Alaska Hawaiian Merger?

Cherokee_Cruiser said:
Whatever protections the TPA will be in place. But one day, HNL flying is getting cut. Period. Post Covid is a changed landscape for Hawaii, period. Tons of over capacity.


Those widebodies will be doing flying out of SEA. HNL will have to shrink. While this is a great merger idea, the logistics of implementing it are going to be a rough 4-5 yrs.
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may be anecdotal at best but we've been to Hawaii each the last 6 years and every flight has been completely full out of Minneapolis. That includes trips to HNL (non-stop) and KOA (via SEA, LAX)....No drop at all from MSP has been visible....
 
word302 said:
So we can't get the airframes that we want to fly the capacity that's currently planned but you think that we're just going to park airframes that don't have replacements? How is that logical? I get that none of us is privy to these decisions but let's infuse a small dose of common sense into our doom and gloom.
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We already started parking the classic 900s. At least two of them are gone. Yeah they were old and had high ref speeds but they had a left and right seat that no AS pilot will sit in again.

I haven’t heard that the plan to retire these airframes has changed. Have you? Is there some kind of plan?

Maybe a slight amount of transparency will help but there is zero comms from mgmt about any of the delivery or airframe retirement plans.
 
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word302 said:
So we can't get the airframes that we want to fly the capacity that's currently planned but you think that we're just going to park airframes that don't have replacements? How is that logical? I get that none of us is privy to these decisions but let's infuse a small dose of common sense into our doom and gloom.
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It’s not logical, and exactly what I was trying to point out. These airlines are overstaffed due to airplanes not coming in for planned growth, that’s literally the reason.

Once deliveries continue it will eat the over staffing.

Also, I expect another early retirement option to be offered at some point in this process. It may not happen but it also very well might.
 
BEEF SUPREME said:
We already started parking the classic 900s. At least two of them are gone. Yeah they were old and had high ref speeds but they had a left and right seat that no AS pilot will sit in again.

I haven’t heard that the plan to retire these airframes has changed. Have you? Is there some kind of plan?

Maybe a slight amount of transparency will help but there is zero comms from mgmt about any of the delivery or airframe retirement plans.
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They had engines that were timing out and the cost to re-engine them was cost prohibitive. To lease engines it’s typically a 7 year lease and they don’t want to commit to that length of time with those airframes naturally.

Again, we have two less airframes than we did in 2016 and that is SOLELY due to lack of deliveries.
 
BobDDuck said:
Tell me you don't understand long haul staffing without saying you don't understand long haul staffing. If the widebodys were all flying long routes (which is where they make money so I have to assume that's where Alaska will be sending them) we are understaffed. If they are all going to bop back and forth between Honolulu and Seattle (or Vegas) then we are overstaffed.



Prior to the merger being announced, HA management was shopping for 330s. There was (as of a year ago) a pretty robust market of used 330s, and the order pipeline for 330NEOs wasn't more than a few years. 321NEOs (with working engines) are pretty easy to pick up right now, if you can pry them out of United's hands. Aircraft growth is a pretty easy things to make happen. It just might not be planes that start with a 7.
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I get that augmented crew is a thing. At AS we are overstaffed and don’t have augmented crew operations. Let’s hope that Angle Lake doesn’t mess with the international side until those 330s show up….
 
Dude you keep saying overstaffed with zero context. You are using it like we are in financial troubles, have shrunk flying and have an excess amount of pilots. That is absolutely not the case and is disingenuous.
 
Inverted said:
Dude you keep saying overstaffed with zero context. You are using it like we are in financial troubles, have shrunk flying and have an excess amount of pilots. That is absolutely not the case and is disingenuous.
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We over hired for aircraft that didn't show up. They still haven't shown up. The FAA throttled the manufacturing capacity because they were being built without important parts. Like the bolts that hold the doors on, or in. Now the workers that build these aircraft are striking. So I don't see this issue being resolved anytime soon. That's the context.
 
BEEF SUPREME said:
We over hired for aircraft that didn't show up. They still haven't shown up. The FAA throttled the manufacturing capacity because they were being built without important parts. Like the bolts that hold the doors on, or in. Now the workers that build these aircraft are striking. So I don't see this issue being resolved anytime soon. That's the context.
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Boeing is losing 100 mil a day on this, it will be resolved sooner than you think. We don't have a single fleet type anymore. Literally as of today, those days are over. Things have become way more dynamic and complicated and it is not as simple as Renton not pumping out 737s. Contractually, we have two years before we even have to think about this issue and ANYTHING can happen before then. Last I checked, the top 3 are still gobbling up a few grand worth of pilots this year and next and we still have growth plans.

HAL was hiring up to what, last month? Again dude, we have two years to add airframes and we have technically 3 different widebody fleet types to add more crews to.
 
