Furlough Estimates

Alaska's new Airbus reduction to Boeing vacancy bid came out today but the company saying it's very likely to be cancelled. This bid was effective Nov 1 which means if they wanted to furlough then that would have to be effective Dec 1. Why would you want to cancel this bid? So you can furlough Oct 1?

I got LAX 737 CA on this one, but it's most likely meaningless.
 
ZapBrannigan said:
I don't believe that has ever been attempted and would be a third rail issue industrywide. There is nothing that would galvanize the entire profession than a furlough out of seniority. Think nationwide work stoppage.


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I certainly don't support furloughing out of seniority, but how much does it really matter if something galvanizes the profession at a time when there will be thousands of unemployed pilots to take their place? I don't see how we as a profession have any leverage right now.

SlumTodd_Millionaire said:
Theoretically a judge could approve that under an 1113(c) filing. I don't believe it's ever been done, though, and you'd have to find a very anti-labor bankruptcy judge to allow it. I don't see it even being tried.
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Would it be that hard to find such an anti-labor judge? U.S. courts are the most anti-labor they've been in decades and only becoming more anti-labor by the day.
 
Cherokee_Cruiser said:
Alaska's new Airbus reduction to Boeing vacancy bid came out today but the company saying it's very likely to be cancelled. This bid was effective Nov 1 which means if they wanted to furlough then that would have to be effective Dec 1. Why would you want to cancel this bid? So you can furlough Oct 1?

I got LAX 737 CA on this one, but it's most likely meaningless.
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Where did you hear that?

Yeah saw your name, have fun spending 1000 days in seattle for training! :biggrin:

It's been so long since I saw a real company do a bid, it's worth mentioning for the room that this company has a habit of doing position bids for WAY out in the future and then cancels them. Why, I have no idea. Oh and they only publish official seniority lists when they feel like it, so who knows how many actual pilots there are.
 
Yakob said:
Hard to make even somewhat accurate predictions right now. But my guess is that by this time next year SkyWest will be the only remaining regional and every other regional will have been "Compassed". Not sure how much SkyWest might need to furlough.
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Well thats a grim prediction haha
 
Skåning said:
Where did you hear that?

Yeah saw your name, have fun spending 1000 days in seattle for training! :biggrin:

It's been so long since I saw a real company do a bid, it's worth mentioning for the room that this company does position bids for WAY out in the future and then cancels them. Why, I have no idea
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It’s on the first page of the bid packet. In JL letter to the pilots.


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BEEF SUPREME said:
It’s on the first page of the bid packet. In JL letter to the pilots.


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Oh gotcha, I usually disregard anything ladner says and just assume he's a puppet. After reading it seems clear, cancel the bid and give notice of the furloughs. Then collect the ashes and stick them in 737s
 
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I hate to say this, but it does look likely. Why make new vacancies now? Cancel bid, then do a pure reduction (furlough) bid and make it effective Oct 1. Cheapest option for company. :(
 
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Yakob said:
Hard to make even somewhat accurate predictions right now. But my guess is that by this time next year SkyWest will be the only remaining regional and every other regional will have been "Compassed". Not sure how much SkyWest might need to furlough.
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Don’t do that to the guy. Keith, Yakob is what you might call one of the more optimistic amongst us.

Unless you think AA is going to bring regional flying in house the WOs will probably be ok. Furloughs will happen and somebody can probably make a good case for a merger to get rid of some management overhead, but it’s going to be okay. There’s a reason Atlas is hiring so hard right now. Even the people who like it there say it sucks. Live in base, get TPIC, and never count on the flow. Those are the constants that I’m seeing across time as I listen to the oral history of the industry.


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Flyinthrew said:
Don’t do that to the guy. Keith, Yakob is what you might call one of the more optimistic amongst us.

Unless you think AA is going to bring regional flying in house the WOs will probably be ok. Furloughs will happen and somebody can probably make a good case for a merger to get rid of some management overhead, but it’s going to be okay. There’s a reason Atlas is hiring so hard right now. Even the people who like it there say it sucks. Live in base, get TPIC, and never count on the flow. Those are the constants that I’m seeing across time as I listen to the oral history of the industry.


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What about 9E?
 
Cherokee_Cruiser said:
Alaska's new Airbus reduction to Boeing vacancy bid came out today but the company saying it's very likely to be cancelled. This bid was effective Nov 1 which means if they wanted to furlough then that would have to be effective Dec 1. Why would you want to cancel this bid? So you can furlough Oct 1?

I got LAX 737 CA on this one, but it's most likely meaningless.
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No way this bid is standing, it will be cancelled and there will be a reduction bid for downgrades and furloughs with an October 1 effective date.
I don’t know why they even bothered to publish this one.
 
BEEF SUPREME said:
Out of the frying pan and into the fire. Its amazing how fast we went from no bad choices to no good choices. In the blink of an eye...

For those considering freight with a lot of seniority at a regional I'd be hesitant to leave. Unless your regional was going away altogether. A friend who runs freight via trucks says that he is down over 40%. They have thousands furloughed. It may be good for now but eventually the economic consequences of what we have done will come home to roost. I'd be careful about being at the bottom of the seniority list at a freight operator.
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Do you poll your friends that drive busses to gauge wants going to happen at the airlines?
You're clueless as usual.
 
mikecweb said:
Do you poll your friends that drive busses to gauge wants going to happen at the airlines?
You're clueless as usual.
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Hey so if you could stop interacting with me. That would be great. I have no idea why you continue to do it. Can't you just ignore my posts and move on with your life?
 
BEEF SUPREME said:
Hey so if you could stop interacting with me. That would be great. I have no idea why you continue to do it. Can't you just ignore my posts and move on with your life?
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see now...funny thing with ignore posts function.....it goes both ways... just saying.... Proactive vs Reactive.... ;-)
 
KeithLewis900 said:
What about 9E?
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On the one hand, I want to say something encouraging about DAL having just cut the fat a few weeks prior to Covid going crazy. On the other hand, DAL doesn’t exactly have the best track record with their WOs. Also, their scope section makes me go cross-eyed, but I’m guessing that retiring 50 NBs and 18 WBs ain’t great for the regional partners. It’s anybody’s guess.


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