Furlough Estimates

Derg said:
The entire world population?

The Democrats can’t tie their shoes without tripping over themselves and putting an eye out, but a vast worldwide effort? I’m impressed! :)
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FWIW I was having a little furlough related anxiety. A weeks worth of news about how airplanes were flying deathtraps had me feeling like there was some kind of agenda to keep people from flying.

Fortunately the bad news stopped and the airline PR machine went into high gear. Delta even has an entire website with info graphs on how clean the air is in airplanes.


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///AMG said:
Grew up on the south side of the border in OR. What you say about taxes is true, especially important now that I am a WA resident/homeowner (after a long time of living all over, mostly on the east coast). That's a moderate reason to stay. The rest of the reason is that this is probably one of the most amazing, beautiful places to live in N America. I'm not leaving either.....can figure out other employment if current jobs don't work out for whatever reason.
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Agree it’s amazing and of all those places we have lived this is the first place I have not heard my wife complain once about! We’re staying.
 
jtrain609 said:
It won't be 30% if your union is worth anything. Any union who isn't creating credit caps and lowing ALV down to the bare minimum isn't actually interested in saving jobs, and that's just a starting point.
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Bahahahahahahahahahahaha! I can’t even imagine the uproar on the SWAPA forum if a rep even hinted at the suggestion of a credit cap. He’d be beaten to death with rolled up copies of Newsmax magazine the next time he showed up in the crew lounge.
 
Is reduced ALV an ask or a give? Seems like the airline would want to max out ALV on as few workers as possible. Giving dudes their direct contributions and sick days and vacation days and healthcare is 'spensive! Yet, at the same time, it seems like a large furlough would create an even larger mess of displacement bids and training. I'm not an airline guy, but where does the (multi-platform) airline fall out on that balancing act? Hell, if Delta furloughs 2000 people in October they're basically having to park 220, 717, some 737/320 just because they don't have any FOs. I know they'll train some in from July-September, but not that many. I have no data, but I don't think it would be a stretch to say that by the time everybody got on the street at 50-60 per month it would be time to start bringing them back in at 50-60 per month just to cover retirements (much less re-growth, lest I be called too positive, because as we know, demand is going to stay at 10% of 2019 levels forever, or at least until robots take over).
 
ClarkGriswold said:
Agree it’s amazing and of all those places we have lived this is the first place I have not heard my wife complain once about! We’re staying.
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Yeah, for real. My wife loved VA Beach both times we were there, but for a town that has so much less to offer in terms of commerce (a Target or Trader Joes where she can blow our money :) ) I was shocked to hear her say "I'm never leaving...I will die in this house". I guess we found the forever house lol
 
Flyinthrew said:
Is reduced ALV an ask or a give? Seems like the airline would want to max out ALV on as few workers as possible. Giving dudes their direct contributions and sick days and vacation days and healthcare is 'spensive! Yet, at the same time, it seems like a large furlough would create an even larger mess of displacement bids and training. I'm not an airline guy, but where does the (multi-platform) airline fall out on that balancing act? Hell, if Delta furloughs 2000 people in October they're basically having to park 220, 717, some 737/320 just because they don't have any FOs. I know they'll train some in from July-September, but not that many. I have no data, but I don't think it would be a stretch to say that by the time everybody got on the street at 50-60 per month it would be time to start bringing them back in at 50-60 per month just to cover retirements (much less re-growth, lest I be called too positive, because as we know, demand is going to stay at 10% of 2019 levels forever, or at least until robots take over).
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Jtrain and I both work for LCCs. Mine has only a single fleet type. There are no mass displacement/training costs like there are at the legacies. They could easily lop off a few thousand of us on a single day. Training center is pretty well maxed out at 1000 pilots per year though, so if you furlough more than 1000 better make pretty darned sure you're not going to need them back any time soon.

Our CEO sent out an email today indicating we would be overstaffed by 30% going into the fall and begging people to take voluntary leave to save jobs. That traditionally hasn't been effective among pilots. They just can't sweeten the pot enough. Its heart breaking.


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ZapBrannigan said:
Jtrain and I both work for LCCs. Mine has only a single fleet type. There are no mass displacement/training costs like there are at the legacies. They could easily lop off a few thousand of us on a single day. Training center is pretty well maxed out at 1000 pilots per year though, so if you furlough more than 1000 better make pretty darned sure you're not going to need them back any time soon.

Our CEO sent out an email today indicating we would be overstaffed by 30% going into the fall and begging people to take voluntary leave to save jobs. That traditionally hasn't been effective among pilots. They just can't sweeten the pot enough. Its heart breaking.


