Furlough Estimates

QXDX said:
This morning I discovered that a tracing API file was uploaded to my phone, courtesy of the Google. In a nutshell it is supposed to alert you when you have been in the vicinity of someone who has tested positive for COVID-19. Things like that are what is contributing to and building the mass hysteria surrounding COVID-19. It's a virus that something like 99% of people recover from, without hospitalization. Yet the general perception seems to be if you don't stay home, wear a mask, and socially distance, you're marked for death. This perception is what is causing people to, among other things not travel.

There is so much confusing, inaccurate and (in some cases, deliberately) misleading information out there that it is causing would be travelers to literally cower in fear. May I respectfully suggest that, instead of spending 99 pages talking about who is going to get furloughed and when, it might be more productive to encourage our respective professional groups to advocate for air travel. They have the resources and manpower to cut through the noise and get the real information out there.
Click to expand...

Yes there sure is and your post is one of them. You are conflating death rate, hospitalization rate, and infection rate. All mean very different things but all related. This idea that if you follow social distancing or wear a mask equates to "cowering in fear" is ridiculous. I wont even bother typing out the arguments because they have been debated ad-nauseam. If we decide as a sociatey and country that opening up for the economy is the right move then I'm ok with that as I do think there is certainly a death rate associated with a depression level economy. With that said Its pretty tireing hearing pilots talk about how its entirely fear based and that doing anything other than opening is just cowering. It's such a simple minded take on such a complicated problem.
 
Comair 100ER said:
Cuz it infringes upon mah rights!!!
Click to expand...

You’re not winning anybody over when the battle cry admits that 99.9% of younger people will live after getting mild to moderate symptoms, and all we are really doing is trying to spare the elderly folks because they are the ones predominantly dying. And then you consider most dying were within ~5 yrs of the natural lifespan, attacking the younger folks is only going to wear their patience thin before they just say eff it. Turning a fight against the virus has not only become politicized, the govt has destroyed the economic well being of the younger ones. And now with no jobs and economic means destroyed, people are ridiculing these younger groups and taking a holier than thou attitude against them. It’s going to back fire.

I wear a mask when I go out. However, anything more than 2 hrs breathing is hard. The cloth starts to move in and out with nostril breathing. Then I find myself touching the mask to adjust it. That isn’t safe either because inevitable you’ll touch your eye or near it. The 4.5 hr flight from LA to DTW was tough having the mask in the whole flight. But I did it, the flight was packed full.


Here in Michigan where I am now, restaurants are open, and I’d say about 80% are not wearing masks. If it wasn’t for those ~20% wearing a mask, I can’t even tell there’s a viral pandemic here.
 
roundout said:
Let's forget about both of our levels of education in infectious diseases and epidemiology and cut to a self-centered chase. If taking people's temperatures, wearing masks, and having beaucoup hand sanitizer available in the airport would make travelers feel safe, thereby saving even one single job at one airline (not just pilots jobs, mind you), why on Earth would we encourage people to do anything other than happily and proudly wear masks? Why would you encourage people to "get the real information" if masking up makes people feel confident enough to fly?
Click to expand...
People would be confident to fly if masks, hand sanitizers etc were not in their face.

N95 will protect you but not others.
Surgical will protect others but not you.

See any issues?
 
Cherokee_Cruiser said:
...


Here in Michigan where I am now, restaurants are open, and I’d say about 80% are not wearing masks. If it wasn’t for those ~20% wearing a mask, I can’t even tell there’s a viral pandemic here.
Click to expand...
People wear the mask (most do, anyway) while moving through the facility. They come off when seated at your socially distanced table.
 
Has a major airline ever filed for bankruptcy without pilots on furlough?

----------------------------------

Also here is new Call to Action from ALPA to ask your government representatives to protect our CBAs in the event of bankruptcy.
 
Yakob said:
Seems especially weird to call Texas "middle America" considering it's on the south edge of the country rather than near the middle.
Click to expand...

Up the street in Missouri, there’s “Mid Continent International” :)
 
roundout said:
I see lots of issues. plugging our ears, saying "LALALALALALA I CAN'T HEAR YOU" and hoping it goes away isn't an effective solution to the problems we're facing.
Click to expand...

