Furlough Estimates

ZapBrannigan said:
I've been thinking of this. I have a small home and really no way to avoid the family between trips. So what exactly are you doing to protect them when you come home?

Some of our Captains are parking their RVs in the driveway and staying there, or they have an air conditioned shop, or a vacation home. I got none of that stuff. Not even a van, down by the river.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I dont bring anything into the house. Leave everything out in the garage. Sleeping/showering/S-ing in guest room. Not getting down in the kids face and wrestling around with them etc. Eating at the bar beside the kitchen table instead of at the table. I've got leave coming up in just two weeks so trying to be careful until then.
 
Derg said:
I had about three weeks off for vacation which is probably going to become five if not six depending on next week.

Can’t say I’ve missed it at all.

I gotta go through this “OMG UR A DISEASED PARIAH”-level of decontamination when I come home so its nice not having to deal with it.
Click to expand...


Yep, right there with ya...
 
MarketWatch wrote this about a week ago using Jamie Baker's (JP Morgan) airline analysis:
He now expects second-quarter 2020 revenue will be down 80% from a year ago, third-quarter revenue will be down 45% and fourth-quarter revenue will be down 25%, which is roughly 10 percentage points worse than previous expectations for each period.
For 2021, Baker projects revenue will be “no better” than approximately 25% below 2019 levels.
“We are growing increasingly convinced that industry recovery to 2019 levels of output will be a multiyear affair, resulting in the material shedding of aircraft and head count along the way,” Baker wrote.
Click to expand...

American Airlines suffers double downgrade at J.P. Morgan, price target withdrawn
 
I wrote my opinion on furloughs specifically for SJI on APC. The synopsis is 800-900 involuntary furloughs on Oct. 1 without any mitigation measures such as leaves, early outs, or ALV reductions. I don't believe furloughs cutting as deep as 30% at SJI is realistic considering the amount of money and time all those training events would cause and the amount of mandatory retirements that we have in the next 5 years. 5% of the list retires each year from 2021-2025. 18-24 months is the usual "break-even" point for furloughs with the amount of aircraft types we have, so SJI is most likely trying to figure out what summer 2022 will look like.

However, I think it's extremely wise to raise cash and enact cost cutting measures if you are in the bottom quarter of any major airline in the US. I am sitting at 77% and doing just that.
 
GaTechKid said:
I wrote my opinion on furloughs specifically for SJI on APC. The synopsis is 800-900 involuntary furloughs on Oct. 1 without any mitigation measures such as leaves, early outs, or ALV reductions. I don't believe furloughs cutting as deep as 30% at SJI is realistic considering the amount of money and time all those training events would cause and the amount of mandatory retirements that we have in the next 5 years. 5% of the list retires each year from 2021-2025. 18-24 months is the usual "break-even" point for furloughs with the amount of aircraft types we have, so SJI is most likely trying to figure out what summer 2022 will look like.

However, I think it's extremely wise to raise cash and enact cost cutting measures if you are in the bottom quarter of any major airline in the US. I am sitting at 77% and doing just that.
Click to expand...
Thanks for that. There are some really bizarre numbers being thrown around over there, like 50%...Bro, put the keyboard down and go for a damn walk. Unless a carrier is going to go insolvent, I think furlough might create more problems than it solves at a lot of places. The real problem right now is that we have to sit and wait to see what happens. With the memories of 9/11 still out there, and absolutely no good news offered by mass media to replace it with, doom and gloom are going to reign supreme for the next 10-12 weeks everywhere. I just really want to wake up have it be the day after election day so the mass media can go back to telling the American public that everything is going to be fine again [/grenade].
 
GaTechKid said:
I wrote my opinion on furloughs specifically for SJI on APC. The synopsis is 800-900 involuntary furloughs on Oct. 1 without any mitigation measures such as leaves, early outs, or ALV reductions. I don't believe furloughs cutting as deep as 30% at SJI is realistic considering the amount of money and time all those training events would cause and the amount of mandatory retirements that we have in the next 5 years. 5% of the list retires each year from 2021-2025. 18-24 months is the usual "break-even" point for furloughs with the amount of aircraft types we have, so SJI is most likely trying to figure out what summer 2022 will look like.

However, I think it's extremely wise to raise cash and enact cost cutting measures if you are in the bottom quarter of any major airline in the US. I am sitting at 77% and doing just that.
Click to expand...
Say it 800-900...Of that you could probably get 100-200 or so to take a voluntary leave. Is there really any savings to be had for furloughing 700 guys? That to me, doesnt even make sense.
 
