Furlough Estimates

tcco94 said:
And 9/11 furloughs had multiple setbacks that hurt the airline industry for many years.

And if you read the comment I already said "I'm not sure why anyone thinks 9/11 or 08 furlough numbers are going to be accurate. Not just because of the future but also because of how much worse this was for our industry "

But again - back to my point. Where is any reasonable data about how legacies and many carriers can cut so deep like the rhetoric is, and have any plan in the future to recover? Unless that is we are saying a 10 year recovery for demand to rebound. Which is fine but just state that next to the "deepest furlough ever". Because that seems to be the only plausible scenario that happens. I'm not saying it's wrong, just no one is posting or citing their reasoning.

Just saying the sky is blue, this is horrible for our industry, biggest furlough ever.
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Mergers solve the problem you're positing, and have been used for that purpose in the past.

Don't have enough people? Go buy some.
 
Roger Roger said:
Given that NY is testing at about 20% infected, and 60% needed to get the magical herd immunity, it seems pretty friggin obvious. No other city in the US has even close to that level of immunity. The other alternative is we drive it to extinction or at least containment like rational people have been rooting for since day 1.
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m.washingtontimes.com

Coronavirus hype biggest political hoax in history

The new coronavirus is real. The response to the coronavirus is hyped. And in time, this hype will be revealed as politically hoaxed.
m.washingtontimes.com m.washingtontimes.com
 
AAPalmTree said:
m.washingtontimes.com

Coronavirus hype biggest political hoax in history

The new coronavirus is real. The response to the coronavirus is hyped. And in time, this hype will be revealed as politically hoaxed.
m.washingtontimes.com m.washingtontimes.com
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The Washington Times? Urgent care doctors from Bakersfield? Excellent sourcing. You might as well ask @WacoFan for tips on programming an FMS.

www.splcenter.org

The Washington Times Has History of Hyped Stories, Shoddy Reporting and Failing to Correct Errors

The Washington Times has a long record of hyped stories, shoddy reporting and failure to correct errors
www.splcenter.org www.splcenter.org
 
MikeD said:
Like I said, JC has been making APC look civil, factual, and informative.

Thats a not a good look
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Eh... JC has been more like a dramatic family, knockdown drag-out fight over the Thanksgiving or Christmas dinner with family lately.

Where your dad is a rabid Trump fan and wears the red MAGA hat at the dinner table. You're a liberal Bernie bro who stayed home and didn't vote for Hillary in 2016 or voted and wasted your vote by writing in Bernie and are now trying to decide if you're voting for Biden. Or going to do the write-in thing again, waste your vote and keep your mouth shut for the next four years if Trump is reelected. Or vice versa depeding on political affliation.

Your older brother is having a midlife crisis, his kids hate him and he's getting a divorce from his wife of thirty-year because he cheated with the 18 yr. babysitter and brings said babysitter to Christmas dinner. Cashed out his 401k, got hair transplant surgery and is driving a new convertible 2019 Corvette Z06 and says the babysitter Natasha, is his true soulmate and not Karen his estranged wife.

Your younger brother dropped out, or was kicked out of college for a full-blown Hunter Biden-like crack, coke problem. And he shows up to dinner looking disheveled and wanting money.

Meanwhile, mom is hiding out in the bathroom with the door locked, smokes a pack of Marlboro Reds a day, is slightly wasted, and is a functional alcoholic with a closet opioid addiction.

Meanwhile APC is 8Chan or Incel.net. Or the friggin' gutter comment section of a YT video or Breitbart.com. And every time you log in, it feels like you're reading another depressing article on Seeking Alpha about worst-case scenarios for airline furloughs.

As crazy dysfunctional and depressing as fighting with your family, is in the family situation, its your family. You know them, you're familiar, even if you might hate each other and can't get along but smile, hug and fake that you do. It's the devil you know vs. the one that you don't. I'd much rather rage and drunk fight with my family than macho, strangers, or internet, incel cowboy commanders online if it were me all the same to me.

Just my take.
 
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MikeD said:
Like I said, JC has been making APC look civil, factual, and informative.

Thats a not a good look
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It’s not a good look. I think it’s the corona views coming to a head. It’s been extremely interesting from a sociological angle. It has divided people for the most part based on political views. One side views the other as controlling and the other as reckless. I think this it is the root of what one dislikes about the other side. One side is viewed as impacting income and freedom. The other side viewed as a threat of safety. It’s definitely a hot topic. I don’t agree with the other side and can understand how they would disagree with me. I hope it’s salvageable.
 
