Furlough Estimates

Once all the travel restrictions lift I’m betting people will get right back to their normal travel patterns. For the last 2.5 months the first 10-15 stories on apple news were all about it. Since states started reopening, cases are dropping and the protests started not one corona story was in the top 10.

I’m going with a massively overblown picture of wrecked economies and people not going anywhere for years. Kind of like how they originally said rona was going to kill 2 million people.

I would be delighted to be wrong, and the May jobs report gives me hope that I am. I didn't expect riots this soon, and if they have really cured the virus then it's a really hopeful sign.
 
I apologize, should have said quotes not email. He has a paragraph of quotes on the jet net article about summer flying that just came out and he’s quoted on some financial articles as well. The point is the additional flights are due to demand not just throwing seats out there.
Interesting stuff in the 8k as well.
 
I would be delighted to be wrong, and the May jobs report gives me hope that I am. I didn't expect riots this soon, and if they have really cured the virus then it's a really hopeful sign.

Please don’t make a cartoon out of a very personal issue for some of us.

It’s a minor inconvenience for some, a heavily emotional issue for many.

I don’t require an explanation.
 
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Everyone (except SWA apparently) is planning on shrinking. AS stated that demand is expected to be 35% down for next summer but to capitalize on opportunities we're thinking of being 20% less - not 35. I don't doubt that AS will jump in quickly where they see opportunities.

They’ll jump in quickly with QX and OO since they aren’t losing any airframes.
 
You heard it hear second. AAL will go bankrupt -- only a matter of when and how. Given the size, it will keep operating. But even a brief glance at the financials and outlook says that it is a near certainty. Doesn't really matter who is in charge, there is so much debt and no credible way to service it. The only good way to spend money now is on lobbyists to try for better bailout packages, but even that won't matter. Just my opinion here, take if for what it is worth (not much).

In totally made up numbers, I would describe the situation as having $4,000 in the bank, owing $59,000 in credit card bills, being unemployed with 3 kids in college with tuition bills coming due. And your net worth being tied up in amway and herbalife inventory in a rented garage.


I keep hearing this. Everyone is convinced AAL is going bankrupt. If you truly believe that, then go deep on put options.
 
Everyone is convinced AAL is going bankrupt.
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EK laid of somewhere between 600 and 800 pilots today. It is done out of seniority based on unknown metrics. Reportedly another 700 or so next week. I have heard 400 Airbus and 200 Boeing today. The metrics might be, in no specific order:

Number of sick calls
Warning letter on file
Training proficiency
Age to retirement

They also might be, in no specific order:

Family name
Family connections
Individual connections
Ability to ingratiate themselves to one of the first three
 
There may be some Ohana guys on here who know better, but I think that has more to do with a lot of their pilots bailing for other jobs than anything else.

Come Oct 1st we’ll be in the dark times. Better to get a head start now if one knows they’ll be affected. Those pilots bailing, to where? There aren’t many pilot jobs left and as the year progresses there really won’t be any jobs left in aviation.
 
Come Oct 1st we’ll be in the dark times. Better to get a head start now if one knows they’ll be affected. Those pilots bailing, to where? There aren’t many pilot jobs left and as the year progresses there really won’t be any jobs left in aviation.

Yep. All networking contacts have been pinged. Not much out there. Light jet SIC and a few other jobs I didn’t think I’d be doing again.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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