BobDDuck
Island Bus Driver
You can't furlough. TPA doesn't allow it for 24 months from this week.
Alaska Hawaiian Merger?
- Thread starter BobDDuck
- Start date
You can't furlough. TPA doesn't allow it for 24 months from this week.
Cherokee_Cruiser
Bronteroc
Neither would Spirit at this stage, if JetBlue was approved for merger back in January.
BEEF SUPREME
Well-Known Member
For now yes. The furlough protection clock starts ticking soon and it's only for two years. Hopefully we will be able to get a substantial amount of new airframes before that protection runs out.
JDean3204
Well-Known Member
That is true, hopefully growth plans will be in place by that point in time. I don’t see much hiring next year for either airline and once we become one airline until the plans are in motion.
BEEF SUPREME
Well-Known Member
All pilot call has already stated no hiring until Q4 2025.
My opinion: that is extremely optimistic
Inverted
mmmmmm wine
If deliveries resume, that may change.
BEEF SUPREME
Well-Known Member
The all pilot call was before the strike. If anything the timetable has already been pushed back to Q1 2026
Based on what my friends a Boeing are saying it is not looking good for deliveries.
Cherokee_Cruiser
Bronteroc
We’re merging. And fleets will be simplified.
Look at mainline fleet numbers of VX (73) and AS (~169) at merger close. Compare that to today. We have less mainline frames.
One would be delusional if they think 3 yrs from now the combined entity will have more frames, compared to individual fleet at each shop combined.
Settle in, cause we are in for stagnation.
Look at mainline fleet numbers of VX (73) and AS (~169) at merger close. Compare that to today. We have less mainline frames.
One would be delusional if they think 3 yrs from now the combined entity will have more frames, compared to individual fleet at each shop combined.
Settle in, cause we are in for stagnation.
BEEF SUPREME
Well-Known Member
Inverted
mmmmmm wine
Deliveries were already down from what they should be. If production resumes to what is expected, that could change things.
Inverted
mmmmmm wine
By two fewer airframes. We have 240 compared to 242. Again, if the delivery schedule was up we would have 20 more airframes? This company doesn't grow like other airlines, but blaming Alaska for shrinking airlines after a merger when we are down about two dozen airframes as expected, is not being fair.
BEEF SUPREME
Well-Known Member
No one is "blaming Alaska" for anything. Just pointing out that:
- There are more pilots than necessary at both airlines to operate the aircraft we have with the present fleet.
- The present AS fleet is programed to shrink by at least 12 airframes and there are currently zero replacements coming short term. Long term?
- We just merged with a pilot heavy airline that has more than one fleet that is highly likely not long for this world. Based on AS mgmt history.
- Presently there is no realistic solution to replace those aircraft.
- There is also no realistic way to bolster the current widebody fleet at HA. CHS 787 production is capped. 330 production is a wildcard.
Is this a great situation? No it's not. Could it get worse? Yes. Record demand could diminish. Then we will be in big trouble. Pilot staffing wise we are the middle income family with maxed out credit cards and pegged HELOC. If something goes bad with demand it will get very ugly.
The only saving grace is record delivery numbers from two manufacturing giants that are either booked for a decade or can't produce aircraft. I don't see that happening.
Why this makes people mad I have no idea. It's just numbers.
Cherokee_Cruiser
Bronteroc
2016 to 2024 = 240 to 242 planes.
It’s just what mergers do.
Fleet “optimization”
Network “realignment”
Base “re-sizing”
Merger “synergies”
And in this case, a widebody external company cargo contract. Yikes.
I hope people aren’t planning on some massive growth/bids/expansion. In fact, I don’t even see a SEA 330 base anytime soon. Just TDY those guys up there. SEA was the last mainland pilot base at HAL to close. They have a bunch of commuters from SEA. Those TDYs would go in a heartbeat.
Cherokee_Cruiser
Bronteroc
Whatever protections the TPA will be in place. But one day, HNL flying is getting cut. Period. Post Covid is a changed landscape for Hawaii, period. Tons of over capacity.
Those widebodies will be doing flying out of SEA. HNL will have to shrink. While this is a great merger idea, the logistics of implementing it are going to be a rough 4-5 yrs.
BEEF SUPREME
Well-Known Member
I had one in the jumpseat. Super nice guy. He was really looking forward to no longer commuting.
So we can't get the airframes that we want to fly the capacity that's currently planned but you think that we're just going to park airframes that don't have replacements? How is that logical? I get that none of us is privy to these decisions but let's infuse a small dose of common sense into our doom and gloom.
BobDDuck
Island Bus Driver
Tell me you don't understand long haul staffing without saying you don't understand long haul staffing. If the widebodys were all flying long routes (which is where they make money so I have to assume that's where Alaska will be sending them) we are understaffed. If they are all going to bop back and forth between Honolulu and Seattle (or Vegas) then we are overstaffed.
Prior to the merger being announced, HA management was shopping for 330s. There was (as of a year ago) a pretty robust market of used 330s, and the order pipeline for 330NEOs wasn't more than a few years. 321NEOs (with working engines) are pretty easy to pick up right now, if you can pry them out of United's hands. Aircraft growth is a pretty easy things to make happen. It just might not be planes that start with a 7.
Skåning
Well-Known Member
Cherokee_Cruiser
Bronteroc
Relax.
There is more than enough widebody opportunities by doing SEA-PDX and SEA-GEG.