Furlough Estimates

I don't know. He was fired a few years after for some kind of sexual harassment scandal.

I think that’s the one.


Folks, if you’re gonna have an affair, don’t use the company email addresses. That doesn’t tend to end well when the husband of the HR lady sees the affair emails between his HR wife and the CP, and then decides to spite her by blasting the entire email chain to pilots and FAs at Frontier.
 
Ha! I had a similar experience at Frontier in 2014.

Interviewed, and absolutely nailed it. The best interview I've ever had.

Did a a final Chief Pilot meet and greet with JP, who was a total jerk right off the bat and basically interrogated me on why I would stay at Frontier if Delta called. Apparently I should have lied when asked if I had apps out to any other airlines.

Get a TBNT letter a few days later.
We had the same interview.
 
Care to expound on this theory?

It's not the best theory but Expressjet is downgrading all but 150 CA's...its a senior, top heavy airline. Not sure if they can sustain a profitable business with 40 145's and a senior pilot group. A merger could happen I suppose. All speculation obviously.
 
It's not the best theory but Expressjet is downgrading all but 150 CA's...its a senior, top heavy airline. Not sure if they can sustain a profitable business with 40 145's and a senior pilot group. A merger could happen I suppose. All speculation obviously.

That's 600 weeks of vacation right there, which means nearly 600 months off under that contract.

They don't have 150 captains, they have 100 captains; each only work 2/3 of the year, and it takes 150 to cover the work of 100.
 
That's not sustainable is it?

Depends. United owns ExpressJet now, so they can funnel as much money as they want into it. In the grand scheme of things, it's probably cheap to keep the airline running for a while, but it'll need to fit into whatever strategy united is planning to execute.
 
Depends. United owns ExpressJet now, so they can funnel as much money as they want into it. In the grand scheme of things, it's probably cheap to keep the airline running for a while, but it'll need to fit into whatever strategy united is planning to execute.

My gut instinct tells me that a small regional that is "top heavy" with super senior guys will always struggle against the latest regurgitation of another regional with junior guys and street captains.
 
My gut instinct tells me that a small regional that is "top heavy" with super senior guys will always struggle against the latest regurgitation of another regional with junior guys and street captains.

That's certainly been the model in the past.

But who knows what the model is in the future. In normal times I'd agree with you, but we're living in anything but normal times.
 
Sounds like Expressjet and Air Wisconsin could cease to exist. What other regionals are in the "danger zone"? Piedmont? CommutAir?

Hard to say. Travel is still down 85-90% and nobody knows where the turning point is. I'd imagine that, by the end of summer, we'll have a clearer picture of what October 1st will bring. If the WARN Act applies, there may be news as early as August 2nd.

Anywhere with UAX 50 seaters is at risk given some of the conjecture by United executive leadership since COVID was unleashed. GoJet may be in trouble since Compass & TSA folded under TSH. Piedmont, Envoy, PSA ... consolidation or shutdown seems inevitable on the current trajectory of AAG, but it's all speculation as to what everything may look like when this thing is said and done.

The whole regional industry is going to look different when all is said and done... smaller (shrinking), bigger (mainline scope relief), consolidation, etc., really anything is on the table. One thing is certain though -- SkyWest isn't going out of business. They own their jets and have significant leverage in the FFD market.
 
One thing is for sure, this is an unforgiving industry. So amazing in the good times and so dismal in the bad times. I barely missed the cut by about 130 people. Had I stayed at Frontier I would have been about 50% on the list there or if I had taken the class at Hawaiian instead of Delta maybe I would be better off now? But I cant questions those decisions now because at the time, at least to me, it was a no brainier to go to Delta and I think I'm still glad I did. Whats dissapointing is that it occured to me that being furloughed is like erasing your seniority and starting over in a sense. Being recalled eventually will be like being a new hire in some ways (Start at the bottom in NYC). It will be years before we hire again.
Were you a waterski guy in a former life?
 
Depends. United owns ExpressJet now, so they can funnel as much money as they want into it. In the grand scheme of things, it's probably cheap to keep the airline running for a while, but it'll need to fit into whatever strategy united is planning to execute.
They aren’t the only one United has a financial stake in. Both now redundantly fly the 50 seaters and both amount to rounding errors in the greater budget scheme. XJT getting then losing the 175's I think shows there isn't necessarily benefit to having been backed by United.
 
They aren’t the only one United has a financial stake in. Both now redundantly fly the 50 seaters and both amount to rounding errors in the greater budget scheme. XJT getting then losing the 175's I think shows there isn't necessarily benefit to having been backed by United.

Honestly? XJT has been screwed since Continental spun them off.
 
My gut instinct tells me that a small regional that is "top heavy" with super senior guys will always struggle against the latest regurgitation of another regional with junior guys and street captains.
And yet somehow XJT (and especially ASA) is still around having been this way the last 15
years so who knows.
 
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