Furlough Estimates

ZapBrannigan said:
All I know is that once again my Aviation Management / Flight Technology bachelor's degree is the biggest waste of time and money imaginable. It has provided me with exactly zero marketable skills for 3, now going on 4 furloughs.


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If it makes you feel any better, 90% of the other degrees wouldn’t make you any more marketable. Companies are looking for degrees from 22 year old graduates who want entry level jobs. From 50 year olds looking for real jobs, they’re looking for real world experience. A degree in accounting that you hasn’t used your whole life would be just about as useless.
 
SlumTodd_Millionaire said:
If it makes you feel any better, 90% of the other degrees wouldn’t make you any more marketable. Companies are looking for degrees from 22 year old graduates who want entry level jobs. From 50 year olds looking for real jobs, they’re looking for real world experience. A degree in accounting that you hasn’t used your whole life would be just about as useless.
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No. Actually that doesn't make me feel any better. Trying to figure out how to keep food on the table and avoid having to move the family to a van.
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ZapBrannigan said:
All I know is that once again my Aviation Management / Flight Technology bachelor's degree is the biggest waste of time and money imaginable. It has provided me with exactly zero marketable skills for 3, now going on 4 furloughs.


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Kind of like any liberal arts degree: you’ll be a shoe-in at any coffee establishment. I’m pretty sure the air conditioning panel on the 737 is exactly the same as an espresso machine.
 
-250 CAs / FOs Airbus, +250 CAs/FOs Bowing. Effective Nov 1st. Over 8 yrs on the Bus but now no more. I will sorely miss Fifi. :eek2:

No furloughs yet. It figures since everyone is sitting around for the summer may as well have people be forced off the Bus. When it comes time to downgrade/furlough, there will be a smaller pool of Bus pilots to worry about cross Fleet training.
 
ZapBrannigan said:
No. Actually that doesn't make me feel any better. Trying to figure out how to keep food on the table and avoid having to move the family to a van.
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I’m just a lowly regional CA but he’s right, my masters degree is pretty worthless because of no experience. Anyway, my wife and I have started doing Instacart. It’s just a matter of time before she loses her job and who knows what is going to happen to me. In seven or so hours I can bring in about $170. It varies based on tips. It’s not much, but it’s something.
 
ZapBrannigan said:
No. Actually that doesn't make me feel any better. Trying to figure out how to keep food on the table and avoid having to move the family to a van.
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I’m sorry, I honestly have no suggestions. The doomers have managed to destroy just about every industry in one fell swoop. There’s nowhere to run this time. It ain’t post-9/11. This is something far worse.
 
AAPalmTree said:
The election is one huge thing we have going for our industry. If you think Trump will allow 10,000’s of thousands of pilots to be furloughed right before the election you’re crazy. If he wins he won’t allow it after. If someone else wins they don’t want that happening as they take office.
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If we get furloughed its for no other reason than the airlines shedding dollar weight (and rightly so). Trump or any other person in government doesn't have anything to do with it. It's a shame that blame goes around and it's nothing but a business decision
 
Trump had his airline die. His brother, a TWA pilot, died of alcoholism. I’m a Trump supporter (fire suit and my level 4 vest on), does he want to keep airlines alive? I think he does. It’s not a dark or political joke, air travel is crucial to more than the hospitality industry (that we currently, and predominately, house), it’s at the root of our society. Travel is a major commerce aspect to our GDP, global interests, and security. It’s also a huge aspect of our way of life. Folks all around the country pine to travel far and wide, business can ZOOM all day long- but face to face and a single trip ending in a deal over dinner/a golf course/ a bar/ a boardroom matter. Weddings, funerals, family reunions, concerts, sporting events, vacations, all are what society knows. Will cities go back to hourly or 8-12x a day immediately? Dunno. Will airlines still exist, yes. Will all of them? Likely not. Will service go back to previous levels? Yes. When... who knows.

I know of at least one business person talking about air travel. When a deal needs to be signed, he’s there in person. When the deal looks a bit shaky, he takes the boss’s jet and flys down to meet in person, brings one of his small kids. Has the kid just to be there. Plays on the iPad. What is known is that nobody will act a fool with a child present. They talk reality, offers exchanged, deal is made, fly home. That aspect alone keeps the company jet. Normal ops is to airline to meeting. For the business they run, it supports their corporate ops and lots of airline miles. And it’s justified, easily, in numbers over online meetings or emails.