Roger Roger said:
Yeah, it might only be 500k.
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I think that’s a reasonable estimate. And we should all get used to that number and learn to live with it.

tcco94 said:
To those saying we will have the deepest furloughs we have seen at legacies, why is there no discussion about the training max capacity to recover from this? If you furlough 15-20% and see a need for callbacks in 2 years minimum (as most unions are projecting a 18-24 month need for it be cost beneficial) how can you bring back your 15-20% and train to offset the retention you'll have for the next year's to follow? You would start bleeding unless you could increase your training capacity otherwise you are talking about 4 years (possibly 5 years) to bring back your furloughs and trained. Then your staffing lists are down 25% in 5 years. And that doesn't stop. You have another 25% or more to leave the next 5 years, meanwhile you've only just got done training your 20%+ furloughs? So then by 2030 how could you ever recover with th training outflow barely being able to cover the band-aid of attrition, even if demand and the economy is there?

I think no doubt we get some cuts but it's very curious listening to the folks here. It's like a broken record player. You have Todd interjecting his random retired opinions, Cherokee Cruiser every week or so repeats his "BuT ReTiReMenTs" and then leaves the conversation to come back with a tabloid on Delta, someone comes in and throws a random number out in the air for pax demand, furlough projection or coronavirus has a 17% death rate in my grandmothers gated community and then the cycle just repeats.

No one is even taking about the problems faced ahead or anything to explain their furlough projection. They are using 9/11 and the great recession as data. I just don't get it. Is anyone going to address how this is plausible? Is spirit going to be larger than Delta, United and American then in 2030?

As unprecedented as these times are today in this crisis, we still have huge hurdles ahead and could have unprecedented outcome on the other side of this. I'm not sure why anyone thinks 9/11 or 08 furlough numbers are going to be accurate. Not just because of the future but also because of how much worse this was for our industry than those 2 and how 2021 plays out is literally anyone's guess.
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tcco94 said:
Not at all I'm talking about a 10 year timeline recovery.
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If you agree with me that we‘re looking at a decade for full recovery, then I don’t see how you’re perplexed about the furlough projections. I could see your confusion if you believe things would be back to 2019 levels in a few years, but if you acknowledge that we’re looking at a 10 year recovery, then what exactly is confusing you about our predictions of mass furloughs?
 
SlumTodd_Millionaire said:
I think that’s a reasonable estimate. And we should all get used to that number and learn to live with it.




If you agree with me that we‘re looking at a decade for full recovery, then I don’t see how you’re perplexed about the furlough projections. I could see your confusion if you believe things would be back to 2019 levels in a few years, but if you acknowledge that we’re looking at a 10 year recovery, then what exactly is confusing you about our predictions of mass furloughs?
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Even if I agree that it is going to take 10 yers to get back to 2019 levels of passenger traffic, the fact is that half or greater of the seniority lists at many airlines will be gone by then. Will those retirements save furloughs in Q4 '20? Not really. The companies have to get cash burn to zero before they can think about anything else, and it is in the interest of the greater good that they do so. They're mostly saying they expect that by the end of the year. I've been following SJI's arc through this mess. Not being an airline guy, it is an incredible lesson in labor relations. SJI is setting their pilot group up for about a 15-20% cut basing their numbers on what they expect demand to require in Summer '21. They've baked retirements through Summer '21 into their numbers. Assuming they nailed that forecast and then zero growth or contraction and nobody leaving the seniority list early, they would STILL have to start recalling in late '21 just to keep their active pilot group the same size, and everybody that is going to come back would be back in just under about 5 years. Then they have to start hiring about 4-600 a year. Of course you can be always more or less optimistic. Most people default to more optimistic. I do. I'm much more optimistic. Some go way in the other direction, and that's okay, too.

The other item that Taco brought up was training churn. The size of this problem at the legacies is just unbelievable. It may prevent some furloughs depending on what their regonkulators say is a good balance, but either way it is not good for the company as a whole. It will dictate how fast furloughs happen and how fast they bring people back. The single fleet companies have a really big advantage in this regard, but it probably means furloughs happen harder and faster for the pilot group.
 
Flyinthrew said:
Even if I agree that it is going to take 10 yers to get back to 2019 levels of passenger traffic, the fact is that half or greater of the seniority lists at many airlines will be gone by then. Will those retirements save furloughs in Q4 '20? Not really. The companies have to get cash burn to zero before they can think about anything else, and it is in the interest of the greater good that they do so. They're mostly saying they expect that by the end of the year. I've been following SJI's arc through this mess. Not being an airline guy, it is an incredible lesson in labor relations. SJI is setting their pilot group up for about a 15-20% cut basing their numbers on what they expect demand to require in Summer '21. They've baked retirements through Summer '21 into their numbers. Assuming they nailed that forecast and then zero growth or contraction and nobody leaving the seniority list early, they would STILL have to start recalling in late '21 just to keep their active pilot group the same size, and everybody that is going to come back would be back in just under about 5 years. Then they have to start hiring about 4-600 a year. Of course you can be always more or less optimistic. Most people default to more optimistic. I do. I'm much more optimistic. Some go way in the other direction, and that's okay, too.

