Furlough Estimates

IMO (which obviously holds 0 value) but this will be an elongated U shaped recovery. Airlines are not going back to pre-Covid levels anytime soon. But certainly not 8-10 years. Assuming vaccine in 18 months or this virus runs its course. I would think 2023 for back to the level of flying we had.

Which boils down to the next point: it’s long enough that furloughs (and probably massive) are financially justifiable for the airlines.
 
It takes 24 months to ’break even‘ on a furloughed pilot.

Luckily, we (industry) will have a combination of the usual retirements, early retirements and those that say “eff this” similar to 9/11.

I really enjoy my job, work for a great company, enjoy the extra-curricular activities that allow me to travel around the world even more, but at the end of the day if there was an early retirement program, I qualified for it, and I could financially afford It, I would.

I’ve already doe the “Gloom and Doom”, rebuild, enhance, grow and tell another round of potential two-year captains to “Enjoy the wave, but after 9/11, COVID-19, it can basically come to a halt overnight”. I’ve done that twice already and avoiding the third would be fabulous.

Don’t interpret that as anything negative, it’s just that I got started in 121 fairly young, have seen the ups and downs and at the end of the day, I’d rather be enjoyIng the world @A80TRACON style.
 
I don’t see a total pilot count.
Click the right side “seniority tool” and once you enter all the info it will have a todays seniority number which takes into account all of the permanent leaves. Mine is about 1275 numbers lower than my DECS seniority.

Edit: if you meant total pilots systemwide head count I’m not sure.
 
Click the right side “seniority tool” and once you enter all the info it will have a todays seniority number which takes into account all of the permanent leaves. Mine is about 1275 numbers lower than my DECS seniority.

Edit: if you meant total pilots systemwide head count I’m not sure.

Yeah, seniority wide. It does give a percent of total. I guess I could back my way into it if I paid more attention in math class.
 
In a thread asking for speculation, I didn't think I had to write a disclaimer. If I knew all the answers I would have sold all my taxable investments on Feb 23 instead of taking a 60% bath.

60%? Hot damn! I was bellyaching about a 4% but I have a financial advisor.
 
Parker said AA was seeing an uptick in bookings 90+ days out. Then again, 1 booking from 0 bookings is an uptick.
Are they still running covidfefe free rescheduling specials? If so I would imagine that people are just going to keep rolling those until they think they’re good to go.
 
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