Furlough Estimates

Flyinthrew said:
Some of you I’m pretty sure are getting big ole rona-boners from all the fear porn. Everybody reacts differently to stress and I’m not judging, but you should have that looked at.
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I'm disliking this crap sandwich as much as everyone else. Actually taking vacation time right now to keep my sanity -- I would much rather be crunching numbers on how to optimize click through profits on click bait ads like normal times.
 
drunkenbeagle said:
I'm disliking this crap sandwich as much as everyone else. Actually taking vacation time right now to keep my sanity -- I would much rather be crunching numbers on how to optimize click through profits on click bait ads like normal times.
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This post really says it all. Someone who has enough income and wealth to take a vacation right now is a-okay with continuing to shut down society. Never mind the tens of millions of people out of work as a result who can’t afford to even feed and house themselves.
 
SlumTodd_Millionaire said:
This post really says it all. Someone who has enough income and wealth to take a vacation right now is a-okay with continuing to shut down society. Never mind the tens of millions of people out of work as a result who can’t afford to even feed and house themselves.
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Dude - you know where I work. It's like Black Friday level crazy, every day. And tomorrow. I was covering for a peer who took some mental health time last week, I'm doing the same right now. We're hiring lots of those millions out of work (entirely from home work in the business I'm in). I've been in touch with folks from this very forum regarding getting hired in this field, hopefully here.

But yeah - I enthusiastically support Andrew Yang'ing my ass with taxes for the duration of this to pay basic income for everyone else. My employer is more or less committed to spending everything we make right now to dealing with the Covid anyway.
 
drunkenbeagle said:
Dude - you know where I work. It's like Black Friday level crazy, every day. And tomorrow. I was covering for a peer who took some mental health time last week, I'm doing the same right now. We're hiring lots of those millions out of work (entirely from home work in the business I'm in). I've been in touch with folks from this very forum regarding getting hired in this field, hopefully here.

But yeah - I enthusiastically support Andrew Yang'ing my ass with taxes for the duration of this to pay basic income for everyone else. My employer is more or less committed to spending everything we make right now to dealing with the Covid anyway.
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Like I said, privileged in the extreme.
 
NickH said:
The unemployment rate during the 2008 recession peaked around 10%. The current unemployment rate is twice that and rising. If there are jobs that people can return to quickly, the damage will be mitigated. But 'Great Depression 2' is probably inevitable, at this point.
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Yeah, that's what elicited my statement of incredulity.

The current unemployment situation represents a large burden for folks. Per the last unemployment numbers, we're currently at rates worse than only the worst two years of the Great Depression of the thirties.

At the same time we currently have a disease that is real. It will continue to wreak death and havoc directly and indirectly.

So the question then becomes, "How do we recover most expeditiously?"

We respect science. We plan and act responsibly. We communicate science-based guidance. We encourage - and even demand - that our people act in accordance with science-based guidance.

If we held lock-down until we met science-based guidelines for reopening, we would remain locked down for some additional, but relatively short amount of time.

Instead, our "leadership" - as it was before Covid - is sewing chaos, gagging the voice of science, focusing on nefarious political goals instead of disease mitigation goals, inciting division, fomenting and abetting conspiracy theories, and encouraging people to drink Lysol. Even without a disease, that kind of bunk is extremely deleterious. With a disease, it has the very real potential to end us as the most powerful nation in the world, a position we hold only through and by the diligent work required to demonstrate our status as the moral and economic exemplar to the world.

The outcome? We are lifting lock-down prematurely based on personal whims, political pipe dreams, and not a whit of rationality. We are setting ourselves up for a second wave, likely as or more vicious than the first wave. (And for all of you who claim, "well, the first wave wasn't that bad"... Yes, it was. It's just highly likely that you didn't see it. When you know and/or see healthy 28 year olds suffer and die from this thing, it changes your perspective in a very palpable way. Sadly, as I've pointed out with regard to many, many other situations, the central intellectual curse of most humans is that they are incapable of learning unless directly and personally bonked over the head with a cast iron frying pan. "If it didn't happen to me, personally, it's just not real." Statistics can be manipulated, sure. And you've got to be able to apply critical reading skills to their interpretation, sure. Yet, stats are real. ... many of you are unquestioningly believing unemployment stats, so why is it you are soooo loathe to believe medical stats? Even if you have a propensity toward conspiracy theories... I mean, there is a high degree of incentive for unemployment stats to be manipulated. What's the incentive for manipulating medical stats?)

If we encounter a second wave, we will need to quarantine again. We will need to shut down the economy again. If that happens, we will have a much more dire outcome. The economy could tank, and for a sustained period of time. Perhaps permanently, as we try to compete with the rest of the industrialized world which did it right, is recovered, and is not encumbered by buffoons who encourage their populations to drink Lysol.