The other item that Taco brought up was training churn. The size of this problem at the legacies is just unbelievable. It may prevent some furloughs depending on what their regonkulators say is a good balance, but either way it is not good for the company as a whole. It will dictate how fast furloughs happen and how fast they bring people back. The single fleet companies have a really big advantage in this regard, but it probably means furloughs happen harder and faster for the pilot group.
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There's a reason Delta is reducing the number of categories they have.
 
SlumTodd_Millionaire said:
I think that’s a reasonable estimate. And we should all get used to that number and learn to live with it.




If you agree with me that we‘re looking at a decade for full recovery, then I don’t see how you’re perplexed about the furlough projections. I could see your confusion if you believe things would be back to 2019 levels in a few years, but if you acknowledge that we’re looking at a 10 year recovery, then what exactly is confusing you about our predictions of mass furloughs?
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I acknowledge that for your scenario of a 10 year recovery, it makes sense. I don't think we are going to take that long. And I know a large group here doesn't either. But some of the same people are echoing mass furloughs. Or just throwing numbers out
 
A lot of you guys aren’t old enough or just weren’t in the industry back around 9/11 to remember these same kind of conversations taking place. In the 97-01 timeframe, talking about the “oncoming rush of Vietnam era pilots retirements and the coming pilot shortage” was all the rage. Then 9/11 hit and Zap was furloughed for 7 years.

Gearing up for increased pilot hiring when needed is a lot easier than burning $70-$100 million a day.
 
typhoonpilot said:
The Fascist conception of the State is all-embracing; outside of it no human or spiritual values can exist, much less have value. Thus understood, Fascism is totalitarian, and the Fascist State—a synthesis and a unit inclusive of all values—interprets, develops, and potentiates the whole life of a people.
— Doctrine of Fascism, 1935

This is certainly the direction that CNN would have us go. Sad, that it only takes one generation to forget how easy it is for a populace to let the government have total control over your life. There are actually politicians dictating who can open their stores; when they can open their stores; how they can open their stores; and what fines and jail time they can expect if they don't follow the government's rules. Some posters here will be out there as the first volunteers in this fun new social experiment of fascism enforced by their neighbors:


Slap an OVRA or Gestapo logo on their clothes and call it good.
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You're comparing CNN to Mussolini? You think that a media conglomerate has the same force and effect as a fascist dictator, a person who allied themselves with Hitler, who committed multiple war crimes, who was executed by firing squad?

CNN has never committed a war crime.
 
SlumTodd_Millionaire said:
A lot of you guys aren’t old enough or just weren’t in the industry back around 9/11 to remember these same kind of conversations taking place. In the 97-01 timeframe, talking about the “oncoming rush of Vietnam era pilots retirements and the coming pilot shortage” was all the rage. Then 9/11 hit and Zap was furloughed for 7 years.

Gearing up for increased pilot hiring when needed is a lot easier than burning $70-$100 million a day.
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I definitely am, but I'm just trying to stay hopeful for me to be back in 2-3 years. I know more can happen to extend it, and I will plan my employment for the case of if I don't get back for longer.
 
jtrain609 said:
You're comparing CNN to Mussolini? You think that a media conglomerate has the same force and effect as a fascist dictator, a person who allied themselves with Hitler, who committed multiple war crimes, who was executed by firing squad?

CNN has never committed a war crime.
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The way some go on and on about 'the media' is simply exhausting.

iu
 
@tcco94 — these two sum it up pretty well. Come 1 OCT, a fully-staffed airline is going to be hemorrhaging cash. Planes are put to bed and people are still getting paid? The companies can’t go too long because they still need money on-hand (or arranged) to operate in (if it goes that way) bankruptcy. There will be down-grade delays with training, but really, until they can fill all the staffed planes to 90(?)%, it has to be cheaper to not sell tickets, than have too many employees and not enough seats being sold.

Open questions:
Any CA’s doing right seat quals during recurrent lately?
Could bankruptcy filing alleviate the need to furlough based on seniority?


BEEF SUPREME said:
Because this is worse for passenger traffic than 9/11 and 2008, combined.

This is going to be worse than anything we have seen before.
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SlumTodd_Millionaire said:
Gearing up for increased pilot hiring when needed is a lot easier than burning $70-$100 million a day.
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deadstick said:
@tcco94 Could bankruptcy filing alleviate the need to furlough based on seniority?
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I don't believe that has ever been attempted and would be a third rail issue industrywide. There is nothing that would galvanize the entire profession than a furlough out of seniority. Think nationwide work stoppage.


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