Furlough Estimates

tcco94 said:
Every major city will replicate what NY went through 2-3 times?

Uhhh... That's a bold claim. Seeing as the first wave almost no major city produced anything like that. Not even remotely close. And don't tell us the virus hit them first, because data shows it hit the west coast with deaths way earlier than we thought.

This is back to the mass hysteria and fear.
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Given that NY is testing at about 20% infected, and 60% needed to get the magical herd immunity, it seems pretty friggin obvious. No other city in the US has even close to that level of immunity. The other alternative is we drive it to extinction or at least containment like rational people have been rooting for since day 1.
 
Roger Roger said:
Given that NY is testing at about 20% infected, and 60% needed to get the magical herd immunity, it seems pretty friggin obvious. No other city in the US has even close to that level of immunity. The other alternative is we drive it to extinction or at least containment like rational people have been rooting for since day 1.
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Right, because all data transfers over that easily....for our entire country.

Oh and the fatality isn't 1% so let's stop the 2 million are going to be dead. Least it's better than the predictions 22 million + dead a couple months ago. But hey, let's not talk about what we got wrong in projections. Let's just keep making new projections.

Like every major city will be stacking bodies 2-3x more in freezer trucks from the virus that doesn't even kill close to 1%. Because... Well it happened in NY. Pretty freakin obvious!!!
 
tcco94 said:
Right, because all data transfers over that easily....for our entire country.

Oh and the fatality isn't 1% so let's stop the 2 million are going to be dead. Least it's better than the predictions 22 million + dead a couple months ago. But hey, let's not talk about what we got wrong in projections. Let's just keep making new projections.

Like every major city will be stacking bodies 2-3x more in freezer trucks from the virus that doesn't even kill close to 1%. Because... Well it happened in NY. Pretty freakin obvious!!!
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Ok, whatever comfortable delusion makes you happy. It only kills lots of people in Italy, Spain, and NYC. Everyone else is immune and invincible. You got me.
 
The Fascist conception of the State is all-embracing; outside of it no human or spiritual values can exist, much less have value. Thus understood, Fascism is totalitarian, and the Fascist State—a synthesis and a unit inclusive of all values—interprets, develops, and potentiates the whole life of a people.
— Doctrine of Fascism, 1935

This is certainly the direction that CNN would have us go. Sad, that it only takes one generation to forget how easy it is for a populace to let the government have total control over your life. There are actually politicians dictating who can open their stores; when they can open their stores; how they can open their stores; and what fines and jail time they can expect if they don't follow the government's rules. Some posters here will be out there as the first volunteers in this fun new social experiment of fascism enforced by their neighbors:


Slap an OVRA or Gestapo logo on their clothes and call it good.
 
To those saying we will have the deepest furloughs we have seen at legacies, why is there no discussion about the training max capacity to recover from this? If you furlough 15-20% and see a need for callbacks in 2 years minimum (as most unions are projecting a 18-24 month need for it be cost beneficial) how can you bring back your 15-20% and train to offset the retention you'll have for the next year's to follow? You would start bleeding unless you could increase your training capacity otherwise you are talking about 4 years (possibly 5 years) to bring back your furloughs and trained. Then your staffing lists are down 25% in 5 years. And that doesn't stop. You have another 25% or more to leave the next 5 years, meanwhile you've only just got done training your 20%+ furloughs? So then by 2030 how could you ever recover with th training outflow barely being able to cover the band-aid of attrition, even if demand and the economy is there?

I think no doubt we get some cuts but it's very curious listening to the folks here. It's like a broken record player. You have Todd interjecting his random retired opinions, Cherokee Cruiser every week or so repeats his "BuT ReTiReMenTs" and then leaves the conversation to come back with a tabloid on Delta, someone comes in and throws a random number out in the air for pax demand, furlough projection or coronavirus has a 17% death rate in my grandmothers gated community and then the cycle just repeats.

No one is even taking about the problems faced ahead or anything to explain their furlough projection. They are using 9/11 and the great recession as data. I just don't get it. Is anyone going to address how this is plausible? Is spirit going to be larger than Delta, United and American then in 2030?

As unprecedented as these times are today in this crisis, we still have huge hurdles ahead and could have unprecedented outcome on the other side of this. I'm not sure why anyone thinks 9/11 or 08 furlough numbers are going to be accurate. Not just because of the future but also because of how much worse this was for our industry than those 2 and how 2021 plays out is literally anyone's guess.
 
tcco94 said:
To those saying we will have the deepest furloughs we have seen at legacies, why is there no discussion about the training max capacity to recover from this? If you furlough 15-20% and see a need for callbacks in 2 years minimum (as most unions are projecting a 18-24 month need for it be cost beneficial) how can you bring back your 15-20% and train to offset the retention you'll have for the next year's to follow? You would start bleeding unless you could increase your training capacity otherwise you are talking about 4 years (possibly 5 years) to bring back your furloughs and trained. Then your staffing lists are down 25% in 5 years. And that doesn't stop. You have another 25% or more to leave the next 5 years, meanwhile you've only just got done training your 20%+ furloughs? So then by 2030 how could you ever recover with th training outflow barely being able to cover the band-aid of attrition, even if demand and the economy is there?

