Postal Service chooses UPS over FedEx.

[Hacker15e]

Did I miss a thread talking about this one yet? Been a pretty fun week watching some pilots at Purple melt down over this one.

What's the take from Brown brethren?

New contract makes UPS the primary air cargo provider for the US Postal Service

 

[SurferLucas]

UPS announced hiring 300 in order to cover the USPS contract

 

[JEP]

I think part of the problem was the first day that many saw this news was April 1st.

 

[form810]

If this is true... Given the fact that Louis DeJoy (Oh, the irony!) is still the chair of the board of our most revered and Constitutionally-protected (Article I, Section 8, Clause 7) Federal branch... Yup! I've got questions. I want holdings info to start with.

Where, oh where is the "strict scrutiny" and "originalism" when it's actually needed (and not just used by someone to get what he wants when he wants it)?

 

[DE727UPS]

UPS announced hiring 300 in order to cover the USPS contract

They just gave the top 300 a years pay to retire cause they were overstaffed. Now they are hiring. I guess getting rid of some guys off the top and making room at the bottom makes sense.

 

[Hacker15e]

It is going to be interesting to see how it shakes out; it is going to result in major changes at both companies simply due to the revenue and volumes/schedules that are endemic to the USPS contract.

If you look past the "sky is falling" rhetoric at Purple, there's a pretty logical assessment that says two decades of the Postal Contract has resulted in substantial route and gauge inefficiencies to the system. It is essentially the same rationale FX used in 2019 to sever ties with Amazon...business which UPS happily picked up.

What's my Purple Jetcareers MEC say? I haven't kept good track of who has gone to Purple from JC in the last 6-9 years, but...

@wayway8 @statusseeker1 @mikecweb @CK @GypsyPilot @ERfly @Avalon781ML

 

[mikecweb]

I haven't had the same "fun" watching and listening to my coworkers melt down over it. People are scared. Families will be affected. The trajectory of this company is very concerning.

 

[CoffeeIcePapers]

I haven't had the same "fun" watching and listening to my coworkers melt down over it. People are scared. Families will be affected. The trajectory of this company is very concerning.

Yeah, I don’t know what kind of sick person would relish in the fact that people’s livelihoods are on the line.

 

[Roger Roger]

Yeah, I don’t know what kind of sick person would relish in the fact that people’s livelihoods are on the line.

My lesson of the week is that there are some real weirdos in this business

 

[Hacker15e]

Yeah, I don’t know what kind of sick person would relish in the fact that people’s livelihoods are on the line.

My lesson of the week is that there are some real weirdos in this business

You guys know I'm a Purple pilot, right?

And, no, my comment isn't in any way whatsoever "relish[ing] the fact that people's livelihoods are on the line". My paycheck and livelihood comes from the exact same place as the people I'm commenting on, and I have precisely the same risk as they do.

I'm talking about being amused at individuals who were making comments based on emotional kneejerk reactions and not on logic or facts.

Guess I'm just a "real weirdo" that I'm interested in actual information rather than making wild assumptions.

But none of that was the point of my post.

 

[grchase90]

I just hit reboot in JAN after 5 years at purple. My “take” from the outside looking in, is that the loss of the USPS contract was shocking but not unexpected. Purple management still hasn’t said anything to the pilots about possible furloughs. The union threatened them last July… The future looks bright for Purple corp. Lots of money will continue to be made. Do they need as many planes? Probably not… Do they need as many pilots… Probably not…. Both problems can probably be solved by retirements over the next few years.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[jtrain609]

You guys know I'm a Purple pilot, right?

And, no, my comment isn't in any way whatsoever "relish[ing] the fact that people's livelihoods are on the line". My paycheck and livelihood comes from the exact same place as the people I'm commenting on, and I have precisely the same risk as they do.

I'm talking about being amused at individuals who were making comments based on emotional kneejerk reactions and not on logic or facts.

Guess I'm just a "real weirdo" that I'm interested in actual information rather than making wild assumptions.

But none of that was the point of my post.

The entire industry of operating aircraft is in flux, and has been for a few years now. For the Expanse fans, it's another churn, and we've learned all airlines are Baltimore.

