Furlough Estimates

mastermags said:
Funny how SWA having a single fleet type was paraded as a strength for years, then with the max debacle it was a crippling weakness. Now it’s a strength again.
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Yup. I was thinking the same. An airline like Delta with so many fleet types, it’s gotta be hell expensive to retrain to so many fleet types. All Southwest has to do is train a few downgrades which only takes a few days?


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I’m going to be the pessimist and say I believe we will see furloughs as deep as 30-40% of the list at most carriers. My reasoning:

Demand will remain depressed for a long time. 9/11 saw a 35% drop in demand and it took almost 3 years for it to recover. That also wasn’t coupled with an economic crisis like what we will see in the “recovery” from this. Summer 2020 is completely shot, and I think Summer 2021 won’t be great either. The airlines will be a fraction of their size until we have a vaccine or effective therapeutics. Even after that the economic fallout will take years to repair.

The “cost” of furloughs not making sense under 24 months doesn’t really seem to apply here. With companies only operating 20-30% of their schedule, training wont take away from the necessary numbers to operate the network. The majority of pilots going through training would be getting paid to do nothing anyway so the reduction in force churn will not cause as much extra cost. Airlines will continue to lose money for the next few years. They will also all be downgraded to junk ratings and will be borrowing at extremely high rates to keep the lights on. Short-term reduction in payroll might be seen as an optimal strategy to improve cash flow until demand grows even if over the life of the furlough it costs more.

The airline bailout is nice and gives us some time, but in the grand scheme of things it’s a hello kitty bandaid on a ruptured aorta. Airlines will be taking drastic actions to survive this fall and its not going to be fun for any of us.

I know people think we shouldn’t be saying numbers of how many will be furloughed, but I believe that unwarranted optimism could wind up hurting us in the long run. We need to face reality and brace ourselves for massive job loss. What’s coming next is the full court press for concessions. If we are mentally prepared for the reality of job loss, it will make it easier to say no to whatever ridiculous stuff we are all going to be asked to give up in exchange for a "promise" of no furloughs. Even with the prosperous recent times, we have still not recaptured the losses from post 9/11 concessions and bankruptcy. Fear is a powerful motivator, things we give up now we may never see restored again in our careers.

TLDR: If I get furloughed and I have to be recalled to flying an A320 for $55 per hour I’m gonna be pissed.
 
The election is one huge thing we have going for our industry. If you think Trump will allow 10,000’s of thousands of pilots to be furloughed right before the election you’re crazy. If he wins he won’t allow it after. If someone else wins they don’t want that happening as they take office.
 
AAPalmTree said:
The election is one huge thing we have going for our industry. If you think Trump will allow 10,000’s of thousands of pilots to be furloughed right before the election you’re crazy. If he wins he won’t allow it after. If someone else wins they don’t want that happening as they take office.
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I'm curious as to why you think anyone in the general population would give a shart about airline pilots in an economic depression
 
Can’t speak for any other airlines, but regarding Alaska, there are no retirements to speak of, and even if an early out is offered knowing management here it’ll be a joke and likely not even worth considering. In addition the media (both sides) will continue sensationalizing things any way they can, further slowing any recovery. I think it’s going to result in a startling number of furloughs at Alaska, my guess as of today is 35-40%
 
If a drug became available, that couldnt cure, but could nearly assure you wouldnt die from it, would that change anyones perception?
 
Reserve4Ever said:
Can’t speak for any other airlines, but regarding Alaska, there are no retirements to speak of, and even if an early out is offered knowing management here it’ll be a joke and likely not even worth considering. In addition the media (both sides) will continue sensationalizing things any way they can, further slowing any recovery. I think it’s going to result in a startling number of furloughs at Alaska, my guess as of today is 35-40%
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100%. These 30,000 people were just killed by the media. I'm so aghast, that I believe we should get rid of the Free press, and eliminate the first amendment altogether.
 
Kingairer said:
If a drug became available, that couldnt cure, but could nearly assure you wouldnt die from it, would that change anyones perception?
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Yes but my expectations of medical science are even more pessimistic than my expectations for the airline industry, which are currently abysmal.
 
I just hope if I end up in the hospital, my doctor is on the bleeding edge with regard to these therapeutics. Don't want the doctor who isn't keeping up with the latest potential treatments


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future pilot said:
Speaking of...

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This is what I was referencing. If we can get wider testing, which would seem inevitable, and we can get a drug that could nearly remove the fear of death in most people, can we start getting back to normal? I sure hope so. It is also a reminder of how new this all is. Although it feels like ive been locked up for 6 months, its really only been a month since the govt got serious about shutting things down. Im hopeful that with another month of drug trials and successes, that we can alleviate some fear. I've heard that some form of the vaccine could be ready as early as the fall this year for our medical professionals who seem to be some of the most vulnerable healthy people with widespread vaccine by mid 2021.
 
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