Furlough Estimates

Anyone are to predict the outcome of the regionals? Wholly owns safer than non-wholly owns? Say I'm in the top 30% of a wholly-owned, should I be safe assuming the airline doesn't go under?
 
jtrain609 said:
FIFY.

Age 65 was a collosal hit to the career progression of a huge number of pilots.
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Yes. Speaking personally, there is no question in my mind that had retirement age remained at 60 for the balance of the furlough (and then raised once everyone was back on property) I'd be a Captain at American Airlines right now.

Because of what they did, many of us - myself included - gave up our numbers and changed the trajectory of our careers. After all, how long do you wait for your prom date to ask you to dance again after she ditches you on the curb?


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I’m at 66%ish relative seniority at an AA wholly-owned regional, would have been eligible to upgrade this spring (before the ‘rona), and am pondering options.

I have a CJO at Atlas/Southern where I could get a new type and international heavy experience. It’s only SIC time, but I’d be logging SIC time at my regional for likely the next year (if not much longer depending on the recovery and the state of AAG). Am I better to just ride this out and hope for an upgrade in a couple years (and maybe take a concessionary contract) or pivot and try something new?

p.s. FWIW, the end goal is to go to a major carrier (legacy or U/LCC) or UPS, FDX. I had received interview invites with B6 and F9 at the end of Feb. ... not sure if they’ll still call me after the dust settles and hiring picks up again.
 
Maximillian_Jenius said:
Eh... JC has been more like a dramatic family, knockdown drag-out fight over the Thanksgiving or Christmas dinner with family lately.

Where your dad is a rabid Trump fan and wears the red MAGA hat at the dinner table. You're a liberal Bernie bro who stayed home and didn't vote for Hillary in 2016 or voted and wasted your vote by writing in Bernie and are now trying to decide if you're voting for Biden. Or going to do the write-in thing again, waste your vote and keep your mouth shut for the next four years if Trump is reelected. Or vice versa depeding on political affliation.

Your older brother is having a midlife crisis, his kids hate him and he's getting a divorce from his wife of thirty-year because he cheated with the 18 yr. babysitter and brings said babysitter to Christmas dinner. Cashed out his 401k, got hair transplant surgery and is driving a new convertible 2019 Corvette Z06 and says the babysitter Natasha, is his true soulmate and not Karen his estranged wife.

Your younger brother dropped out, or was kicked out of college for a full-blown Hunter Biden-like crack, coke problem. And he shows up to dinner looking disheveled and wanting money.

Meanwhile, mom is hiding out in the bathroom with the door locked, smokes a pack of Marlboro Reds a day, is slightly wasted, and is a functional alcoholic with a closet opioid addiction.

Meanwhile APC is 8Chan or Incel.net. Or the friggin' gutter comment section of a YT video or Breitbart.com. And every time you log in, it feels like you're reading another depressing article on Seeking Alpha about worst-case scenarios for airline furloughs.

As crazy dysfunctional and depressing as fighting with your family, is in the family situation, its your family. You know them, you're familiar, even if you might hate each other and can't get along but smile, hug and fake that you do. It's the devil you know vs. the one that you don't. I'd much rather rage and drunk fight with my family than macho, strangers, or internet, incel cowboy commanders online if it were me all the same to me.

Just my take.
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You jumped the shark, never jump the shark!

:)
 
ZapBrannigan said:
Yes. Speaking personally, there is no question in my mind that had retirement age remained at 60 for the balance of the furlough (and then raised once everyone was back on property) I'd be a Captain at American Airlines right now.

Because of what they did, many of us - myself included - gave up our numbers and changed the trajectory of our careers. After all, how long do you wait for your prom date to ask you to dance again after she ditches you on the curb?


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Brace yourselves. As soon as the pay cuts hit, the senior selfish d-bags will kick into high gear for Age 70.
 
BEEF SUPREME said:
I'm just gonna leave this here:

https://www.icao.int/Meetings/a39/Documents/WP/wp_277_en.pdf
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ZapBrannigan said:
I don't believe that has ever been attempted and would be a third rail issue industrywide. There is nothing that would galvanize the entire profession than a furlough out of seniority. Think nationwide work stoppage.


