Furlough Estimates

Last I checked I was about 410 of 600 in SEA. Right around 2700 of 3000. My prediction is I'm on the street by the end of the year. They will probably let 100 go a month until about February or March.
 
Cherokee_Cruiser said:
I hate to say it, but pilots as a group are wishful thinkers. That’s why. I saw the same thing when we were waiting for seniority lists to come out, for contracts to come out, for hiring news, for upgrades, for a base closure, etc. Every flight had some sort of “they wouldn’t close New York right? They need us to cover flights on the east coast.” Some variation of that. Whatever the subject was, it was always wishful thinking and hoping.

Honesty, I think it’s mental medication to put ourselves at ease. And it does work. Up until the bandaid is ripped by management and you get the email of bad news.
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Disagree. Pilots are some of the most negative when it comes to doom and gloom where you win points for being the most doom and gloomish.
 
learhawkerbe400 said:
I’m 66% at AA. I’m an Airbus captain and i think i will keep a captain seat. May be one the gross 73 but oh well lol.

Nothing i can do about this craziness so I’m choosing to be optimistic while preparing for a pay cut.
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66% of what now. That’s the question.
 
BEEF SUPREME said:
Mostly a WAG. It’s changing daily. 12 pilots per airplane. 60% load factor on 80% of our airplanes. Very optimistic but possible. Wild card is the number of retirements.

I’m guessing at least 15% of pilots at Eskimo gone by October 1. Maybe another round of 15% depending on speed of recovery.

* I hope a bunch of people jump all over me and tell me how wrong I am. Because that’s normal for JC. Oh and how I’m making my life more difficult and how I messed up everything at XOJET. Because only @mikecweb and other people than myself are allowed to bring that up. Even though they have no idea what happened.


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Nope I'm just over here being an extremely overweight meek nerd, hauling the mail as an essential.
 
Cherokee_Cruiser said:
No furlough for on/or after Oct 1 assumes a V-shaped recovery, which experts are saying is not going to be the case.
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Yeah. Lots of wishful thinking here. Bill Nygren is talking about a possibility of a two year recovery to norm, and he acknowledged that even that is somewhat optimistic. I’m thinking more like 8-10 years, but I was bearish even before the pandemic.
 
SlumTodd_Millionaire said:
Yeah. Lots of wishful thinking here. Bill Nygren is talking about a possibility of a two year recovery to norm, and he acknowledged that even that is somewhat optimistic. I’m thinking more like 8-10 years, but I was bearish even before the pandemic.
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I was even more bearish than you. This isn't an "I told you so." I feel pretty guilty making money right now.
 
Varney just sent out their "we got the money, here's how we're gonna spend it" email
Per the careful HR vernacular, it sounds like I am audi 5000 come Oct
 
GaTechKid said:
I wrote my opinion on furloughs specifically for SJI on APC. The synopsis is 800-900 involuntary furloughs on Oct. 1 without any mitigation measures such as leaves, early outs, or ALV reductions. I don't believe furloughs cutting as deep as 30% at SJI is realistic considering the amount of money and time all those training events would cause and the amount of mandatory retirements that we have in the next 5 years. 5% of the list retires each year from 2021-2025. 18-24 months is the usual "break-even" point for furloughs with the amount of aircraft types we have, so SJI is most likely trying to figure out what summer 2022 will look like.

However, I think it's extremely wise to raise cash and enact cost cutting measures if you are in the bottom quarter of any major airline in the US. I am sitting at 77% and doing just that.
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Remember, those that say they know really... uhh... don’t.
 
Derg said:
Remember, those that say they know really... uhh... don’t.
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SlumTodd_Millionaire said:
Yeah. Lots of wishful thinking here. Bill Nygren is talking about a possibility of a two year recovery to norm, and he acknowledged that even that is somewhat optimistic. I’m thinking more like 8-10 years, but I was bearish even before the pandemic.
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As history states, I don’t like agreeing with you. Even though I agree with a lot. I’m not sure it’ll be 8-10 years but I certainly don’t believe it’ll be 2.

This is the most extreme reaction to a virus any of us have ever seen. Think COVID-19 will be forgotten about 1 month after someone declares “mission accomplished?”

I’m certainly no Nostradamus and get just about everything wrong. Ask my wife. I see China opening up, manufacturing and shipping. They’re manufacturing and shipping to the large companies that survive this. Small business will be slow to come back because, well, they saw the good turn terrible in a flash. The “patriotic” ones that want to start up and only sell “Made in USA” won’t have the funds because it’ll cost more since there will only be a few manufacturing companies left in the U.S.

For the airlines. As you stated in some other thread, or maybe this one? I see business utilizing Zoom (or other such applications) more often. Sure there will still be a need for in person, but it’ll be a lot less. Business travel will slow. People will still want to travel, after they’ve recovered from the fear of contracting the virus, however long that takes. But if they became unemployed during this and have no funds, how will they travel? I don’t foresee corporations just up and hiring everyone back the day after a vaccine is created.

8-10 years? A possibility. But I can’t see 2 years. You (general) saw how quick and ferocious the fall was. It’s scared people. Fear takes time to recover from.

Edit: I’m not saying I know, because I obviously don’t.
 
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