121 future with vaccine
- Thread starter AAPalmTree
- Start date
Autothrust Blue
"Well, on the Brasilia..."
Yep.
Old Pete
Cockpit Authoritarian
1. Most people aren’t anti-vaxxers.
2.Vaxx-no-mask
3. Operation Warp Speed baby
4. 65 +yo “What have I got to lose?
AAPalmTree
Well-Known Member
@poser765
What exactly are you two doing?
All I see is people people who are anti racist/suppression, suppressing opposing views and calling others (that, in truth may agree With them) racists. I see people throwing bricks at windows and stealing $h!t. People not wearing masks that should. Places opening that should be shut. Places remaining shut that should be open.
covid isn’t being dealt with correctly
Police brutality isn’t being dealt with correctly
Racism isn’t understood/being fixed
Rioters aren’t doing anything to further a cause nor being dealt with correctly
I’m not sure what you think is being fixed but I’m gonna guess you’ll see in a few years it was a fool’s errand.
BobDDuck
Island Bus Driver
We were having a discussion about facts, and you just wrote up a bunch of personal opinions and viewpoints.
CFIscare
Well-Known Member
How can you have a discussion without personal opinions and viewpoints?
BobDDuck
Island Bus Driver
It depends on what kind of conversation we are trying to have.
CFIscare
Well-Known Member
Honestly, I'm not really sure what kind of conversation everyone wants to have.
Anyways, I have no answers for world problems. I'm still trying to get a 4 year old to properly s*** on a toilet so I figure I should probably solve that before I move on to worldly issues.
JordanD
Chinese Food Enthusiast
That might be part of the problem, it’s supposed to go in it
CFIscare
Well-Known Member
That might be part of the problem, it’s supposed to go in it
AAPalmTree
Well-Known Member
You are totally off the hook for everything. Those are trying times!
AAPalmTree
Well-Known Member
My opinion is we should do something with the facts (which I posted).
Screaming_Emu
Joe Conventional
That might be part of the problem, it’s supposed to go in it
37 years and I’m still learning.
ZapBrannigan
If it ain’t a Boeing, I’m not going. No choice.
400% higher than the next highest division?! What the heck are you guys doing? Sharing a popsicle?!
We have no information regarding flight ops at our company. They won't tell us. Maybe I don't even want to know.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
We have no information regarding flight ops at our company. They won't tell us. Maybe I don't even want to know.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
jynxyjoe
Queso King
Keep in mind our company had to be talked down from making pilots commute to work to sit short reserve for airplanes that were parked. Parked. As in, not gonna fly.
SJI management finally realized how screwed the ny base employees were and whatever games they wanted to play to punish pilots for not genuflecting could wait until AFTER the pandemic.
bimmerphile
Sidestick Wiggler
The only thing that's really giving me hope in the advent of remote work, is the destruction of the office. I think we may end up with some less frequent biz travelers (2 or 4 trips/year) from a wider group of employees that don't report to a campus in Silicon Valley and instead moved to Truckee or Reno or anywhere else in the world.
Corporate real estate may end up the biggest loser here. Easy to delete that fixed cost when your employees work everywhere, and translate some of that savings into infrequent travel for the irreplaceable interactions.
I have nothing to back this up but it's an interesting thought experiment
Corporate real estate may end up the biggest loser here. Easy to delete that fixed cost when your employees work everywhere, and translate some of that savings into infrequent travel for the irreplaceable interactions.
I have nothing to back this up but it's an interesting thought experiment
QXDX
Well-Known Member
1) Some people will take the vaccine. Most people won't.
2) It depends on who is in charge. If Harris is elected, the media trumpet the vaccine's efficacy and a return to normal life like Hendrix standing atop the Sears Tower with a Stratocaster and a Marshall stack.
3) Leftest media is, and will continue, to be unethical regardless of who is in the White House. They will either carry water for Democrats, or dump it on Republicans.
Murdoughnut
Well sized member
So I'm in charge of forecasting demand/traffic impacts of this for our airport, but as one of the few statisticians in my role, I've been consulting several other airports as well. My forecasts have been pretty unchanged since early June.
Recovery is dependent upon the return of business travel. While leisure travel is currently down 62% or so year-over-year, business travel, as measured by agency bookings, has remained 90% down since soon after this thing began. A 1% change in business traffic has traditionally accounted for a 10% change to revenues for the industry. Even if you're G4, NK or F9 who don't carry much business traffic (if any), it rolls down hill. Legacies and LCCs are dropping fares to comparable levels, eating into the market share of "get me to Florida as cheap as you can" pax that these carriers typically enjoyed themselves.
When you look at who is traveling during COVID (I know because I did one of the only shared studies of it) - it's people the industry can't rely on very long. Traditionally infrequent, fare driven, younger, lower income consumers. You know what tipped me off to this? When TSA started confiscating more guns despite a decline in traffic. The revenue capacity gap is growing over time, as carriers dump $29 fares to get anyone into seats. These people are also the same consumers susceptible to being hit hardest by the recession come fall/winter.
Step one to getting business traffic back is to get businesses to return to the office. With many pushing that out to at least early 2021 (if not later), the fall is a wash, as is most of the winter.
The public health folks we talk to generally agree that a vaccine won't become widely available until next summer. There will be schedule classifications of who gets it, and most of us will be schedule 4, or the last group.
Murdoughnut's forecast that has spread uncomfortably further than he would have liked:
Would love, love, love to be wrong here, but so far the industry's forecasts keep getting closer to mine, rather than the other way around.
God help us all.
Recovery is dependent upon the return of business travel. While leisure travel is currently down 62% or so year-over-year, business travel, as measured by agency bookings, has remained 90% down since soon after this thing began. A 1% change in business traffic has traditionally accounted for a 10% change to revenues for the industry. Even if you're G4, NK or F9 who don't carry much business traffic (if any), it rolls down hill. Legacies and LCCs are dropping fares to comparable levels, eating into the market share of "get me to Florida as cheap as you can" pax that these carriers typically enjoyed themselves.
When you look at who is traveling during COVID (I know because I did one of the only shared studies of it) - it's people the industry can't rely on very long. Traditionally infrequent, fare driven, younger, lower income consumers. You know what tipped me off to this? When TSA started confiscating more guns despite a decline in traffic. The revenue capacity gap is growing over time, as carriers dump $29 fares to get anyone into seats. These people are also the same consumers susceptible to being hit hardest by the recession come fall/winter.
Step one to getting business traffic back is to get businesses to return to the office. With many pushing that out to at least early 2021 (if not later), the fall is a wash, as is most of the winter.
The public health folks we talk to generally agree that a vaccine won't become widely available until next summer. There will be schedule classifications of who gets it, and most of us will be schedule 4, or the last group.
Murdoughnut's forecast that has spread uncomfortably further than he would have liked:
- Recovery doesn't begin until summer 2021
- Traffic levels rise in response over a 12-18 month period, but only approach 80% of 2019 levels
- Following reaching 80%, traffic increases as its standard 2-3% rate
- Recovery to 2019 levels between 2025 to 2027
Would love, love, love to be wrong here, but so far the industry's forecasts keep getting closer to mine, rather than the other way around.
God help us all.
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SlumTodd_Millionaire
Most Hated Member
This is a Slumtodd original. Proud to see it spread beyond my Facebook feed.
Really great writeup!