Airline ops work, and will be needed. When this quarantine ends, which I also have feelings on in a different tune to practice, the question will be to what extent of demand and need for regularity to keep the paying public enthused. That will determine the actual need by load factor, which determines everything from fleet decisions and furloughs. The only positive going is mandatory retirements. Interesting times indeed. Not sure who will “win”, but everyone is going to be a loser compared to the trajectory of 2019.
 
higney85 said:
Trump had his airline die. His brother, a TWA pilot, died of alcoholism. I’m a Trump supporter (fire suit and my level 4 vest on), does he want to keep airlines alive? I think he does. It’s not a dark or political joke, air travel is crucial to more than the hospitality industry (that we currently, and predominately, house), it’s at the root of our society. Travel is a major commerce aspect to our GDP, global interests, and security. It’s also a huge aspect of our way of life. Folks all around the country pine to travel far and wide, business can ZOOM all day long- but face to face and a single trip ending in a deal over dinner/a golf course/ a bar/ a boardroom matter. Weddings, funerals, family reunions, concerts, sporting events, vacations, all are what society knows. Will cities go back to hourly or 8-12x a day immediately? Dunno. Will airlines still exist, yes. Will all of them? Likely not. Will service go back to previous levels? Yes. When... who knows.

I know of at least one business person talking about air travel. When a deal needs to be signed, he’s there in person. When the deal looks a bit shaky, he takes the boss’s jet and flys down to meet in person, brings one of his small kids. Has the kid just to be there. Plays on the iPad. What is known is that nobody will act a fool with a child present. They talk reality, offers exchanged, deal is made, fly home. That aspect alone keeps the company jet. Normal ops is to airline to meeting. For the business they run, it supports their corporate ops and lots of airline miles. And it’s justified, easily, in numbers over online meetings or emails.

Airline ops work, and will be needed. When this quarantine ends, which I also have feelings on in a different tune to practice, the question will be to what extent of demand and need for regularity to keep the paying public enthused. That will determine the actual need by load factor, which determines everything from fleet decisions and furloughs. The only positive going is mandatory retirements. Interesting times indeed. Not sure who will “win”, but everyone is going to be a loser compared to the trajectory of 2019.
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Never said the industry would die. The workforce will shrink. I'd be willing to put the cost of a nice dinner and all you could drink on that fact.
 
SlumTodd_Millionaire said:
I’m sorry, I honestly have no suggestions. The doomers have managed to destroy just about every industry in one fell swoop. There’s nowhere to run this time. It ain’t post-9/11. This is something far worse.
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The airlines are for the most part, are hosed. They are losing millions every day. How long can they keep bleeding like that? Not long, regardless of the government bail out loans. I think the carriers are going to lose billions. I don't see how all of them can survive. This is far worse than 9/11. Back then, they got government bailouts and still filed bankruptcy. Then came the mergers, the concessions and some complete failures. This is obviously, going to last much longer. If this plays out for months, there are going to be massive furloughs and lay offs at every level in the aviation industry. Those "protections" in the government loans end after September. The international flying is all but done and domestic has hit the skids. Several Regionals could easily be toast. Freight should be okay.

I don't think that we will ever return to what we knew as "normal", in truth. A second wave of this virus could hit again this fall/winter according to some epidemiologists. We haven't experienced a virus like this since the H1N1 that struck in two seasons. Remember too, just how much the "fear factor" plays into all of this as well.

Two months into this current outbreak, massive layoffs have started, American industries have demanded bailouts, and unemployment rates have surged. Economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louisare are projecting total employment reductions of 47 million which means an unemployment rate of 32.1%!! What the hell will people do then?

Can you imagine no more cruises, concerts, sport games, conventions, Olympics, libraries, swap meets, fairs, air shows, going to beaches and parks, auto races, movie theaters, large outdoor entertainment theme parks and dozens of other large public venues/places no longer existing? How many millions of jobs will be lost? What will the airlines, hotels, restaurants and retail stores do? Hell, many states like California have closed their schools through the end of the year. What are the teachers and support staff going to do?

Countless businesses will be gone forever as well as countless jobs. This is just the beginning of the economic disaster which is now just building and far from it's peak. There is no telling just how horrendous the economic future of this country and the world will be. I think the entire world economy is gong to be in a huge amount of crap for a long time. Tip of the iceberg thus far. I hope everyday that I am wrong.
 
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AAPalmTree said:
(Non-derogatory honest internet question)

Where did you come up with this?
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From my superiors. I don’t know if that’s a universal answer because we have a lot of fleet types and the cascading displacement training events is speedy.
 
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