Stay at Atlas or leave for AA ?

derg said:
Please don’t ever become one of those FOs who is a first name, city of residence and then three hours of payback days, green slips, trip drops and bidding strategy that always becomes chats about alimony, kids at Juilliard and how they’re going to get two Bulgogi burritos at Costco, eat one in the room and save the other for the flight back because you don’t trust flight attendants.
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Goals.
 
I think “The Shuffle” — or the ease in which people were able to swap around airlines without much long-term detriment to their careers is certainly on pause for the next couple years.

A lot of airlines stopped hiring and those that are are hiring much more traditional numbers. We have a robust number of hires this year, far less than 2022/2023 but it still reflects a ‘high normal’ compared to other more rational years.

The big driver is going to be covering for attrition and any sort of international expansion. Domestic air travel, especially in economy classes, has even to low yields and the premium and international travel is what’s driving most of the industries margins. Like on a plane of almost 400 people, the back cabin can be mostly ‘break even’ whereas the premium “front of plane” products have over 30% margins so that’s probably going to be the next big push from them airlines that offer that.

I’m hungry so I’ll use a food analogy.

Everyone is selling $5 “dirty water” hotdogs that cost $4.99 to produce, and the lines are long, but the people that are selling imported German Knockwurst (which is basically just a slightly girthier hot dog anyway) for $30 per person for a upscale “sausage experience” with a cost structure of $20pp has a line out the door and already has new locations on lease in a tight commercial real estate market.

That’s why some hotdog carts are trying to go into business with one another for scale and pricing control on one end of the street while the Bavarian Knockwurst shops are capturing the premium customers happy to spend more AND, unfortunately, still offer happy hour pricing on their version of the dirty water hotdogs to get people through the door and introduced to their brand.

I should go eat before I tell another stupid story.
 
derg said:
I think “The Shuffle” — or the ease in which people were able to swap around airlines without much long-term detriment to their careers is certainly on pause for the next couple years.

A lot of airlines stopped hiring and those that are are hiring much more traditional numbers. We have a robust number of hires this year, far less than 2022/2023 but it still reflects a ‘high normal’ compared to other more rational years.

The big driver is going to be covering for attrition and any sort of international expansion. Domestic air travel, especially in economy classes, has even to low yields and the premium and international travel is what’s driving most of the industries margins. Like on a plane of almost 400 people, the back cabin can be mostly ‘break even’ whereas the premium “front of plane” products have over 30% margins so that’s probably going to be the next big push from them airlines that offer that.

I’m hungry so I’ll use a food analogy.

Everyone is selling $5 “dirty water” hotdogs that cost $4.99 to produce, and the lines are long, but the people that are selling imported German Knockwurst (which is basically just a slightly girthier hot dog anyway) for $30 per person for a upscale “sausage experience” with a cost structure of $20pp has a line out the door and already has new locations on lease in a tight commercial real estate market.

That’s why some hotdog carts are trying to go into business with one another for scale and pricing control on one end of the street while the Bavarian Knockwurst shops are capturing the premium customers happy to spend more AND, unfortunately, still offer happy hour pricing on their version of the dirty water hotdogs to get people through the door and introduced to their brand.

I should go eat before I tell another stupid story.
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That's a lotta wiener talk
 
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These little things have been absolutely divine all week here in Portugal.
 
derg said:
I think “The Shuffle” — or the ease in which people were able to swap around airlines without much long-term detriment to their careers is certainly on pause for the next couple years.

A lot of airlines stopped hiring and those that are are hiring much more traditional numbers. We have a robust number of hires this year, far less than 2022/2023 but it still reflects a ‘high normal’ compared to other more rational years.

The big driver is going to be covering for attrition and any sort of international expansion. Domestic air travel, especially in economy classes, has even to low yields and the premium and international travel is what’s driving most of the industries margins. Like on a plane of almost 400 people, the back cabin can be mostly ‘break even’ whereas the premium “front of plane” products have over 30% margins so that’s probably going to be the next big push from them airlines that offer that.
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Attrition may not be as much of a driver if legislation is pushed through to raise the age. I am hopeful that if ICAO holds firm and doesnt change the age, the push to do so here will dwindle. The guardrails are down now and there really is nothing that will stop a push to raise it now, as well as consolidation.
How that affects, or even if it should, someone's career decision is unknown.
 
Kingairer said:
Attrition may not be as much of a driver if legislation is pushed through to raise the age. I am hopeful that if ICAO holds firm and doesnt change the age, the push to do so here will dwindle. The guardrails are down now and there really is nothing that will stop a push to raise it now, as well as consolidation.
How that affects, or even if it should, someone's career decision is unknown.
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I don’t expect the best 4+ years to be labor friendly, at all.
 
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