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SlumTodd_Millionaire said:
Theoretically a judge could approve that under an 1113(c) filing. I don't believe it's ever been done, though, and you'd have to find a very anti-labor bankruptcy judge to allow it. I don't see it even being tried.
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I didn’t think it had been, but with the current circumstances and some accelerated fleet retirements, I could an attempt being made.
 
tcco94 said:
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All things considered it's just better to have a plan for the worst. Without being upset or depressed about it. Just a plan to make it through the next 5 years or so. I'm adding another renter. I'm building bikes for a friend during my downtime for beer money. I applied to the local flight school and was promptly and politely rejected. No worries. I'll try and do something outside of aviation. Anything to pay the bills until Eskimo calls me back. If they ever do.
 
jtrain609 said:
The Washington Times? Urgent care doctors from Bakersfield? Excellent sourcing. You might as well ask @WacoFan for tips on programming an FMS.

www.splcenter.org

The Washington Times Has History of Hyped Stories, Shoddy Reporting and Failing to Correct Errors

The Washington Times has a long record of hyped stories, shoddy reporting and failure to correct errors
www.splcenter.org www.splcenter.org
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But...I've never flown an airplane with an FMS. Are the controls to the FMS by the tailwheel lock in most large taildraggers?
 
typhoonpilot said:
The Fascist conception of the State is all-embracing; outside of it no human or spiritual values can exist, much less have value. Thus understood, Fascism is totalitarian, and the Fascist State—a synthesis and a unit inclusive of all values—interprets, develops, and potentiates the whole life of a people.
— Doctrine of Fascism, 1935

This is certainly the direction that CNN would have us go. Sad, that it only takes one generation to forget how easy it is for a populace to let the government have total control over your life. There are actually politicians dictating who can open their stores; when they can open their stores; how they can open their stores; and what fines and jail time they can expect if they don't follow the government's rules. Some posters here will be out there as the first volunteers in this fun new social experiment of fascism enforced by their neighbors:


Slap an OVRA or Gestapo logo on their clothes and call it good.
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It's like V for Vendetta.

jtrain609 said:
You're comparing CNN to Mussolini? You think that a media conglomerate has the same force and effect as a fascist dictator, a person who allied themselves with Hitler, who committed multiple war crimes, who was executed by firing squad?

CNN has never committed a war crime.
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You missed his point. I thought lawyers were smart people.
 
Cherokee_Cruiser said:
Still. I've already heard some senior guys rumble about wanting to extend the retirement age. Pilots on an individual level are greedy ass *****
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In my experience pilots are collectively greedy, selfish, right wing, tinfoil hat wearing conspiracy nuts and part time preppers who I wouldn't allow to park my car or prepare my food... much less manage my personal finances.


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KeithLewis900 said:
Anyone are to predict the outcome of the regionals? Wholly owns safer than non-wholly owns? Say I'm in the top 30% of a wholly-owned, should I be safe assuming the airline doesn't go under?
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Nobody knows at this point, but for sure this is a bad time to go out and buy a boat

zVo said:
I’m at 66%ish relative seniority at an AA wholly-owned regional, would have been eligible to upgrade this spring (before the ‘rona), and am pondering options.

I have a CJO at Atlas/Southern where I could get a new type and international heavy experience. It’s only SIC time, but I’d be logging SIC time at my regional for likely the next year (if not much longer depending on the recovery and the state of AAG). Am I better to just ride this out and hope for an upgrade in a couple years (and maybe take a concessionary contract) or pivot and try something new?

p.s. FWIW, the end goal is to go to a major carrier (legacy or U/LCC) or UPS, FDX. I had received interview invites with B6 and F9 at the end of Feb. ... not sure if they’ll still call me after the dust settles and hiring picks up again.
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That may not be a bad idea, considering the time to flow will be really long, if at all
 
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Out of the frying pan and into the fire. Its amazing how fast we went from no bad choices to no good choices. In the blink of an eye...

For those considering freight with a lot of seniority at a regional I'd be hesitant to leave. Unless your regional was going away altogether. A friend who runs freight via trucks says that he is down over 40%. They have thousands furloughed. It may be good for now but eventually the economic consequences of what we have done will come home to roost. I'd be careful about being at the bottom of the seniority list at a freight operator.
 
Moving to the bottom of any seniority list can be very scary right now but if you aren't giving up much seniority or worry about your 135/121 regional from existing, the heavy time and type rating could be big when the hiring gates open again and everything is 10x more competitive than it once was. Unless you're giving up TPIC time then you have to out weigh which is more important. I'd stay with TPIC if that's your current position.
 
KeithLewis900 said:
Anyone are to predict the outcome of the regionals? Wholly owns safer than non-wholly owns? Say I'm in the top 30% of a wholly-owned, should I be safe assuming the airline doesn't go under?
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Hard to make even somewhat accurate predictions right now. But my guess is that by this time next year SkyWest will be the only remaining regional and every other regional will have been "Compassed". Not sure how much SkyWest might need to furlough.
 
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