Furlough Estimates

[Roger Roger]

Meh. We were through this with quinine and before that faprivir or whatever the other antiviral they tried was. Just like the nutbag “we already have herd immunity!” Theories it would be great if true but until it’s proven I’m skeptical.

 

[Kingairer]

Of course everything with heavy doses of skepticism. But there isnt time for full proven trials, so when good results come, its encouraging. ANything is better than "You have this, you're getting worse, and we have nothing for you. "

 

[saxman]

I’d really like to see if I’ve already had it. Late January I was in Westchester County for a few days. A week or later I was in Atlanta for recurrent and got a mild fever, cough, and sometimes nausea. Urgent care just said it was allergies, which I usually get once a year, so didn’t think much of it. I called in sick for my sim. Now I’m thinking I might have had it.


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[GypsyPilot]

I’d really like to see if I’ve already had it. Late January I was in Westchester County for a few days. A week or later I was in Atlanta for recurrent and got a mild fever, cough, and sometimes nausea. Urgent care just said it was allergies, which I usually get once a year, so didn’t think much of it. I called in sick for my sim. Now I’m thinking I might have had it.


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Hopefully the US gets testing widely available soon. I've been traveling all over Southern China and Asia since this thing started, and naturally am quite curious as well. I've received numerous (mandatory) tests for it the past few weeks, and all were negative for active virus.

My wife and I both did the blood draw antibody test today, and find out tomorrow if we've ever had it. I feel like I'm far more likely to have been exposed to it at some point than most people, but I'll still be surprised if I have antibodies. Definitely a good thing for most pilots and FAs to check though.

 

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

Parker said AA was seeing an uptick in bookings 90+ days out. Then again, 1 booking from 0 bookings is an uptick.

Parker is the idiot who said in 2017 that airlines would never lose money again. That there would be good and bad years, but nothing like after 9/11.

See? I do make fun of airlines other than DL.

 

[chrisreedrules]

Parker is the idiot who said in 2017 that airlines would never lose money again. That there would be good and bad years, but nothing like after 9/11.

See? I do make fun of airlines other than DL.

In fairness the “litmus test” for worst case scenario was another 9/11. This is much, much worse. Hard to imagine after the years of being wildly profitable despite themselves that a little virus would come along and change our whole society... Especially considering our response to this one is also orders of magnitude different than previous viral threats.

 

[AAPalmTree]

Parker is the idiot who said in 2017 that airlines would never lose money again. That there would be good and bad years, but nothing like after 9/11.

See? I do make fun of airlines other than DL.

I don’t know what to tell you if you don’t see the difference between a subjective and an objective comment. I’m pretty sure with your background you could calculate the centroid of a compound shape by using geometric decomposition but you’ve made some really dumb observations on this forum. There is a difference.

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

Funny how SWA having a single fleet type was paraded as a strength for years, then with the max debacle it was a crippling weakness. Now it’s a strength again.

You mean there isn’t actually a bulletproof business model? I’m shocked!

If a drug became available, that couldnt cure, but could nearly assure you wouldnt die from it, would that change anyones perception?

Not really. The reason for furloughs won’t be the virus. The long term economic damage is what is going to cause the furloughs. People who think we’re going to quickly bounce back from this are delusional.

I just hope if I end up in the hospital, my doctor is on the bleeding edge with regard to these therapeutics. Don't want the doctor who isn't keeping up with the latest potential treatments

Being a union rep ruined me for this. After seeing how incompetent so many pilots are, I don’t trust any professionals any more. I’m always wondering whether my doctor/lawyer/dentist/accountant/whatever is their profession’s equivalent of the idiots I used to represent in the chief pilot‘s office.

 

[Box hauler]

You mean there isn’t actually a bulletproof business model? I’m shocked!



Not really. The reason for furloughs won’t be the virus. The long term economic damage is what is going to cause the furloughs. People who think we’re going to quickly bounce back from this are delusional.



Being a union rep ruined me for this. After seeing how incompetent so many pilots are, I don’t trust any professionals any more. I’m always wondering whether my doctor/lawyer/dentist/accountant/whatever is their profession’s equivalent of the idiots I used to represent in the chief pilot‘s office.

You sound pretty miserable about 90 percent of the time. Being that pessimistic sounds exhausting.

 

[chrisreedrules]

You mean there isn’t actually a bulletproof business model? I’m shocked!



Not really. The reason for furloughs won’t be the virus. The long term economic damage is what is going to cause the furloughs. People who think we’re going to quickly bounce back from this are delusional.



