Furlough Estimates

Yakob said:
Would it be that hard to find such an anti-labor judge? U.S. courts are the most anti-labor they've been in decades and only becoming more anti-labor by the day.
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Airline bankruptcies, for a variety of reasons, are always filed in the southern district of New York. It’s a relatively small group of experienced bankruptcy judges who handle these things, and I don’t see any of them approving something so crazy. Big pay cuts? Yeah. Work rules gutted? A given. Scope eviscerated? Probably so. But they’ll respect seniority.
 
tcco94 said:
What is the pay cut usually like in bankruptcy? 20%?
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A good friend at American Airlines was asked to vote on a 45-50% pay cut to prevent a bankruptcy right around 2004 I believe. Long story short it didn't prevent a bankruptcy. The execs on the board gave themselves a golden parachute of around 7 million each.

Of course this is all from my buddy who is just a line pilot.
 
BEEF SUPREME said:
A good friend at American Airlines was asked to vote on a 45-50% pay cut to prevent a bankruptcy right around 2004 I believe. Long story short it didn't prevent a bankruptcy. The execs on the board gave themselves a golden parachute of around 7 million each.

Of course this is all from my buddy who is just a line pilot.
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Nah, furlough me over that please. I’d like to come back to something worthwhile.
 
BEEF SUPREME said:
A good friend at American Airlines was asked to vote on a 45-50% pay cut to prevent a bankruptcy right around 2004 I believe. Long story short it didn't prevent a bankruptcy. The execs on the board gave themselves a golden parachute of around 7 million each.

Of course this is all from my buddy who is just a line pilot.
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Yeah assuming no concessions as pretty much every legacy learned their lesson 2 decades ago, I wonder what the cut is just with a judge. I thought SJI did the same and saw concessions and bankruptcy cut their pay 40% in 05
 
Flyinthrew said:
Don’t do that to the guy. Keith, Yakob is what you might call one of the more optimistic amongst us.

Unless you think AA is going to bring regional flying in house the WOs will probably be ok. Furloughs will happen and somebody can probably make a good case for a merger to get rid of some management overhead, but it’s going to be okay. There’s a reason Atlas is hiring so hard right now. Even the people who like it there say it sucks. Live in base, get TPIC, and never count on the flow. Those are the constants that I’m seeing across time as I listen to the oral history of the industry.


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I don't know who you talked to, but Atlas doesn't suck. In fact if I move on from Atlas, I will be the envy of every cockpit I fly in. There is no job that is as fun as Atlas, now the management team sucks and either doesn't care or doesn't understand what pilots want.
 
JEP said:
see now...funny thing with ignore posts function.....it goes both ways... just saying.... Proactive vs Reactive.... ;-)
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The freight operator is 6th or 7th in the nation in terms of size. Generally his numbers are a really good economic indicator. Personally I wouldn't dive to the bottom of the list at a place like Atlas with 60% seniority. Hell I'd kill for that kind of seniority at SkyWest right now.
 
Gonzo said:
I don't know who you talked to, but Atlas doesn't suck. In fact if I move on from Atlas, I will be the envy of every cockpit I fly in. There is no job that is as fun as Atlas, now the management team sucks and either doesn't care or doesn't understand what pilots want.
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How's the pay?
 
BEEF SUPREME said:
Hey so if you could stop interacting with me. That would be great. I have no idea why you continue to do it. Can't you just ignore my posts and move on with your life?
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Trust me, I ignore most of your drivel but when you start giving advice i need to speak up in case someone actually thinks you know what you're talking about. You really don't have a clue, stop.
 
mikecweb said:
Trust me, I ignore most of your drivel but when you start giving advice i need to speak up in case someone actually thinks you know what you're talking about. You really don't have a clue, stop.
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Oh look. Another overweight, mouth breather that I need not pay attention to.
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ZapBrannigan said:
I think the "worldwide shortage of pilots" just self corrected. So we're good.


