch lol.
 
Inverted said:
Look at the tech industry. It is boom or bust, and almost nowhere in between.

We are pulling back from an unprecidented hiring shortage and growth, post COVID. WARN notices and furlough letters haven't hit yet and the metal is still moving. Once it is cause for real concern and sadness, we will know. I don't bury my head in the sand and stick my fingers in my ears going lalalalala at current events or the industry I am in, far from it.

There are two absolutes in aviation. 1, is that the industry is cyclical and 2, you can't control it. No amount of forum posting or Fox News watching is gonig to change what's coming. The ONLY thing people do which is so silly, is panic and worry. Hell if most pilots were truly worried about the downturn, THEY WOULD PLAN FOR IT. This is just another avenue for bitchy pilots to bitch lol.
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You are not wrong, empirically.

But... is that a GOOD thing?

Would it not serve normal, average human beings much better NOT be subject to the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune, especially given that we now have the means to prevent those kinds of outrages?

Or, is is just jim dandy that WE ALL now get what some small group of autistic birds "paid" for?
 
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Inverted said:
Hiring is still going on. Retirements are still coming. AA is about to announce an insane aircraft order and they are hiring full bore for retirements. UAL isn't stopping. DAL is slowing but is still hiring a large amount. Atlas, K4, all the regionals etc. are hiring in full swing.
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We should preface for DAL hiring is going to normal numbers. The hiring of last 2 years was not a long term plan. It was a post Covid plan to hire the airline back and add growth. We went from a 14.6 to a 12.4k seniority list back to 17k for a record. Now it’s back to normal (which is funny because the number we plan to ‘slow’ to is still a crazy good hiring year any year pre 2020).

I think a lot of people lost perspective since Covid and are looking for any panic signs in the industry. It seems like the trendy thing in forums, someone desperately wants to predict the music stopping much like a economist predicting the next recession.

Isn’t SW struggling from the MAX • show delivery problems? Delaying hiring for that doesn’t seem like a red flag to me. Nor does much in the markets right now.
 
tcco94 said:
We should preface for DAL hiring is going to normal numbers. The hiring of last 2 years was not a long term plan. It was a post Covid plan to hire the airline back and add growth. We went from a 14.6 to a 12.4k seniority list back to 17k for a record. Now it’s back to normal (which is funny because the number we plan to ‘slow’ to is still a crazy good hiring year any year pre 2020).

I think a lot of people lost perspective since Covid and are looking for any panic signs in the industry. It seems like the trendy thing in forums, someone desperately wants to predict the music stopping much like a economist predicting the next recession.

Isn’t SW struggling from the MAX • show delivery problems? Delaying hiring for that doesn’t seem like a red flag to me. Nor does much in the markets right now.
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Yep exactly. We also aren’t over-hiring for attrition at other airlines. AS and SWA we over-filling classes to account for attrition and all the majors have new contracts so attrition basically grinded to a halt.

The fever pitch of hiring wasn't permanent and honestly not sustainable. Several airlines have their growth plans tied to Boeing aircraft deliveries. Does it sucks that the floodgates close for a bit? Yea. Is it the apocalypse? No.
 
Inverted said:
Yep exactly. We also aren’t over-hiring for attrition at other airlines. AS and SWA we over-filling classes to account for attrition and all the majors have new contracts so attrition basically grinded to a halt.

The fever pitch of hiring wasn't permanent and honestly not sustainable. Several airlines have their growth plans tied to Boeing aircraft deliveries. Does it sucks that the floodgates close for a bit? Yea. Is it the apocalypse? No.
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So you're saying ALPA is right, there is no pilot shortage, and we don't need or want age 67? Sounds about right.
 
Flyinthrew said:
So you're saying ALPA is right, there is no pilot shortage, and we don't need or want age 67? Sounds about right.
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That isn't what I said. I said the airlines that were over-hiring each month to account for attrition, have seen their attrition drop to almost zero.