Being a union rep ruined me for this. After seeing how incompetent so many pilots are, I don’t trust any professionals any more. I’m always wondering whether my doctor/lawyer/dentist/accountant/whatever is their profession’s equivalent of the idiots I used to represent in the chief pilot‘s office.

Yup.

 

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

In fairness the “litmus test” for worst case scenario was another 9/11. This is much, much worse. Hard to imagine after the years of being wildly profitable despite themselves that a little virus would come along and change our whole society... Especially considering our response to this one is also orders of magnitude different than previous viral threats.

I’m just pissed at the rampant activity of airline stock buybacks. And all airlines did it. Yours, mine, Delta, all of them. How is it that we individuals are taught to have a 6 month emergency fund (meaning enough for 6 months with 0 income), yet airlines aren’t required to? Airlines are a public company being traded on the stock market but they are a utility. Every airline should be required to have at least a 6-9 month cash on hand to last a 0 revenue environment. As it is, most nearly all airlines used the excess cash in stock buybacks to drive up the stock price to reward management and shareholders. And of course tell labor they can't afford to pay then more.

 

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

I don’t know what to tell you if you don’t see the difference between a subjective and an objective comment. I’m pretty sure with your background you could calculate the centroid of a compound shape by using geometric decomposition but you’ve made some really dumb observations on this forum. There is a difference.

See above post.

 

[AAPalmTree]

See above post.

Fascinating, but not even close to what I was talking about.

 

[drunkenbeagle]

I’m just pissed at the rampant activity of airline stock buybacks. And all airlines did it. Yours, mine, Delta, all of them. How is it that we individuals are taught to have a 6 month emergency fund (meaning enough for 6 months with 0 income), yet airlines aren’t required to? Airlines are a public company being traded on the stock market but they are a utility. Every airline should be required to have at least a 6-9 month cash on hand to last a 0 revenue environment.

Well, how would that actually work though? For any company - if it sits on a pile of money, someone else will just buy the company and take the money. Or buy enough of the company shares to install their own board directors and then replace management with a new team that will give them the money. Basically Carl Icahn's whole business model.

 

[Doug Masters]

I mean, seriously... how delusional is he? Is he just not paying attention to the fact we are rapidly approaching 20,000 more deaths In ONE month of COVID-19 than we did for the entire H1N1 epidemic? “BuT hAvE yOu SeEn mY ApPrOvAl RaTiNgS?”

But muh H1N1

 

[Roger Roger]

But muh H1N1
View attachment 52674

But they didn’t die of covid, they died of double pneumonia!

 

[BEEF SUPREME]

Can’t speak for any other airlines, but regarding Alaska, there are no retirements to speak of, and even if an early out is offered knowing management here it’ll be a joke and likely not even worth considering. In addition the media (both sides) will continue sensationalizing things any way they can, further slowing any recovery. I think it’s going to result in a startling number of furloughs at Alaska, my guess as of today is 35-40%

Presently its looking to be 50%. Hopefully this will improve until October 1 to get to your numbers.

 

[KLB]

What a lot of the medical people are doing is changing before going home then staying away from everyone till they have showered and changed a second time.
If I was still flying (took a 50 hpm leave) I'd bring sweats/sneakers in a separate plastic bag.. Change in a restroom. Get home keep distance till showered and changed a second time. After this it's a matter of washing your hands all the time and being careful with sneezes, coughs and sniffles. Sleep on the couch/floor/cot. It isn't perfect, but, better than nothing.

I would add taking your close directly to the laundry and washing them. It may help not mixing your work laindry with the family's laundry. That way you're not contaminating the laundry basket.

 

[chrisreedrules]

I would add taking your close directly to the laundry and washing them. It may help not mixing your work laindry with the family's laundry. That way you're not contaminating the laundry basket.

You do know that the virus doesn’t survive on surfaces that long right? Most viruses don’t. Even on clothes that’s a far stretch. Sure it survived on some surfaces under ideal conditions but that is far from the norm.

 

[chrisreedrules]

I’m just pissed at the rampant activity of airline stock buybacks. And all airlines did it. Yours, mine, Delta, all of them. How is it that we individuals are taught to have a 6 month emergency fund (meaning enough for 6 months with 0 income), yet airlines aren’t required to? Airlines are a public company being traded on the stock market but they are a utility. Every airline should be required to have at least a 6-9 month cash on hand to last a 0 revenue environment. As it is, most nearly all airlines used the excess cash in stock buybacks to drive up the stock price to reward management and shareholders. And of course tell labor they can't afford to pay then more.

As crazy as it sounds airlines (and businesses in general) can’t be too attractive on paper because then they become a target for a hostile takeover.