Furlough Estimates

Piedmont has been hiring my colleagues into a pool like crazy. Their $18k bonus is contractual so it’s not going away. If I’m not mistaken Piedmont is pretty small and only operates 50 seaters. The recruiter/interviewer has said they “only hangared 5 jets”.

Anybody know what’s behind this? A lot of people have just assumed that the both Piedmont and the 50 seaters were DOOOOOMED! Could it be that AAG is really gonna pull off whistling past the grave yard?


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Flyinthrew said:
Piedmont has been hiring my colleagues into a pool like crazy. Their $18k bonus is contractual so it’s not going away. If I’m not mistaken Piedmont is pretty small and only operates 50 seaters. The recruiter/interviewer has said they “only hangared 5 jets”.

Anybody know what’s behind this? A lot of people have just assumed that the both Piedmont and the 50 seaters were DOOOOOMED! Could it be that AAG is really gonna pull off whistling past the grave yard?


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I think we are seeing a divergence in management cultures. AS, UAL, DAL are all planning for about 70 percent of 2019. They are going to shrink to a zero cash burn and hold on until things return.

SWA and AA are planning on a rebound and are trying to keep employees on standby or shed older employees to keep the ones that will work longer than 3-5 years happy.

Only one camp is going to be correct. The winning camp will eat the others lunch.
 
Flyinthrew said:
Piedmont has been hiring my colleagues into a pool like crazy. Their $18k bonus is contractual so it’s not going away. If I’m not mistaken Piedmont is pretty small and only operates 50 seaters. The recruiter/interviewer has said they “only hangared 5 jets”.

Anybody know what’s behind this? A lot of people have just assumed that the both Piedmont and the 50 seaters were DOOOOOMED! Could it be that AAG is really gonna pull off whistling past the grave yard?


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I was told we’re hiring into a pool. We used to average 130~ hard lines in Philly pre covid and were back up to 73 for July. Things are steadily picking up
 
zVo said:
United announced an additional 1,591 displacements today. Meanwhile, AA’s stock is up over 40% on announcement that AA is adding back domestic capacity in July (roughly 55% YOY).
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The stock will soon crater when Dougie the DUI wonder is shown to be deranged when demand doesn’t return and he files for bankruptcy. Anybody who believes that Bastian is wrong and Dougie is a genius hasn’t been paying attention for a very long while now. It’s easy to see who the horse to bet on is here.

Southwest is a different animal, though. Virtually no international exposure and a balance sheet that any airline would drool over. Gary can afford to take a gamble and see how the demand is. No one else has the balance sheet. Especially American.
 
BEEF SUPREME said:
I think we are seeing a divergence in management cultures. AS, UAL, DAL are all planning for about 70 percent of 2019. They are going to shrink to a zero cash burn and hold on until things return.

SWA and AA are planning on a rebound and are trying to keep employees on standby or shed older employees to keep the ones that will work longer than 3-5 years happy.

Only one camp is going to be correct. The winning camp will eat the others lunch.
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So much for Alaska being in a position to jump into new opportunities, our management is so inept they’d have trouble jumping into the ocean from the beach anyhow.
 
BEEF SUPREME said:
I think we are seeing a divergence in management cultures. AS, UAL, DAL are all planning for about 70 percent of 2019. They are going to shrink to a zero cash burn and hold on until things return.

SWA and AA are planning on a rebound and are trying to keep employees on standby or shed older employees to keep the ones that will work longer than 3-5 years happy.

Only one camp is going to be correct. The winning camp will eat the others lunch.
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I think you're wrong here, actually, and Alaska is a (reasonably) good example of why shrinking 30% and then bringing people back quickly is doable.

And it has to do with the number of fleet types.

If you're a 737 FO, and you're gone for 6 months, but still within your original recurrent footprint, if you're brought back to the 737 it's likely that all you've got to do is MV/LOE and a quick OE trip and you're back in business.

It's when you're out longer than a year that things get complicated, and then the company has to start incurring large training costs for requalification training.

Now if you're working at Delta, and you're a 767 FO that gets furloughed, and you get brought back to the company after 6 months as a 717 FO, you've obviously got to go through training again.

The airlines with fewer fleet types (or better, a single fleet type) can accept furloughs for significantly shorter periods of time. This also means that those airlines can flex their size reasonably quickly when bringing people back, depending on what their training manual says.
 
BEEF SUPREME said:
Yeah but...

One culture is planning on shrinking and others not.