The choice is: be science-based, patriotic, responsible, and patient for a few more weeks; open per science-based guidelines, and recover in the shortest amount of time... OR, drink Lysol, go back to "normal" right now, be ravished by a second wave, and potentially place ourselves in a long-term economic Depression. Potentially become China's bitch forever, because, you know, we couldn't get our shirt together well enough to be even as smart and effective as freaking Cambodia.

So much winning is literally killing us.
 
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Crop Duster said:
Yeah, that's what elicited my statement of incredulity.

The current unemployment situation represents a large burden for folks. Per the last unemployment numbers, we're currently at rates worse than only the worst two years of the Great Depression of the thirties.

At the same time we currently have a disease that is real. It will continue to wreak death and havoc directly and indirectly.

So question then becomes, "How do we recover most expeditiously?"

We respect science. We plan and act responsibly. We communicate science-based guidance. We encourage - and even demand - that our people act in accordance with science-based guidance.

If we held lock-down until we met science-based guidelines for reopening, we would remain locked down for some additional, but relatively short amount of time.

Instead, our "leadership" - as it was before Covid - is sewing chaos, gagging the voice of science, focusing on nefarious political goals instead of disease mitigation goals, inciting division, fomenting and abetting conspiracy theories, and encouraging people to drink Lysol. Even without a disease, this kind of bunk is extremely deleterious. With a disease, it has the very real potential to end us as an moral and economic exemplar to the world.

The outcome? We are lifting lock-down prematurely based on personal whims, political pipe dreams, and not a whit of rationality. We are setting ourselves up for a second wave, likely as or more vicious than the first wave. (And for all of you who claim, "well, the first wave wasn't that bad"... Yes, it was. It's just highly likely that you didn't see it. When you know and/or see healthy 28 year olds suffer and die from this thing, it changes your perspective in a very palpable way. Sadly, as I've pointed out with regard to many, many other situations, the central intellectual curse of most humans is that they are incapable of learning unless directly and personally bonked over the head with a cast iron frying pan. "If it didn't happen to me, personally, it's just not real." Statistics can be manipulated, sure. And you've got to be able to apply critical reading skills to their interpretation, sure. Yet, stats are real. ... many of you are unquestioningly believing unemployment stats, so why is it you are soooo loathe to believe medical stats? Even if you have a propensity toward conspiracy theories... I mean, there is a high degree of incentive for unemployment stats to be manipulated. What's the incentive for manipulating medical stats?)

If we encounter a second wave, we will need to quarantine again. We will need to shut down the economy again. If that happens, we will have a much more dire outcome. The economy could tank, and for a sustained period of time. Perhaps permanently, as we try to compete with the rest of the industrialized world which did it right, is recovered, and is not encumbered by buffoons who encourage their populations to drink Lysol.

The choice is: be science-based, patriotic, responsible, and patient for a few more weeks; open per science-based guidelines, and recover in the shortest amount of time... OR, drink Lysol, go back to "normal" right now, be ravished by a second wave, and potentially place ourselves in a long-term economic Depression. Potentially become China's bitch forever, because, you know, we couldn't get our shirt together well enough to be even as smart and effective as freaking Cambodia.

So much winning is literally killing us.
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But people are gonna be back in church by easter!
 
Cherokee_Cruiser said:
Those are doomers. Yet I'm labeled a sociopath for saying that we're gonna have 500,000-1.2 million dead Americans and just accept it and move on with our lives.
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Hmmm... Have you considered that if you're being labeled a sociopath, it's probably because you are troll without empathy who does nothing to enhance the content of conversations, but rather, serves only to increase the volume of words contained in them?
 
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SlumTodd_Millionaire said:
I love science. It has nothing to do with the questions of civil liberties and economic freedom, however.
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Yes. Yes, it certainly and clearly does!!!

The Rationalist Deists who founded this country's political and economic structures implicitly understood the value of the scientific method. Their entire vision of the world -nay, reality itself- was informed by it. They were children of the "Era of Reason". The scientific method is baked into our very core. Why do you think we placed freedom of speech, press, and separation of Magic and State right at the top of the list??

It's so baked in, people don't see it anymore!!! Apparently, not even you.
 
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Crop Duster said:
Yes. Yes, it certainly and clearly does!!!

The Rationalist Deists who founded this country's political and economic structures implicitly understood the value of the scientific method. They were children of the "Era of Reason". The scientific method is baked into our core. Why do you think we placed freedom of speech, press, and separation of Magic and State right at the top of the list??

It's so baked in, apparently even you don't see it anymore!!!
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If you think any of those rationalist deists would support a governor having the unilateral authority to shut down commerce and force people to stay at home, then you know nothing of them.
 
Well, it's certainly true that I know nothing of your interpretation of them.

(Edit: that's a retarded reply... it's clearly evident I know something of your interpretation of them.)
 
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