When you hire 20% more a month than you need because you're years overdue for a CBA and attrition is at a all time high, combined with trying to grow to meet demand, it become and overnight excess when attrition stops and aircraft orders are delayed. Retirements are still coming and pilot hiring will resume.

United will be over 100 airplanes short of their projected fleet size in 2024 so when they adjust hiring to meet that reduction in growth, is that the music stopping?
 
Lol it's just funny to me when things happen at record levels then they slow and people get all negative. Even if for 12 months no one hired, everyone in this profession or trying to get into it is looking very good. It'd take a lot for the next 5 years to not have several more accelerated hiring waves at most big airlines.
 
ChasenSFO said:
Lol it's just funny to me when things happen at record levels then they slow and people get all negative. Even if for 12 months no one hired, everyone in this profession or trying to get into it is looking very good. It'd take a lot for the next 5 years to not have several more accelerated hiring waves at most big airlines.
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RABBLE RABBLE LOST DECADE RABBLE RABBLE
 
Cherokee_Cruiser said:
This generation of pilot influencers. Can’t wait to see the video update.




“They sent me a WARN notice in the mail. They can’t do that. Don’t they understand I was born to fly?”
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But they don't. The autopilot is on from 1000 feet on climb out to 500 feet on approach and they spend the entire time in cruise screwing around on their phone. Children of the magenta line.

Thanks for coming to my Ted Talk.
 
I typically fly to 230 and often down from about 17,000.

As a side note: I hope you fellows in the left seat at the majors enjoy your huge influx of shiny, beautiful 20-somethings who "paid their dues" with six months at a regional after daddy bought their careers for them. Enjoy being flight instructors.

Admittedly, they're probably better than bitter, burned out regional CAs, so idk.

I'm actually enjoying the younger FOs at this point, if I'm being honest, but it's getting kinda exhausting explaining the basic fundamentals of airline flying to green FOs every trip—I really want to make a website or wiki with industry info. Everything from RLA stuff to 117 to bidding, tipping, notification, reserve rules, pay, industry standards, etc.

If people would be interested in contributing content, I might just. We need to mentor this upcoming generation, or the culture will shift (and useful things may be lost).
 
Acrofox said:
I typically fly to 230 and often down from about 17,000.

As a side note: I hope you fellows in the left seat at the majors enjoy your huge influx of shiny, beautiful 20-somethings who "paid their dues" with six months at a regional after daddy bought their careers for them. Enjoy being flight instructors.

Admittedly, they're probably better than bitter, burned out regional CAs, so idk.

I'm actually enjoying the younger FOs at this point, if I'm being honest, but it's getting kinda exhausting explaining the basic fundamentals of airline flying to green FOs every trip—I really want to make a website or wiki with industry info. Everything from RLA stuff to 117 to bidding, tipping, notification, reserve rules, pay, industry standards, etc.

If people would be interested in contributing content, I might just. We need to mentor this upcoming generation, or the culture will shift (and useful things may be lost).
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Some of the newer FOs I fly with are really great. They fly really well, they are sharp, and they are engaged. But some, you can really tell the puppy mill pilots who can't even conceptulize flying a plane for fun, or simply hand flying as a skill. I fly though 18 and I kick it off at matbe 3-5k now days. I used to kick it off higher but the workload it puts on the FOs seems to be getting unmanagable. Maybe that is a function of these new generation of pilots, I dunno...
 
Inverted said:
Some of the newer FOs I fly with are really great. They fly really well, they are sharp, and they are engaged. But some, you can really tell the puppy mill pilots who can't even conceptulize flying a plane for fun, or simply hand flying as a skill. I fly though 18 and I kick it off at matbe 3-5k now days. I used to kick it off higher but the workload it puts on the FOs seems to be getting unmanagable. Maybe that is a function of these new generation of pilots, I dunno...
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Kick off AP and AT? Some will kick off AP, and that’s only half the equation. And that’s too much to manage for some.
 
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