FedEx isn't alone. Spirit has a bunch of debt coming due. United is under an FAA audit. JetBlue just had a corporate raider take a major investment in the airline. Southwest almost crashed an airplane. Alaska lost a door in flight.

I'll admit that when Icahn showed up at the door I panicked. It's a reasonable initial response given his record. But once I was able to sit with it for a little while, which I think is what Hacker is asking is all to do, I realized it'll work out how it works out.

That comes from a place of having been in this industry long enough to look at it and says, "Yup, it does that sometimes."

And if you're going to punch out, figure out objective criteria ahead of time so that you don't have to do it on the fly. I know what my criteria is for doing so at my airline based on my risk tolerance and my seniority position. Make no mistake, my career seniority progression will be ruined if I bail now, but it might be the only choice.

 

[killbilly]

And if you're going to punch out, figure out objective criteria ahead of time so that you don't have to do it on the fly. I know what my criteria is for doing so at my airline based on my risk tolerance and my seniority position. Make no mistake, my career seniority progression will be ruined if I bail now, but it might be the only choice.

You raised this spectre so I'm going (apologetically) put you on the spot - because I feel like examples would be helpful to me (and potentially others) facing something like this.

You're basing punch out on your risk tolerance and seniority: practically speaking, what does that look like? A drop in seniority below a certain percentage point? That makes sense. Risk tolerance? How are you measuring that?

And I'm asking both of these completely in good faith - not rhetorically at all. I'll ask you again privately after I hit "post reply" but I have a sense that others are in the same boat. Might even deserve its own thread: "Risk assessment, tolerance and mitigation as a pilot."

 

[Roger Roger]

You guys know I'm a Purple pilot, right?

And, no, my comment isn't in any way whatsoever "relish[ing] the fact that people's livelihoods are on the line". My paycheck and livelihood comes from the exact same place as the people I'm commenting on, and I have precisely the same risk as they do.

I'm talking about being amused at individuals who were making comments based on emotional kneejerk reactions and not on logic or facts.

Guess I'm just a "real weirdo" that I'm interested in actual information rather than making wild assumptions.

But none of that was the point of my post.

I’m not at all talking about you and I apologize if it looked like I was. There’s been plenty of stuff going around about it from other sources that IS like what coffeeice was talking about, and that plus other stuff I encountered this week is what I was referring to. I’m well aware that you’re purple, and I sincerely hope things work out better for you and all the rest of the JC Purple brethren.

 

[derg]

Yeah, I don’t know what kind of sick person would relish in the fact that people’s livelihoods are on the line.

There are always those people.

When SouthernJets was having a challenging time, there was a user who would come to the forum simply to troll me. I wonder where that moron is today?

 

[JustinS]

You raised this spectre so I'm going (apologetically) put you on the spot - because I feel like examples would be helpful to me (and potentially others) facing something like this.

You're basing punch out on your risk tolerance and seniority: practically speaking, what does that look like? A drop in seniority below a certain percentage point? That makes sense. Risk tolerance? How are you measuring that?

And I'm asking both of these completely in good faith - not rhetorically at all. I'll ask you again privately after I hit "post reply" but I have a sense that others are in the same boat. Might even deserve its own thread: "Risk assessment, tolerance and mitigation as a pilot."

I think everyone’s “risk tolerance” is very different and deeply personal/specific to their situation. I know for some the risk tolerance line has been crossed and are causing pilots to leave purple.

 

[killbilly]

I think everyone’s “risk tolerance” is very different and deeply personal/specific to their situation. I know for some the risk tolerance line has been crossed and are causing pilots to leave purple.

Fair point. Perhaps I’m asking a not-useful question then.

 

[mikecweb]

Fair point. Perhaps I’m asking a not-useful question then.

It’s a good question. Just hard to quantify. I’m 40. Young enough to leave purple. I’m also a widebody captain with 40% below me. I also hope to be retired well before 65. Everyone is different.

 

[ERfly]

You guys know I'm a Purple pilot, right?