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For the sake of a discussion - this is making the pilot shortage worse, I think.
If I remember the previous UAL furlough recall numbers correctly (ballpark), they were expecting around 70% to come back on their last big furlough. Ended up being 45%. They didn't like it, ran numbers to keep everyone on board the next economic downturn, then this happened and all the numbers were out of the window.
However, the key idea remains - of those pilots that never came back not everyone just up and left for another airline/corporate gig. Some just changed careers, and there were quite a few of those.
So that's factor number one - if we do get long and massive furloughs, there will be pilots that change careers. Even in the regional world, many of my classmates were career changers or former pilots that sat out the lost decade elsewhere (I know a Comair guy and a Colgan guy who worked as firefighters before going back to the airlines for example. Also guys that were on sales, driving freight trains, you name it) - my bet would be that many of these would go do something else, and not necessarily drop it all again when the airline calls.
Then there is the guys and girls currently building time or training. Some will slug it out, some won't and will go to different careers, some will go to different jobs to pay off their flight training loans. Also with the industry not looking pretty, fewer people will choose to enter the flight training. End result - fewer new pilots.
At the end of the day, unless we stay in the lockdown, or a substantial percentage of the population dies in the pandemic, or an alternate method of transportation is created, travel will come back to the old numbers, if not more (because Americans are soft and hate being locked up and omg left without their restaurants and other ways to partake in the consumer society thing :)) - but there will be even less pilots to fly them. Which is why I think things like Propel and Aviate will hang around and a full blown airline ab initio will be back on the table in 5 years or so.
But that's just my crystal balling.
 
ZapBrannigan said:
In my experience pilots are collectively greedy, selfish, right wing, tinfoil hat wearing conspiracy nuts and part time preppers who I wouldn't allow to park my car or prepare my food... much less manage my personal finances.


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Preach!

Not only are my colleagues idiot-savant virologists, they know exactly how to run an airline too.
 
BigZ said:
For the sake of a discussion - this is making the pilot shortage worse, I think.
If I remember the previous UAL furlough recall numbers correctly (ballpark), they were expecting around 70% to come back on their last big furlough. Ended up being 45%. They didn't like it, ran numbers to keep everyone on board the next economic downturn, then this happened and all the numbers were out of the window.
However, the key idea remains - of those pilots that never came back not everyone just up and left for another airline/corporate gig. Some just changed careers, and there were quite a few of those.
So that's factor number one - if we do get long and massive furloughs, there will be pilots that change careers. Even in the regional world, many of my classmates were career changers or former pilots that sat out the lost decade elsewhere (I know a Comair guy and a Colgan guy who worked as firefighters before going back to the airlines for example. Also guys that were on sales, driving freight trains, you name it) - my bet would be that many of these would go do something else, and not necessarily drop it all again when the airline calls.
Then there is the guys and girls currently building time or training. Some will slug it out, some won't and will go to different careers, some will go to different jobs to pay off their flight training loans. Also with the industry not looking pretty, fewer people will choose to enter the flight training. End result - fewer new pilots.
At the end of the day, unless we stay in the lockdown, or a substantial percentage of the population dies in the pandemic, or an alternate method of transportation is created, travel will come back to the old numbers, if not more (because Americans are soft and hate being locked up and omg left without their restaurants and other ways to partake in the consumer society thing :)) - but there will be even less pilots to fly them. Which is why I think things like Propel and Aviate will hang around and a full blown airline ab initio will be back on the table in 5 years or so.
But that's just my crystal balling.
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Not too many jobs that have pay well into six figures, excellent retirement, etc. Most people that find a side gig selling insurance or something will come running back to their legacy gig very quickly.

Also, during the last big round of furloughs a lot of the guys from places like UAL went to FDX, UPS, some corporate gigs, etc. That's probably not going to happen in large numbers again.

Finally, the rest of the economy is pretty ugly. My friends in engineering are suffering bleak times as well. I'm not sure what kind of amazing gigs are out there for people to run off to for a new career.
 
ZapBrannigan said:
In my experience pilots are collectively greedy, selfish, right wing, tinfoil hat wearing conspiracy nuts and part time preppers who I wouldn't allow to park my car or prepare my food... much less manage my personal finances.


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Derg said:
Preach!

Not only are my colleagues idiot-savant virologists, they know exactly how to run an airline too.
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Yet, you people want to meet up with them for food/drinks during the layover. :eek2:
 
GypsyPilot said:
Not too many jobs that have pay well into six figures, excellent retirement, etc. Most people that find a side gig selling insurance or something will come running back to their legacy gig very quickly.

Also, during the last big round of furloughs a lot of the guys from places like UAL went to FDX, UPS, some corporate gigs, etc. That's probably not going to happen in large numbers again.

Finally, the rest of the economy is pretty ugly. My friends in engineering are suffering bleak times as well. I'm not sure what kind of amazing gigs are out there for people to run off to for a new career.
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Wrote a bunch, but meh. It's all guesses at this point.
We'll see when the dust settles.
 
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