Inverted said:
Boeing is losing 100 mil a day on this, it will be resolved sooner than you think. We don't have a single fleet type anymore. Literally as of today, those days are over. Things have become way more dynamic and complicated and it is not as simple as Renton not pumping out 737s. Contractually, we have two years before we even have to think about this issue and ANYTHING can happen before then. Last I checked, the top 3 are still gobbling up a few grand worth of pilots this year and next and we still have growth plans.

HAL was hiring up to what, last month? Again dude, we have two years to add airframes and we have technically 3 different widebody fleet types to add more crews to.
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Cool I hope it gets resolved in the next two years because that furlough protection clock just started ticking this week. Also hope there is a bit of transparency on fleet plans. Because right now it's all an unknown.

I've found that since I started this career in 2004, hope is not a strategy. I'll continue to plan on zero hiring until a forced downgrade in late 2026. Pump up the investment accounts for the next two years with 6 days off every 30-50 days if I can trade for a Sunday or Saturday after 3 weeks. Then I will happily take downgrade and an IL and get paid to ride bikes, surf and not think about this place for 24 months.
 
I like a Beefy pile up as much as the next guy, but he’s absolutely correct about the overstaffing situation. We staffed for planes that never came. Make no mistake, had it not been for the mitigation via VRBOs and ILs, we would have had a reduction, displacement bid.
 
Cherokee_Cruiser said:
I like a Beefy pile up as much as the next guy, but he’s absolutely correct about the overstaffing situation. We staffed for planes that never came. Make no mistake, had it not been for the mitigation via VRBOs and ILs, we would have had a reduction, displacement bid.
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Two year clock is ticking. I hope I can take advantage of IL as they go too senior for me now.
 
Someone told me I could come here to find out info if/when Boeing delivery’s where going to start happening…

This is the fun before the gnashing of teeth during the SLI. I wish y’all luck
 
SurferLucas said:
Someone told me I could come here to find out info if/when Boeing delivery’s where going to start happening…

This is the fun before the gnashing of teeth during the SLI. I wish y’all luck
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It seems like some here are extremely confident that BA will be pumping out airplanes tomorrow. My friends that work at BA say it's going to get worse.

There is only one right answer and know one knows what it will be.
 
BEEF SUPREME said:
Cool I hope it gets resolved in the next two years because that furlough protection clock just started ticking this week. Also hope there is a bit of transparency on fleet plans. Because right now it's all an unknown.

I've found that since I started this career in 2004, hope is not a strategy. I'll continue to plan on zero hiring until a forced downgrade in late 2026. Pump up the investment accounts for the next two years with 6 days off every 30-50 days if I can trade for a Sunday or Saturday after 3 weeks. Then I will happily take downgrade and an IL and get paid to ride bikes, surf and not think about this place for 24 months.
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God you are depressing...
 
Cherokee_Cruiser said:
I like a Beefy pile up as much as the next guy, but he’s absolutely correct about the overstaffing situation. We staffed for planes that never came. Make no mistake, had it not been for the mitigation via VRBOs and ILs, we would have had a reduction, displacement bid.
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It isn't about being right or wrong. The truth is, the overstaffing is not that significant. VRBOs and ILs are here to stay and will be used monthly in some way shape or form when needed. It is much easier to do that than to swallow the loss of temporary overstaffing. We still have premium and open time trips in every base and seat, daily. The planes will come and correct the overstaffing. We have not deferred orders, we have not canceled orders.

This doom and gloom of the future is crazy, we just bought a freaking airline. Alaska wrote a 1 billion dollar check. The company is doing fine, things are pretty good if you actually look at what is going on. If we don't get ANY airplanes in two years, first of all, I will eat my shiny new Luly Yang hat if that happens, and second of all, that will be a completely unforeseen circumstance that we will have to deal with when it comes. What we are doing right now from a financial standpoint is actually quite good. The airline is strong, and if we don't hire in 2025, you still have a job, and you are still a CA.
 
BEEF SUPREME said:
Vacation month. Why would I take one on a vacation month?? Zero advantage to me at all. Also are we talking about VBROs or ILs? Pretty sure they aren't offering ILs for SEA CA for November. ILs were not offered for October. Those were VBROs?
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Sorry yes, VRBO. For someone that complains about having no time off you’d think you’d be utilizing every tool at your disposal. That or you’re just all talk.
 
word302 said:
Sorry yes, VRBO. For someone that complains about having no time off you’d think you’d be utilizing every tool at your disposal. That or you’re just all talk.
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Welp. I was talking about IL in the future and hoping I could hold one since they don’t offer them for my seat and base.

And there you go butthurt and mad that I’m lying when in fact you’re wrong. You’re totally flat out wrong and claiming I’m a liar.

Suggestion: stop letting me live in your head rent free. If you see me post something factual don’t call me a liar. When I’m not lying. The last time they offered ILs it was not available for my seat or base.

Maybe in two years with a forced downgrade I’ll be able to enjoy an IL. That’s what I was saying
 
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