Furlough Estimates

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

IMO (which obviously holds 0 value) but this will be an elongated U shaped recovery. Airlines are not going back to pre-Covid levels anytime soon. But certainly not 8-10 years. Assuming vaccine in 18 months or this virus runs its course. I would think 2023 for back to the level of flying we had.

Which boils down to the next point: it’s long enough that furloughs (and probably massive) are financially justifiable for the airlines.

 

[derg]

It takes 24 months to ’break even‘ on a furloughed pilot.

Luckily, we (industry) will have a combination of the usual retirements, early retirements and those that say “eff this” similar to 9/11.

I really enjoy my job, work for a great company, enjoy the extra-curricular activities that allow me to travel around the world even more, but at the end of the day if there was an early retirement program, I qualified for it, and I could financially afford It, I would.

I’ve already doe the “Gloom and Doom”, rebuild, enhance, grow and tell another round of potential two-year captains to “Enjoy the wave, but after 9/11, COVID-19, it can basically come to a halt overnight”. I’ve done that twice already and avoiding the third would be fabulous.

Don’t interpret that as anything negative, it’s just that I got started in 121 fairly young, have seen the ups and downs and at the end of the day, I’d rather be enjoyIng the world @A80TRACON style.

 

[AAPalmTree]

It takes 24 months to ’break even‘ on a furloughed pilot.

(Non-derogatory honest internet question)

Where did you come up with this?

 

[L-16B]

66% as of yesterday. Pretty sure the APA lists are up to date with the guys who took the permanent leaves gone.

Don’t think they have been updated. The guy that runs myaacareer.com has updated it. You’re around 9500ish.

 

[AAPalmTree]

Don’t think they have been updated. The guy that runs myaacareer.com has updated it. You’re around 9500ish.

I don’t see a total pilot count.

 

[L-16B]

I don’t see a total pilot count.

Click the right side “seniority tool” and once you enter all the info it will have a todays seniority number which takes into account all of the permanent leaves. Mine is about 1275 numbers lower than my DECS seniority.

Edit: if you meant total pilots systemwide head count I’m not sure.

 

[AAPalmTree]

Click the right side “seniority tool” and once you enter all the info it will have a todays seniority number which takes into account all of the permanent leaves. Mine is about 1275 numbers lower than my DECS seniority.

Edit: if you meant total pilots systemwide head count I’m not sure.

Yeah, seniority wide. It does give a percent of total. I guess I could back my way into it if I paid more attention in math class.

 

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

United says demand for travel is 'essentially zero' and signals layoffs

United Airlines is making the deepest cuts yet announced by a US airline, reducing its May and June schedule by about 90% of what was originally planned at the start of the year.

www.cnn.com

 

[GaTechKid]

Remember, those that say they know really... uhh... don’t.

In a thread asking for speculation, I didn't think I had to write a disclaimer. If I knew all the answers I would have sold all my taxable investments on Feb 23 instead of taking a 60% bath.

 

[GaTechKid]

(Non-derogatory honest internet question)

Where did you come up with this?

Here's a good analysis of the cost of furloughing.
The Cost of Staff Reductions

 

[AAPalmTree]

Don’t think they have been updated. The guy that runs myaacareer.com has updated it. You’re around 9500ish.

Warning: public school/public math
He’s
9,500 @ 66%
9500/.66= ~14,400 pilots

 

[AAPalmTree]

Here's a good analysis of the cost of furloughing.
The Cost of Staff Reductions

Thanks!

 

[Kingairer]

. If I ***were a US Senator**** I would have sold all my taxable investments on Feb 23 instead of taking a 60% bath.

 

[mastermags]

All these guesses are moot unless airlines actually start selling tickets again in the next three or four months.

 

[jtrain609]

All these guesses are moot unless airlines actually start selling tickets again in the next three or four months.

Exactly. If they don't we'll all get furloughed.

 

[learhawkerbe400]

Don’t think they have been updated. The guy that runs myaacareer.com has updated it. You’re around 9500ish.

You’re literally the person who told me I’m 66% so it’s your fault

 

[AAPalmTree]

All these guesses are moot unless airlines actually start selling tickets again in the next three or four months.

Parker said AA was seeing an uptick in bookings 90+ days out. Then again, 1 booking from 0 bookings is an uptick.

 

[mikecweb]

In a thread asking for speculation, I didn't think I had to write a disclaimer. If I knew all the answers I would have sold all my taxable investments on Feb 23 instead of taking a 60% bath.

You lost 60%? You either need a new advisor or need to bring on an advisor.

 

[derg]

In a thread asking for speculation, I didn't think I had to write a disclaimer. If I knew all the answers I would have sold all my taxable investments on Feb 23 instead of taking a 60% bath.

60%? Hot damn! I was bellyaching about a 4% but I have a financial advisor.

 

[Roger Roger]

Parker said AA was seeing an uptick in bookings 90+ days out. Then again, 1 booking from 0 bookings is an uptick.

Are they still running covidfefe free rescheduling specials? If so I would imagine that people are just going to keep rolling those until they think they’re good to go.