I hate to say it, but pilots as a group are wishful thinkers. That’s why. I saw the same thing when we were waiting for seniority lists to come out, for contracts to come out, for hiring news, for upgrades, for a base closure, etc. Every flight had some sort of “they wouldn’t close New York right? They need us to cover flights on the east coast.” Some variation of that. Whatever the subject was, it was always wishful thinking and hoping.

Honesty, I think it’s mental medication to put ourselves at ease. And it does work. Up until the bandaid is ripped by management and you get the email of bad news.
 
Last edited:
AAPalmTree said:
I don’t think it will be worth it. I’ve heard (could be total BS) that 18 months on furlough is the financial break even point for the airline. I see the demand back before then. I’m preparing to see furloughs but I’m optimistic we won’t have any.
Click to expand...

I don’t think there will be furloughs at AA. 720 guys took early outs, 3000ish took voluntary leave, we still retire 300ish more this year. That coupled with no more new hires and we have cut down our head count quite significantly.

I may be wrong but who knows. I’m sure as hell not moping around screaming to anyone who will listen that the worlds over. We gon be ight
 
GypsyPilot said:
Why do you think that?
Click to expand...
Because this isn't like 9/11. Pre 9/11 all the airlines outside of Southwest were a financial mess. Now there are fewer airlines and they are in a better overall financial situation. The top end of all three list are also a lot older than they were on 9/11. So it would be cheaper to buy guys/girls off the top than deal with the cost of furloughs.
 
Kingairer said:
I dont bring anything into the house. Leave everything out in the garage. Sleeping/showering/S-ing in guest room. Not getting down in the kids face and wrestling around with them etc. Eating at the bar beside the kitchen table instead of at the table. I've got leave coming up in just two weeks so trying to be careful until then.
Click to expand...

You may be able to make that work bc you’re going on leave soon but for the rest of us who still have to fly there’s no way that’s sustainable.

I leave my stuff in the garage, shower, change or what not when i get home and I’m not out licking airport doorknobs. But I can’t indefinitely sequester myself. Granted i have a healthy family.

Enjoy your leave my dude
 
Cherokee_Cruiser said:
I hate to say it, but pilots as a group are wishful thinkers. That’s why. I saw the same thing when we were waiting for seniority lists to come out, for contracts to come out, for hiring news, for upgrades, for a base closure, etc. Every flight had some sort of “they wouldn’t close New York right? They need us to cover flights on the east coast.” Some variation of that. Whatever the subject was, it was always wishful thinking and hoping.

Honesty, I think it’s mental medication to put ourselves at ease. And it does work. Up until the bandaid is ripped by management and you get the email and then certified letter at home.
Click to expand...

This may be true but answer me a question.

I’m planning (financially etc) on seeing AA furlough this fall. No debt, stocking up on cash etc. I don’t think it will get to me but what good is worrying about it going to do? So I can go through the pain twice? Once now when I worry about it and again when it happens? 1/2 the crap I worry about never happens anyway. Worrying about things you don’t know or cant control is the epitome of futility.
 
AAPalmTree said:
This may be true but answer me a question.

I’m planning (financially etc) on seeing AA furlough this fall. No debt, stocking up on cash etc. I don’t think it will get to me but what good is worrying about it going to do? So I can go through the pain twice? Once now when I worry about it and again when it happens? 1/2 the crap I worry about never happens anyway. Worrying about things you don’t know or cant control is the epitome of futility.
Click to expand...

it is said that worry is like a rocking chair: it gives you something to do, but gets you nowhere.
 
AAPalmTree said:
This may be true but answer me a question.

I’m planning (financially etc) on seeing AA furlough this fall. No debt, stocking up on cash etc. I don’t think it will get to me but what good is worrying about it going to do? So I can go through the pain twice? Once now when I worry about it and again when it happens? 1/2 the crap I worry about never happens anyway. Worrying about things you don’t know or cant control is the epitome of futility.
Click to expand...

I agree, hope for the best but plan for the worse. Worrying won’t help, it just as guys who say 30%+ furloughs are coming are doing an injustice bacuse of fear/anxiety that kinda comment causes, it’s also kinda a disservice by saying we won’t furlough either. I don’t talk about this stuff in the flight deck but if the FO brings it up I try to avoid numbers. I just say that this whole situation is bad for everyone and hopefully soon everyone will pull through. It’s about as neutral as answer I can find.

I met one SEA CA who I never met in my life get very emotional in the crew room to the point of tears. He said he was furloughed in 2008 recession and now thinks he’ll be downgraded. I said I’m sorry to hear that and tried to just let him vent. Sometimes people just need to talk it out. I think after the convo he felt better but still overall a depressing thing.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top