No?
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I'm saying some companies can get away with shrinking, while others can't. Some companies (Southwest being the best example) could flex their size dramatically inside a 12 month window without too much trouble, training cost, or training backlog. They could furlough half their list and bring them all back within 3 months without a single hiccup.

Your qualifications don't necessarily disappear as soon as you're on furlough.

Not every airline is rigged to required a furlough to last 18 months for it to make financial sense.
 
BEEF SUPREME said:
Yeah but...

One culture is planning on shrinking and others not.

No?
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?

Everyone (except SWA apparently) is planning on shrinking. AS stated that demand is expected to be 35% down for next summer but to capitalize on opportunities we're thinking of being 20% less - not 35. I don't doubt that AS will jump in quickly where they see opportunities.
 
Cherokee_Cruiser said:
In all likeliness Buses be goin:


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you can add boy bands to dead grandma on the “do not post about” list.
 
SlumTodd_Millionaire said:
The stock will soon crater when Dougie the DUI wonder is shown to be deranged when demand doesn’t return and he files for bankruptcy. Anybody who believes that Bastian is wrong and Dougie is a genius hasn’t been paying attention for a very long while now. It’s easy to see who the horse to bet on is here.
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You heard it hear second. AAL will go bankrupt -- only a matter of when and how. Given the size, it will keep operating. But even a brief glance at the financials and outlook says that it is a near certainty. Doesn't really matter who is in charge, there is so much debt and no credible way to service it. The only good way to spend money now is on lobbyists to try for better bailout packages, but even that won't matter. Just my opinion here, take if for what it is worth (not much).

In totally made up numbers, I would describe the situation as having $4,000 in the bank, owing $59,000 in credit card bills, being unemployed with 3 kids in college with tuition bills coming due. And your net worth being tied up in amway and herbalife inventory in a rented garage.
 
drunkenbeagle said:
You heard it hear second. AAL will go bankrupt -- only a matter of when and how. Given the size, it will keep operating. But even a brief glance at the financials and outlook says that it is a near certainty. Doesn't really matter who is in charge, there is so much debt and no credible way to service it. The only good way to spend money now is on lobbyists to try for better bailout packages, but even that won't matter. Just my opinion here, take if for what it is worth (not much).

In totally made up numbers, I would describe the situation as having $4,000 in the bank, owing $59,000 in credit card bills, being unemployed with 3 kids in college with tuition bills coming due. And your net worth being tied up in amway and herbalife inventory in a rented garage.
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I see you’ve been watching “Becoming A God In Central Florida”!
 
Flyinthrew said:
Piedmont has been hiring my colleagues into a pool like crazy. Their $18k bonus is contractual so it’s not going away. If I’m not mistaken Piedmont is pretty small and only operates 50 seaters. The recruiter/interviewer has said they “only hangared 5 jets”.

Anybody know what’s behind this? A lot of people have just assumed that the both Piedmont and the 50 seaters were DOOOOOMED! Could it be that AAG is really gonna pull off whistling past the grave yard?


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Click to expand...
So are you hiring? Is that what I hear?
 
drunkenbeagle said:
You heard it hear second. AAL will go bankrupt -- only a matter of when and how. Given the size, it will keep operating. But even a brief glance at the financials and outlook says that it is a near certainty. Doesn't really matter who is in charge, there is so much debt and no credible way to service it. The only good way to spend money now is on lobbyists to try for better bailout packages, but even that won't matter. Just my opinion here, take if for what it is worth (not much).

In totally made up numbers, I would describe the situation as having $4,000 in the bank, owing $59,000 in credit card bills, being unemployed with 3 kids in college with tuition bills coming due. And your net worth being tied up in amway and herbalife inventory in a rented garage.
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You sound like a financial analyst for seeking alpha.
 
Once all the travel restrictions lift I’m betting people will get right back to their normal travel patterns. For the last 2.5 months the first 10-15 stories on apple news were all about it. Since states started reopening, cases are dropping and the protests started not one corona story was in the top 10.

I’m going with a massively overblown picture of wrecked economies and people not going anywhere for years. Kind of like how they originally said rona was going to kill 2 million people.
 
learhawkerbe400 said:
Once all the travel restrictions lift I’m betting people will get right back to their normal travel patterns. For the last 2.5 months the first 10-15 stories on apple news were all about it. Since states started reopening, cases are dropping and the protests started not one corona story was in the top 10.

I’m going with a massively overblown picture of wrecked economies and people not going anywhere for years. Kind of like how they originally said rona was going to kill 2 million people.
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Did you read Vasu’s email? Was pretty informative about our July schedule.
 
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