Furlough Estimates

ZapBrannigan said:
From the earnings call:

-And so I think as a rule of thumb, you all should assume that we will schedule more than we'll fly.

-it's sort of a two-pronged effort. Tom's team will publish a reduced schedule, which, believe it or not, takes quite a bit of technological effort to accomplish. And then Mike's team, on an operating basis, days ahead of a scheduled flight, will go in and cancel aggressively.

- It's just -- honestly, it's a lot easier to take capacity out than it is to put capacity back in.

-We have product out of the shelf, if you will. And if the product isn't selling, we'll take it out. That's what the operation is like, we'll take it and then you'll see we'll pull the capacity out. It's just very hard to put it back in. So I'd rather have it on hand and pull it out as necessary.


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Crockrocket94 said:
However- they can't furlough a bunch of us and then expect to fly a full schedule. Even if they reduce flights they have EETO/ETO and Early Sep packages to run off. Just say its good news Zap. SAY IT!!
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Fine. It's good news. Hopefully it sticks.


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Flyinthrew said:
I can't honestly figure out why Delta is acting the way they are. Delta and United, really. Everybody else is projecting a relatively positive outlook while these two just keep putting out either absolutely nothing or beyond sobering negativity.
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Delta and United are very dependent on international travel. That is still dead, and will take a long time to resume and get anywhere near previous levels. I was in Narita yesterday, and it was absolutely deserted. Just ONE flight out that morning, to Hong Kong on JAL. A 787 that had maybe 25 people on it. My understanding is that JAL operates it primarily for cargo. There were a couple more flights in the afternoon.

American is of course in the same boat as them, but it seems like their strategy is to hope that travel does ramp up to previous levels.

US domestic travel will obviously pick up quicker, so it makes sense that SWA and the LCCs are planning differently.
 
GypsyPilot said:
Delta and United are very dependent on international travel. That is still dead, and will take a long time to resume and get anywhere near previous levels. I was in Narita yesterday, and it was absolutely deserted. Just ONE flight out that morning, to Hong Kong on JAL. A 787 that had maybe 25 people on it. My understanding is that JAL operates it primarily for cargo. There were a couple more flights in the afternoon.

American is of course in the same boat as them, but it seems like their strategy is to hope that travel does ramp up to previous levels.

US domestic travel will obviously pick up quicker, so it makes sense that SWA and the LCCs are planning differently.
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SWA and the LCCs rely on the recreational traveler. There's a discussion about which comes back first. Short term with people spending their Trump bucks maybe, but if the economic situation continues as predicted, I wouldn't count on much recreational travel in the 6-36 month time frame. Interesting times...
 
GypsyPilot said:
Delta and United are very dependent on international travel. That is still dead, and will take a long time to resume and get anywhere near previous levels. I was in Narita yesterday, and it was absolutely deserted. Just ONE flight out that morning, to Hong Kong on JAL. A 787 that had maybe 25 people on it. My understanding is that JAL operates it primarily for cargo. There were a couple more flights in the afternoon.

American is of course in the same boat as them, but it seems like their strategy is to hope that travel does ramp up to previous levels.

US domestic travel will obviously pick up quicker, so it makes sense that SWA and the LCCs are planning differently.
Click to expand...
I thought Delta did the least international out of the big 3 and had JV's do a majority of flying. Something that was being negotiated. Nevertheless, still all 3 "rely" on international.
 
GypsyPilot said:
Delta and United are very dependent on international travel. That is still dead, and will take a long time to resume and get anywhere near previous levels. I was in Narita yesterday, and it was absolutely deserted. Just ONE flight out that morning, to Hong Kong on JAL. A 787 that had maybe 25 people on it. My understanding is that JAL operates it primarily for cargo. There were a couple more flights in the afternoon.

American is of course in the same boat as them, but it seems like their strategy is to hope that travel does ramp up to previous levels.

US domestic travel will obviously pick up quicker, so it makes sense that SWA and the LCCs are planning differently.
Click to expand...
-I can definitely understand that for United who is pushing 200 wide bodies. It's just that Delta, in the past, was often characterized as a domestic airline with some international. I totally dig making the conservative play. It's usually smart, but it's difficult to understand what they're doing. Why not pitch the early retirement plan BEFORE the displacement bid so you don't run into the problem of 90 million cascading training events?

-I get that the LCCs are going to go hard, but getting in a capacity dumping pissing contest is literally a competition for world's stupidest airline. They tried that already. Everybody loses.

-Is AA just trying to whistle past the graveyard or do they just have this thing dialed in?
 
Flyinthrew said:
-I can definitely understand that for United who is pushing 200 wide bodies. It's just that Delta, in the past, was often characterized as a domestic airline with some international. I totally dig making the conservative play. It's usually smart, but it's difficult to understand what they're doing. Why not pitch the early retirement plan BEFORE the displacement bid so you don't run into the problem of 90 million cascading training events?

-I get that the LCCs are going to go hard, but getting in a capacity dumping pissing contest is literally a competition for world's stupidest airline. They tried that already. Everybody loses.

-Is AA just trying to whistle past the graveyard or do they just have this thing dialed in?
Click to expand...

These are all excellent questions and observations. Definitely seems like some WSB YOLO going on with AA, but hopefully they're right.
 
Flyinthrew said:
I can't honestly figure out why Delta is acting the way they are. Delta and United, really. Everybody else is projecting a relatively positive outlook while these two just keep putting out either absolutely nothing or beyond sobering negativity.
Click to expand...

Im looking at it from the outside, but it really seems like a bad idea. I mean, don’t lie to everybody. But delta has a relatively happy workforce. Just seems weird to pee on the pool unnecessarily. Especially with their early move of not considering early retirements.
 
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