I think no doubt we get some cuts but it's very curious listening to the folks here. It's like a broken record player. You have Todd interjecting his random retired opinions, Cherokee Cruiser every week or so repeats his "BuT ReTiReMenTs" and then leaves the conversation to come back with a tabloid on Delta, someone comes in and throws a random number out in the air for pax demand, furlough projection or coronavirus has a 17% death rate in my grandmothers gated community and then the cycle just repeats.

No one is even taking about the problems faced ahead or anything to explain their furlough projection. They are using 9/11 and the great recession as data. I just don't get it. Is anyone going to address how this is plausible? Is spirit going to be larger than Delta, United and American then in 2030?

As unprecedented as these times are today in this crisis, we still have huge hurdles ahead and could have unprecedented outcome on the other side of this. I'm not sure why anyone thinks 9/11 or 08 furlough numbers are going to be accurate. Not just because of the future but also because of how much worse this was for our industry than those 2 and how 2021 plays out is literally anyone's guess.
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Are you suggesting the demand will come back almost instantaneously at some point?
 
tcco94 said:
To those saying we will have the deepest furloughs we have seen at legacies, why is there no discussion about the training max capacity to recover from this? If you furlough 15-20% and see a need for callbacks in 2 years minimum (as most unions are projecting a 18-24 month need for it be cost beneficial) how can you bring back your 15-20% and train to offset the retention you'll have for the next year's to follow? You would start bleeding unless you could increase your training capacity otherwise you are talking about 4 years (possibly 5 years) to bring back your furloughs and trained. Then your staffing lists are down 25% in 5 years. And that doesn't stop. You have another 25% or more to leave the next 5 years, meanwhile you've only just got done training your 20%+ furloughs? So then by 2030 how could you ever recover with th training outflow barely being able to cover the band-aid of attrition, even if demand and the economy is there?

I think no doubt we get some cuts but it's very curious listening to the folks here. It's like a broken record player. You have Todd interjecting his random retired opinions, Cherokee Cruiser every week or so repeats his "BuT ReTiReMenTs" and then leaves the conversation to come back with a tabloid on Delta, someone comes in and throws a random number out in the air for pax demand, furlough projection or coronavirus has a 17% death rate in my grandmothers gated community and then the cycle just repeats.

No one is even taking about the problems faced ahead or anything to explain their furlough projection. They are using 9/11 and the great recession as data. I just don't get it. Is anyone going to address how this is plausible? Is spirit going to be larger than Delta, United and American then in 2030?

As unprecedented as these times are today in this crisis, we still have huge hurdles ahead and could have unprecedented outcome on the other side of this. I'm not sure why anyone thinks 9/11 or 08 furlough numbers are going to be accurate. Not just because of the future but also because of how much worse this was for our industry than those 2 and how 2021 plays out is literally anyone's guess.
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Because this is worse for passenger traffic than 9/11 and 2008, combined.

This is going to be worse than anything we have seen before.


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BEEF SUPREME said:
Because this is worse for passenger traffic than 9/11 and 2008, combined.

This is going to be worse than anything we have seen before.


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And 9/11 furloughs had multiple setbacks that hurt the airline industry for many years.

And if you read the comment I already said "I'm not sure why anyone thinks 9/11 or 08 furlough numbers are going to be accurate. Not just because of the future but also because of how much worse this was for our industry "

But again - back to my point. Where is any reasonable data about how legacies and many carriers can cut so deep like the rhetoric is, and have any plan in the future to recover? Unless that is we are saying a 10 year recovery for demand to rebound. Which is fine but just state that next to the "deepest furlough ever". Because that seems to be the only plausible scenario that happens. I'm not saying it's wrong, just no one is posting or citing their reasoning.

Just saying the sky is blue, this is horrible for our industry, biggest furlough ever.
 
tcco94 said:
Not at all I'm talking about a 10 year timeline recovery.
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Zap was furloughed for 7 years after 9/11.

This is worse passenger traffic wise and possible worse for the economy as well.

So based on that logic a guy at the bottom of most majors seniority lists will be furloughed for longer.

It’s not like we know how bad the storm will be. It’s just massive and on the horizon and it’s gonna hit us. And it looks way worse than anything we’ve ever seen....


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It would be interesting if anyone on the internet would just admit that we have no idea. We don't know what the airline industry will look like in the coming months/years. We don't know how bad this disease is. Our models are predictably inaccurate over time, as new data presents itself. Anyone who has ever worked or studied something related to science knows that early any models are entirely fallible. Hell, just look at NHC projections for tropical storms/hurricanes. They are wildly inaccurate, with huge diversions between models at the start. Then they begin to align a couple days out. And all tell the same story 24 hours or so out. Same idea here......we are probably at about the mid Atlantic storm position right now, if we were to use this analogy. Just stop. We literally don't know. There are a few knowns, but they aren't particularly useful when it comes to guessing the future. We are basing assumptions on other bad assumptions. And I don't mean for that statement to have a particular meaning. I don't think anyone is correct right now, who claims to have the answer. But everyone needs an immediate answer to either calm themselves down, or provide ammunition for their particular slant on the issue. So tiring. I love you all though. Two things are guaranteed though....1) in time, of an unknown duration, we will have more accurate data that will be skewed and used carelessly and without actual understanding, 2) some amount of us will survive (and even the most dire projections indicate it will be more of us than not).
 
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