Maybe it’s not me with their head in the sand.

that’s a mortality rate of .0039 or 0.4%
That’s a big difference from the current 5.1%

www.reuters.com

Coronavirus may have infected 10 times more Americans than reported, CDC says

Government experts believe more than 20 million Americans could have contracted the coronavirus, 10 times more than official counts, indicating many people without symptoms have or have had the disease, senior administration officials said.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
 
Last edited:
AAPalmTree said:
Maybe it’s not me with their head in the sand.

that’s a mortality rate of .0039 or 0.4%
That’s a big difference from the current 5.1%

www.reuters.com

Coronavirus may have infected 10 times more Americans than reported, CDC says

Government experts believe more than 20 million Americans could have contracted the coronavirus, 10 times more than official counts, indicating many people without symptoms have or have had the disease, senior administration officials said.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
Click to expand...

Of course more people have been infected than reported! That's what happens when you don't have an effective testing mechanism.

I am not going to sit here and discuss epidemiology with airline pilots; I am not qualified, nor are you. The plain and simple fact here is that WE need people to fly if we want to have jobs. Period. If there is a way to cajole people back in to airports, I am all for it. We all should be.
 
Does anyone have any positive news to share about the state of the industry or future of the industry? I’m not saying that to be facetious, I’m genuinely asking.

Flying around the country, it’s encouraging to see that many terminals are not the complete ghost towns they were at “the bottom” of the shutdown. However, my gut feeling (worth nothing) about where all headed over the months ahead is not good. The media is talking about the resurgence of COVID cases which is undoubtedly going to effect passenger confidence, TSA passenger count improvement is crawling and stagnating at around 80% below Y.O.Y. demand, the major carriers doing economic gymnastics to maximize their liquidity, airlines are asking for a second round of government funding/bailouts this week, etc. Obviously we don’t need a 100% or better recovery to pull out of this, but we still need to double passenger numbers to even approach 50% of 2019’s passenger count numbers.

I’m hoping passenger counts are limited by capacity in the system right now and we see significant gains in July with added capacity at most airlines.
 
roundout said:
Of course more people have been infected than reported! That's what happens when you don't have an effective testing mechanism.

I am not going to sit here and discuss epidemiology with airline pilots; I am not qualified, nor are you. The plain and simple fact here is that WE need people to fly if we want to have jobs. Period. If there is a way to cajole people back in to airports, I am all for it. We all should be.
Click to expand...
That’s exactly what I’m saying. People would be flying if this didn’t get blown out of proportion. Maybe if we start relaying the actual facts to the public people will return.
 
SlumTodd_Millionaire said:
You're making an assumption that I don't think can be safely made. You assume that more people would travel if they "felt safe." I'm not sure that this is correct. I'm not traveling until the mask requirement gets lifted, because I can't feel comfortable wearing a mask for hours at a time. I know I'm not alone in that. It is entirely a matter of guesswork right now as to which will result in more people deferring travel.
Click to expand...

Sweet Jesus you’re a pansy.
 
zVo said:
Does anyone have any positive news to share about the state of the industry or future of the industry? I’m not saying that to be facetious, I’m genuinely asking.
Click to expand...
Yeah.... there is a thread all about positive trends just under this one.
 
amichael said:
Has a major airline ever filed for bankruptcy without pilots on furlough?

----------------------------------

Also here is new Call to Action from ALPA to ask your government representatives to protect our CBAs in the event of bankruptcy.
Click to expand...
Yeah, they won't and can't. Even if the reps make a law it won't hold up.

This isn't Germany, as much as I love this country we've got too many centuries of past practice as a corporatocracy. In Germany when the company folds all the money goes to the employees and then whoever they owe bills to.
 
AAPalmTree said:
That’s exactly what I’m saying. People would be flying if this didn’t get blown out of proportion. Maybe if we start relaying the actual facts to the public people will return.
Click to expand...

Applying facts and logic when feelings and fear are at full throttle...
 
roundout said:
Applying facts and logic when feelings and fear are at full throttle...
Click to expand...
4828FE42-1DEF-42D6-BBDA-82322009B819.gif
 
AAPalmTree said:
People would be flying if this didn’t get blown out of proportion.
Click to expand...

Flying - to where? My offices are all closed, so I'm not going to be flying to them like I normally would. Festivals, sporting events and music events I would travel to are also not happening. Until those things return, a very sizeable chunk of demand is probably just not there.
 
drunkenbeagle said:
Flying - to where? My offices are all closed, so I'm not going to be flying to them like I normally would. Festivals, sporting events and music events I would travel to are also not happening. Until those things return, a very sizeable chunk of demand is probably just not there.
Click to expand...

maybe your office would still be open if it wasn’t for the panic.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top