And, no, my comment isn't in any way whatsoever "relish[ing] the fact that people's livelihoods are on the line". My paycheck and livelihood comes from the exact same place as the people I'm commenting on, and I have precisely the same risk as they do.

I'm talking about being amused at individuals who were making comments based on emotional kneejerk reactions and not on logic or facts.

Guess I'm just a "real weirdo" that I'm interested in actual information rather than making wild assumptions.

But none of that was the point of my post.

I haven't had the same "fun" watching and listening to my coworkers melt down over it. People are scared. Families will be affected. The trajectory of this company is very concerning.

As Mike has noticed with the guys he flies with, I'm in the camp of "scared". I'm not freaking out or losing my sh*t just yet, but I'm certainly not whistling past the graveyard.

I left a legacy carrier after almost 9 years to come to what I still feel is my dream job. I had always wanted to be here and I'm still thankful every day I'm here. But, at the end of the day, I'm junior.

I've researched and watched FedEx for over a decade and enough before I got the opportunity to come here. I was so excited the day I started class...walking into the AOTC Auditorium and seeing my ID sitting there with an MD-11 lanyard on it, My dream had come true. I was flying a most righteous airplane that I always wanted to fly, painted in the colors of an airline that I had to wanted to fly for for years! I remember smiling as former ACP MG stood in front of us and told us how many FedEx was going to hire. I remember the feeling of how this wasn't my former company, run by accountants (and Lorenzo in khakis) and driven by stock price and D-0. I remember thinking how this was going to be so different.

Today? I'm not so sure. Do I still love my job and do I still love coming to work? You bet your ass I do! Is this the airline that I researched, jump seated on and fell in love with? Absolutely not. I'm watching dysfunction at the union level that nearly rivals the 2 most dysfunction unions on the planet (both of which I came from...USAPA and APA). I'm watching it all play out in real time and when I try to speak advice to people making the same mistakes I've made before, it falls on deaf ears and I'm basically told to shut up and color (gee...where have I heard that before?).

Will the corporation continue to make money hand over fist? Of course it will. Will it do with pilots? I'm not so sure of that.

I, too, want actual information. Unfortunately, Hacks Cross isn't providing any and what I heard on Friday from the SIG isn't giving me warm and fuzzies. I'm almost 44. Could I start over again? Sure. Have I thought about it in the last couple of days? I'm not going to lie that the thought of moving my employment up the road to Louisville hasn't been on my mind, but I'm not ready to pull that trigger just yet.

I have 2 and half years of seniority here. I have around 600-ish people underneath me. My take? End of the day? I'm junior and I'm scared.

 

[jtrain609]

You raised this spectre so I'm going (apologetically) put you on the spot - because I feel like examples would be helpful to me (and potentially others) facing something like this.

You're basing punch out on your risk tolerance and seniority: practically speaking, what does that look like? A drop in seniority below a certain percentage point? That makes sense. Risk tolerance? How are you measuring that?

And I'm asking both of these completely in good faith - not rhetorically at all. I'll ask you again privately after I hit "post reply" but I have a sense that others are in the same boat. Might even deserve its own thread: "Risk assessment, tolerance and mitigation as a pilot."

I'm in the same boat as Mike, around 60% and a captain in our highest paying fleet. If I were to dip below 80% system seniority, the airline is likely doomed. I don't think any airline besides Airways has ever furloughed more than 20% of their seniority list and survived to talk about it later.

As for objective criteria, I'm looking for unencumbered assets to be sold off and then the profits to be pocketed by Icahn. It's a standard corporate raider approach. So let's say he sells T5 to a company he owns, and then leases it back to us, that will be concerning. Selling European slots would be concerning. Selling the fleet and leasing it back to us would be concerning. Basically stripping the equity out of the airline, and I'm looking for the big ticket items that I just listed.

Also like Mike, my career wouldn't be over, but it wouldn't be good either. It'd take me 14 years to get my current system seniority back, and 12 years at United. The income losses and the 401K contribution losses would be in the millions, to say nothing of the risk of being at the bottom of a seniority list again. I've rolled those dice 3 times so far, and I don't care to do it again.