Furlough Estimates

///AMG said:
Fair enough fellas. My comment wasn't based on APC (I'm not a member/don't use it) nor was it employee FB (I'm not an employee), but have heard this from friends who work there. Perhaps they saw it on one of those places, and apparently it has been a topic of discussion at work in at least a few cockpits, somewhere in the sky.
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That number isn’t floating around anywhere. Not saying they wouldn’t ask for it, which they can ask for anything in the world, but no.

We had a check airman do some math and project a number of furloughs, the world imploded and someone spent some time at the desk for a chat about the confluence of wild speculation and job title.
 
roundout said:
THIS IS A PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT TO UTILIZE CIRP OR YOUR COMPANY'S EQUIVALENT IF YOU NEED SOMEONE TO TALK TO. .... NOT BEING OK IS....NORMAL.....THERE ARE ....RESOURCES AVAILABLE.

How'd I do?
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I think you did very well! That being said...

I don't mean to take away from the intent of your post but it is slightly incorrect. CIRP is geared more towards mitigating the physiological effects of an accident or incident. Pilot Peer Support, on the other hand, is a separate committee that can help pilot's and their families manage stress that may or may not be work related. It is administered by the Aeromedical Group within the Air Safety Organization similar to CIRP, but can elevate treatment to a therapist/psychologist in a manner that does not threaten your medical certificate if the counsel of a trained volunteer is not enough. I apologize for being pedantic, but I would hate for someone reaching out for help to call the wrong committee and be turned away because it was not work related. I'm only speaking up because I've seen it happen. Perhaps I just read "or equivalent" and thought "oh no its gonna happen again!". Not all Central Air Safety Committees are structured the same and the volunteers are often times not cross trained or interested in their sister program(s).

Additionally, if you are at an AA or AA Wholly Owned property you can take advantage of Project Wingman; another peer support program.

Peer support isn't really my realm, but I understand how uncomfortable and confusing the road can be to getting help. If you are not comfortable speaking up on your own or don't know where to go, feel free to pm me and I will do my best to put you in touch with someone that can help.
 
I come from a non union regional who was passionate about how they cut minimum credit and that helped them avoid furloughs in the past. Although it seems like a lot say that method won't work or be beneficial enough to keep more or all (remaining) on property even with the ERP/LOA programs.

I'm more willing to trust ALPA on this than a past recruiter, but I'm not sure I understand the math on it since an ALV reduction does sound beneficial? Maybe point being the money saved won't be enough to make any reasonable impact.

Either way, I'd rather just get furloughed and spend a few years away and keep the contract as it is than blow it up and come back spending another decade getting it back to where it is.
 
I had to stop looking at APC for SJI’s situation. It was getting really ridiculous. No other company with a ERP, ETO, ExTO, etc. has lowered ALV/TLV so why do they all think that’s a thing? Neither the MEC nor the company has said a single word about it.

For what it’s worth, I think a reduced line value is the most self correcting concession a group can give. The biggest downside is that if furloughs are going to happen anyway, then lowering the guarantee really messes those guys up.




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I wish I had a dollar for everytime I’ve said:

“I think I’ll wait and see what actually comes out for a vote, educate myself, and vote on that...”.
 
Flyinthrew said:
I had to stop looking at APC for SJI’s situation. It was getting really ridiculous. No other company with a ERP, ETO, ExTO, etc. has lowered ALV/TLV so why do they all think that’s a thing? Neither the MEC nor the company has said a single word about it.

For what it’s worth, I think a reduced line value is the most self correcting concession a group can give. The biggest downside is that if furloughs are going to happen anyway, then lowering the guarantee really messes those guys up.




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Talk to your ALPA reps, often. And if they suck, talk to another councils ALPA reps. DTW has, in my opinion, the best communications and leadership and I kind of just ignore my actual LEC — not that they suck it’s just I don’t have the same well-honed rapport but I’m sure they’re noble people but don’t offer the same level of access and information.

A good friends of mine knows some people in certain places and nothing on APC has even been close. Pilots don’t like “fluidity” and the situation is heavily dynamic. Nervous, measured day-over-day improvements, but are we approaching a cliff, or are we approaching a launchpad?
 
Derg said:
Talk to your ALPA reps, often. And if they suck, talk to another councils ALPA reps. DTW has, in my opinion, the best communications and leadership and I kind of just ignore my actual LEC — not that they suck it’s just I don’t have the same well-honed rapport but I’m sure they’re noble people but don’t offer the same level of access and information.

A good friends of mine knows some people in certain places and nothing on APC has even been close. Pilots don’t like “fluidity” and the situation is heavily dynamic. Nervous, measured day-over-day improvements, but are we approaching a cliff, or are we approaching a launchpad?
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The pessimist that I shove down is wondering if a lot of airlines will stay in a mode of holding back until other airlines start moving. Will this lead to some furloughs even if passengers come back in the Fall? Already, some airlines are filling rows and others are happy continuing to keep passengers separated. I’m not seeing the gamesmanship to steal passengers that happens when capacity is increasing. If this continues through the end of the year, the “Xxxxx will be a smaller airline” might become the rule rather than the pep talk. I hope not.


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I don’t know, but what I do know is that it’s all about yield.

Some people on my pilot groups FB page was bitching because the airline he commuted on was packed to the gills and “WE GOTTA DO THIS”

But if you look at the specific airline, who isn’t a LCC or ULCC, you can fly a pretty popular city-pair for about $70 one way. Some of that is a ”Hail Mary” because they’re burning more cash than everyone else.

Butts in seats is really a challenging metric to judge performance at this point.
 
Derg said:
I don’t know, but what I do know is that it’s all about yield.

Some people on my pilot groups FB page was bitching because the airline he commuted on was packed to the gills and “WE GOTTA DO THIS”

But if you look at the specific airline, who isn’t a LCC or ULCC, you can fly a pretty popular city-pair for about $70 one way. Some of that is a ”Hail Mary” because they’re burning more cash than everyone else.

Butts in seats is really a challenging metric to judge performance at this point.
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It’s only one statistic. My concern is that this Fall will be a race to save money and employees will be another statistic.


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