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One legacy thinks you guys are very well positioned to weather this well and be a major competitor on the other side of it.
Hence many things can be explained by a good old "never let a good crisis go to waste". That applies to your shop, as well as some other big airlines.
 
SlumTodd_Millionaire said:
Bahahahahahahahahahahaha! I can’t even imagine the uproar on the SWAPA forum if a rep even hinted at the suggestion of a credit cap. He’d be beaten to death with rolled up copies of Newsmax magazine the next time he showed up in the crew lounge.
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There's still guys on the forum asking for advice on what kind of RV to buy so yeah.. oblivious.


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ZapBrannigan said:
Jtrain and I both work for LCCs. Mine has only a single fleet type. There are no mass displacement/training costs like there are at the legacies. They could easily lop off a few thousand of us on a single day. Training center is pretty well maxed out at 1000 pilots per year though, so if you furlough more than 1000 better make pretty darned sure you're not going to need them back any time soon.

Our CEO sent out an email today indicating we would be overstaffed by 30% going into the fall and begging people to take voluntary leave to save jobs. That traditionally hasn't been effective among pilots. They just can't sweeten the pot enough. Its heart breaking.


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That's actually very interesting that SWA believes capacity will be up to 70% by this Fall. I hope that's true!
 
GypsyPilot said:
That's actually very interesting that SWA believes capacity will be up to 70% by this Fall. I hope that's true!
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Is that what was said or are you inferring that from the 30% reduction number? LUV controls their capacity, they don’t believe anything, they know it. Whether the revenue will be there is a separate question.
 
Flyinthrew said:
Is reduced ALV an ask or a give? Seems like the airline would want to max out ALV on as few workers as possible. Giving dudes their direct contributions and sick days and vacation days and healthcare is 'spensive! Yet, at the same time, it seems like a large furlough would create an even larger mess of displacement bids and training. I'm not an airline guy, but where does the (multi-platform) airline fall out on that balancing act? Hell, if Delta furloughs 2000 people in October they're basically having to park 220, 717, some 737/320 just because they don't have any FOs. I know they'll train some in from July-September, but not that many. I have no data, but I don't think it would be a stretch to say that by the time everybody got on the street at 50-60 per month it would be time to start bringing them back in at 50-60 per month just to cover retirements (much less re-growth, lest I be called too positive, because as we know, demand is going to stay at 10% of 2019 levels forever, or at least until robots take over).
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Our contract requires ALV to be lowered to the minimum possible in the event of furlough.
 
GypsyPilot said:
That's actually very interesting that SWA believes capacity will be up to 70% by this Fall. I hope that's true!
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It won't be up to 70% by fall.

It'll be up to 70% within the time it makes economic sense to keep 70% of the staff. That could be 6 months from the fall, 12 months, 18 months, who knows what their break even point is for making a furlough economically viable.
 
ZapBrannigan said:
Our CEO sent out an email today indicating we would be overstaffed by 30% going into the fall and begging people to take voluntary leave to save jobs. That traditionally hasn't been effective among pilots. They just can't sweeten the pot enough. Its heart breaking.


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Just to put things into perspective, didn’t Delta say they’d be overstaffed by like 7000 pilots for their Fall flying (about 50% of the group). However by the following summer they’d need need about 1/2 of that number back already. So figure SWA would be overstaffed by 30% and really only cut half and not even be close to BK. I’d say you’re in a decent spot.
 
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Baronman said:
Just to put things into perspective, didn’t Delta say they’d be overstaffed by like 7000 pilots for their Fall flying (about 50% of the group). However by the following summer they’d need need about 1/2 of that number back already. So figure SWA would be overstaffed by 30% and really only cut half and not even be close to BK. I’d say you’re in a decent spot.
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7k overstaffed in the fall
2500 next summer, possibility up to 3500
80% size in 2022, which I believe with retirements and inactive pilots they say it's close to 20%

To me I don't really understand the 2022 projections anyone is making because a lot can change (for better or worse) by then. So none of that really holds much to me.
 
Yakob said:
They'll want to but with the economy in a full blown depression few people will be able to afford airline tickets anymore. I hope I'm wrong but I suspect that with the pandemic, teleconferencing in lieu of business travel will become entrenched as the new normal, especially since businesses will need to be as lean as possible in a depression; and that concerns about catching a disease in an airline cabin will permanently singe airline travel.
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We won't really have a good picture of how budiness will be conducted until we get this pandemic under control. A lot of the hands on demo type stuff won't be easily replaced teleconferencing. You have to see and feel to truly grasp on the product side of certain industries. Quite honestly teleconference is quite boring stuff from my experience. The company that I operate an aircraft for has been quite efficient with adapting to this new way of having to do business. But I know my boss would prefer to be in the office with his employees where he and the other bosses can walk around and see all the happenings around them.
 
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